Why has london had so few cases recently?

[yearinyearout]

What's going on here? The other day only 24 new cases, then 19, then none. I've read the news and it's not making sense to me, unless loads of people have had it and created some kind of herd immunity why is this so low?

Despite what the papers and the irate neighbours on here, I think London has complied with the rules on social distancing. We also had more cases than anywhere else for longer than anyone else.

Now lots of people are back at work and back commuting, I wonder if we will see an increase in a few weeks.

Regardless, this is potentially good news.

I work in Westminster and live in north London. Practically everyone i know had some kind of virus in feb/march and wondered if it was "it" though very few marched the official criteria. Several colleagues have since tested positive for antigen and several local teachers were part of a trial and tested positive for antibodies

My son thinks that he had it in January. His flatmate returned from China in February and developed classic CV symptoms. He was quite ill, but when he went to the hospital in London, they refused to test him.

I also remember all the threads where someone who'd been to London/lived in London queried a weird virus and were told to stop being an attention seeking drama llama.

Everyone who has had a test seemed "pretty sure they had it" but, as far as I understand it, the statistics show only 10 or 20% of them actually did.

I'm very relieved that you posted Magic2020 and let's hope this trend continues.

And the Spanish flu actually ended up stopping almost overnight, spontaneous mutations like that can naturally happen (though might be a bit optimistic right now)

Mutations that supersede the original virus occur when the original virus is pushed to the brink of survival... A mutation that can more readily survive than the original can then replace it.

In other words, significant mutations generally occur as a result of the original virus dying almost completely, but they aren’t the cause the original virus to die out. The different strains in Spanish Flu occurred after the previous strains had all but died out (over the summer months).

I'm interested in the antibody testing. From what i read you could have gad it and recovered without producing antibodies if it only activated the first, generic, layer of your immune response. I don't know what this would mean for future immunity, presumably you wouldn't have any, though immune systems are complicated things and I'm no doctor, but i suppose you'd also be unlikely to get seriously ill a second time, and since we are only testing serious cases, wouldn't ever be recorded? But then you would also have to be sufficiently non-infectious not to generate a spike in moee serious cases - but that sort of fits with the children transmission data, that they are less likely to pass it on too?

Everyone who has had a test seemed "pretty sure they had it" but, as far as I understand it, the statistics show only 10 or 20% of them actually did.

Indeed, there would have been thousands upon thousands of cases of flu over the winter... Most were probably just that.

Would be interesting to see a large amount of antibody testing in London

I wonder if the sunshine might be contributing to slower transmission too - after all, UV light is used to sterilise (not in a Trumpian way through the veins, just to sterilise surfaces).

It does with flu so I’m hopeful.

Times asking today What kind of rule breaker are you?
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/300fca10-9aaa-11ea-aaba-2417e5fa83dd

Would be interesting to see a large amount of antibody testing in London

Agreed. Surely one must be being done. They’ve done NYC a few times weeks ago.

A google suggests there is such a thing as immunological memory involving T cells rather than antibodies, but i don't suppose we can test for it. Perhaps it's destined to remain a mystery.

London peaked early?

www.google.com/search?q=wikipedia+immunological+memory&oq=wik&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j69i57j69i60l3.1575j0j4&client=ms-android-motorola&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

I'm in London and I know quite a few work colleagues who believe they had it in March and early April. Classic symptoms etc. None of them were tested.

I'd love a test to find out if I had it in November.

30miles out of London here. I'm convinced dd had after after sking. Italy.

We all got coughs and my son ever up with chilblains. I'm desperate for anti bodie testing.

What % of Londoners live alone?

Agree with a PP that many people may have a certain level of immunity even if they do not appear to have any antibodies.

Didn't a psychic predict it will end as soon as it started?

On a serious note whilst people have been going out. Also I know people feel in certain areas and places people have been morons with it all. A massive chunk of the UK has been home. Nowhere is particularly open. Yes I know we've had more freedoms than Italy etc. But I wouldn't say it's hugely helped the difference in rules.

When you think of how few are using the tube. The fact London is normally heaving with tourists. The fact restaurants/bars/pubs/gyms/leisure centres/ days out for kids and many other places where people usually gather are shut. So whilst people may gather in a garden and ignore rules. They unlikely will have the virus and even though they are taking a silly risk it won't be spreading further.

I think people need to believe that it was never going to stay around as bad it was forever. Yes it could spoke again. But with people doing so little compared to normal you'd expect massive improvements.

Let's just hope things keep going in the right direction.

Psychic's are irrelevant.

London executed social distancing and lockdown effectively when they understood how bad it is.

I was remembering that psychic. Wasn't it some ancient soothsayer?!

London just got started earlier.

A few weeks ago all our patients had it, several staff had it. We were admitting patients with it. Lots of people ringing us up who blatantly had it.

Now, nothing.

I'd say the 24 cases is entirely believable.

longestlurkerever

Perhaps the immune response has to be reactivated to produce the antibodies being tested for.

In other words have "it" once, then be exposed again.