Why has london had so few cases recently?

[yearinyearout]

What's going on here? The other day only 24 new cases, then 19, then none. I've read the news and it's not making sense to me, unless loads of people have had it and created some kind of herd immunity why is this so low?

[Calledyoulastnightfromglasgow]

I think this virus has been kicking around since January and probably loads of people have now had it. In London anyway. Not further north

[ChangingStates]

This is really interesting! Where can I find london specific data? Link posted by PP only had london specific for numbers in hospital, would like to see charts or figures for daily cases and deaths in London.
Thanks

[Doowop20]

Still odd though despite the various explanations.

[Roselilly36]

I have no faith in the reported figures.

[Doowop20]

On that antibodies thread, several people were convinced they had had the virus but tested negative. I also thought I had it after Christmas but not so sure now.

[Longwhiskers14]

As someone who lives in London I suspect that a) lots of us have already had it, as I know many people, myself included, who had flu-like symptoms in Feb/March, b) we took lockdown seriously from the off, the streets were deserted for weeks and c) despite what's been reported, we're still taking lockdown seriously, The city isn't overrun with selfish day trippers, unlike the poor countryside and coast, because nothing is open here other than the parks.

[PicsInRed]

A sample held from a patient who died in France at the end of December was subsequently tested and it was positive for this coronavirus.

Iirc, he had no travel history, so had caught it in the community.

This has been in Europe for a while.

[PicsInRed]

The city isn't overrun with selfish day trippers, unlike the poor countryside and coast...

...because they've traveled from London to the poor countryside and coast.

[MrsSchadenfreude]

We’re fairly sure DD had it in February. Subsequently found out that the hospital on her uni campus was where all of the CV cases were being taken. She had all of the symptoms. It went through her halls like a dose of salts.

[wanderings]

Because the figures are made up/adjusted to suit the agenda: they want to get people back to work now. (I’m only half joking.)

Alternatively, the figures are produced by a blindfolded Boris picking numbers out of a hat.

[TooSadToSay]

I was thinking the same PicsInRed.

[yearinyearout]

I'm not saying I believe the figures at all, but still the trend seems to be lower figures in London. What I do agree with is that it was probably here much earlier, and thousands had it mildly before tests were rolled out.

When scientists speak of herd immunity but then say some people have had this twice so that doesn't apply, could it be possible that people are immune to it maybe for a few months, which would help to lower the rate of infection, even short term?

It will be interesting to see how things develop in a week or two now people have gone back to work.

[longestlurkerever]

You can find London data here www.london.gov.uk/coronavirus/coronavirus-numbers-london though perhaps not everything you might like to know. I've been interested in this for a while - what it means to be "ahead" when we supposedly locked down nationally at the same time- immunity must be playing a part i think? Though i didn't know the confirmed cases had got so low. I have always thought that all the pics of Londoners in parks were a bit off - everyone i observed was doing their best to keep their distance even if they did sit down on the grass for a bit (likely having no garden at home). So maybe a combination of the two? Interesting and hopefully the rest of the country sees a similar pattern soon.

[Magic2020]

It does produce immunity, it's completely false that it doesn't, I see this again and again. They just don't know how long for!

[Pringletastic]

I think wanderings actually has a point. Governments are well known for manipulating figures. They want the economy back up and running, London is an international hub. It fit's their narrative at the moment and cases were going to decline anyway with the 'typical' virus life-cycle.
It's just all very convenient.

[Magic2020]

The positive tests weeks later are of dead virus - the PCR tests used to look for antigen look for specific sequences of RNA and are very sensitive. They can't tell if it's living or dead.

This guy (who's very good, and a long term lecturer and author) explains it better.

[Magic2020]

@Pringletastic No - the figures are right. I work in one of the labs, that's what we're seeing there too. It's very frustrating when no one reads or believes what I say, I would definitely say if the government were releasing figures contrary to what we're experiencing, but they're not.

[Babyboomtastic]

The '24 cases' headline was very misleading btw. That was the number of new cases there 'should be' according to modelling, not actual data. The actual data for the same day showed 49 hospital admissions, so in all likelihood there would be many hundred new infections.

[Magic2020]

That's not to say that it's not going to go up again, but at the moment it's very much down.

[Longwhiskers14]

PicsInRed

Possibly, but no one I know in London has a car and the trains aren't running so I imagine a lot of those day trippers are actually people who live closer to the coast and countryside.

[Longwhiskers14]

Magic2020 That's good to hear. I don't think the Govt would dare release false figures at this stage – the inevitable inquiry into their handling of the crisis is going to be bad enough without throwing petrol on the fire.

[Schmoana]

We haven’t seen the new cases yet resulting from the relaxation of the lockdown on 11th/13th may. There will probably be a gradual growth starting in the next week, as it infects those who have now gone back to work. But hopefully nothing major. And if the elderly and vulnerable continue to Follow the rules, hopefully the death rate will stay low.

[attackedbycritters]

They have been saying for many weeks that the R in London is much lower than elsewhere. That would bring the number of infections down fast

[AdoreTheBeach]

I personally only know one person in the UK who had it (quite badly, 6 weeks in ICU and was in a ventilator) but it’s is a friend’s sister in law so not even close to me. I live in a commuter belt for London and this lady lives in Manchester. My DH only knows of Acquaintances, former Work colleagues from 20 something years ago who got it and then only 3 (thank goodness). These are all City people.

None of my daughters’ friends who live in London/work in London had it either.

So I believe The 5% number. I don’t believe that it’s higher.

[Magic2020]

I wonder if the sunshine might be contributing to slower transmission too - after all, UV light is used to sterilise (not in a Trumpian way through the veins, just to sterilise surfaces).