70 cases in French schools since reopening

[Hippywannabe]

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[BertNErnie]

@ListeningQuietly I agree keeping schools open for children is really important. I am all for more pupils coming in - starting with those who are disadvantaged. I believe they, along with vulnerable pupils, are the ones who will be really losing out. We can accommodate these pupils in my school quite easily and would be able to maintain safety as we have been already doing with key worker provision.

My issue is there is general incompetence going on. The government KNEW they wanted schools to reopen on June 1st so they should have pulled their fingers out sooner if they wanted to ensure this would happen. It's all being done so haphazardly. Guidance keep trickling out and changing every bloody 2 days as if they are writing it in response to the teachers thinking WFT is this as they read it and now there seem to be rumblings that testing, tracking and tracing might not be in place for June 1st. If this is indeed the case then I really don't know where we go from there.

[ListeningQuietly]

ov9
You wait for a vaccine then.
I'll stick to standard tried and tested infection control and getting on with my life.

BertNErnie
Cummings nihilistic finger prints are all over this.
Blocking local health providers from doing the test and trace (forcing it to go through incompetent private companies)
Ten years of Tory Austerity bleeding schools and the NHS and the care system dry
Selling off the PPE stocks
Rearranging PHE so that it made money for the rich bit could not do its job
a whole litany of failure
with a workshy lazy bastard as Prime Minister

[nellodee]

@TeacupDrama

1,400,000 out of a population of 65250000= 2.1%
70 out of 2573 positive tests = 2.7%

If everyone had the same chance of getting the virus, we would imagine that 2.1% of the positive tests would come from people in schools. That would be 54 positive tests. At 70, we have slightly more than that in reality, not less.

If my hypothesis was that school children had the same chance of catching the virus as anyone else, I certainly wouldn't reject that hypothesis on this evidence. If I did reject it, it would be to say that they were more likely to catch it, rather than less, but to be honest, I think it's probably within a reasonable confidence interval.

If my hypothesis was that school children are less likely to catch the virus than adults, I'd be questioning that right now.

Of course, being able to catch the virus doesn't mean being able to transmit it, but I always think there's an element of straw clutching in that argument. Fortunately, however many children become positive, the chances of them dying are vanishingly small, thank goodness. I don't think schools are a risk to children themselves. However, although 70 is a low number in absolute terms, I don't think it bodes particularly well for the assumption that children will be any less infectious than adults.

[TeacupDrama]

@nellodee while 70 out 2573 tests is 2.7%, this is a test of people with some symptoms it is not a random sample of either the whole population or of the 1.4 million children back in school ( the number of children in France is roughly 10 times that) so obviously the percentage andnumber you would get in a curated sample will be much higher than a random sample it is comparing apples with pears or more likely comparing apples with blue cheese
In France the test criteria are very much like here symptoms or key workers, there maybe some small random sampling projects but this was not one of them
so if the positive tests in a sample of people with symptoms is only a tiny bit (2.7 as opposed to 2.1) above what you would expect in a random sample the signs are very very postive

[Quartz2208]

what did he actually say though because it is very difficult to work out how many and who because all the media reports spring from one. As far as I can tell he said the majority were from outside schools and schools were shut as a precaution

[ravenmum]

He stumbled over his words. It's unclear whether he is talking about 70 cases of Covid or 70 cases of schools closing.