70 cases in French schools since reopening

[Hippywannabe]

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[ravenmum]

He stumbled over his words. It's unclear whether he is talking about 70 cases of Covid or 70 cases of schools closing.

[Quartz2208]

what did he actually say though because it is very difficult to work out how many and who because all the media reports spring from one. As far as I can tell he said the majority were from outside schools and schools were shut as a precaution

[TeacupDrama]

@nellodee while 70 out 2573 tests is 2.7%, this is a test of people with some symptoms it is not a random sample of either the whole population or of the 1.4 million children back in school ( the number of children in France is roughly 10 times that) so obviously the percentage andnumber you would get in a curated sample will be much higher than a random sample it is comparing apples with pears or more likely comparing apples with blue cheese
In France the test criteria are very much like here symptoms or key workers, there maybe some small random sampling projects but this was not one of them
so if the positive tests in a sample of people with symptoms is only a tiny bit (2.7 as opposed to 2.1) above what you would expect in a random sample the signs are very very postive

[nellodee]

@TeacupDrama

1,400,000 out of a population of 65250000= 2.1%
70 out of 2573 positive tests = 2.7%

If everyone had the same chance of getting the virus, we would imagine that 2.1% of the positive tests would come from people in schools. That would be 54 positive tests. At 70, we have slightly more than that in reality, not less.

If my hypothesis was that school children had the same chance of catching the virus as anyone else, I certainly wouldn't reject that hypothesis on this evidence. If I did reject it, it would be to say that they were more likely to catch it, rather than less, but to be honest, I think it's probably within a reasonable confidence interval.

If my hypothesis was that school children are less likely to catch the virus than adults, I'd be questioning that right now.

Of course, being able to catch the virus doesn't mean being able to transmit it, but I always think there's an element of straw clutching in that argument. Fortunately, however many children become positive, the chances of them dying are vanishingly small, thank goodness. I don't think schools are a risk to children themselves. However, although 70 is a low number in absolute terms, I don't think it bodes particularly well for the assumption that children will be any less infectious than adults.

[ListeningQuietly]

ov9
You wait for a vaccine then.
I'll stick to standard tried and tested infection control and getting on with my life.

BertNErnie
Cummings nihilistic finger prints are all over this.
Blocking local health providers from doing the test and trace (forcing it to go through incompetent private companies)
Ten years of Tory Austerity bleeding schools and the NHS and the care system dry
Selling off the PPE stocks
Rearranging PHE so that it made money for the rich bit could not do its job
a whole litany of failure
with a workshy lazy bastard as Prime Minister

[BertNErnie]

@ListeningQuietly I agree keeping schools open for children is really important. I am all for more pupils coming in - starting with those who are disadvantaged. I believe they, along with vulnerable pupils, are the ones who will be really losing out. We can accommodate these pupils in my school quite easily and would be able to maintain safety as we have been already doing with key worker provision.

My issue is there is general incompetence going on. The government KNEW they wanted schools to reopen on June 1st so they should have pulled their fingers out sooner if they wanted to ensure this would happen. It's all being done so haphazardly. Guidance keep trickling out and changing every bloody 2 days as if they are writing it in response to the teachers thinking WFT is this as they read it and now there seem to be rumblings that testing, tracking and tracing might not be in place for June 1st. If this is indeed the case then I really don't know where we go from there.

[0v9c99f9g9d939d9f9g9h8h]

Right. So you don't know what you're talking about.

Fine.

For the benefit of others reading, there has never been an effort like this to find a vaccine. It's unprecedented. It certainly didn't happen with other corona viruses and especially not the ones mentioned above (some of which were successfully dealt with by other means first so of course the quest for a vaccine didn't continue).

Listening Do some research.

[0v9c99f9g9d939d9f9g9h8h]

Locking yourself in a cupboard is an odd way to describe saving 30 000 people from a horrendous death and countless others from long term damage. I acknowledge the difficulties in the position but still.... It's an odd way to describe something that has saved so many lives. As if you can't see any up side to that or why it might be liberating for anyone at all... Odd.

[ListeningQuietly]

We haven't ever tried to get a vaccine in anything like this way before.
SARS
MERS
Human corona viruses
none successful yet ......

[0v9c99f9g9d939d9f9g9h8h]

You don't know there will be no vaccine. Or do you have inside knowledge? And is this your area of expertise? If not, you have no way of predicting what an unprecedented global push with limitless resources will do. We haven't ever tried to get a vaccine in anything like this way before. Scientists everywhere acknowledge this. How do you know there is no hope? Please tell me.

[ListeningQuietly]

The Countries that have tackled the spread well (Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong) have done so by acting early and thoroughly.
The countries that have tackled it badly (New Zealand) have just shut themseslves in a cupboard.
THe countries that did not tackle the spread in time now have to live with it
and was was pointed out to the MPs today
its all over the world now, its here to stay
we have to live with it
as we do the other coronaviruses

There will be no effective vaccine
There is just better infection control ( getting men to wash their hands after having a piss and before touching food would be nice )
and adequate resourcing of healthcare

[0v9c99f9g9d939d9f9g9h8h]

nih

What rubbish. You clearly haven't looked around you at how other countries have successfully tackled the spread. The measures taken must be adequate to tackle the spread, full stop. Unfortunately those measures have to be drastic or it makes no difference. Please stop thinking of yourself for one moment and consider the key workers and their families who will continue to die if adequate measures aren't taken.

[Nihiloxica]

Letting it spread more is not an option then.

Exactly. It's not an option, it's a given.

It will spread more and we can take measures to control it. And they must be proportional to the risks of further spread and balanced against the harms of the measures.

[Newgirls]

Meaningless?! It’s what the world is working with!

[ListeningQuietly]

R stats in uk are avail online and are 0.4 for London at moment. Highest rate is north east at .83
But they are based on so few accurate tests as to be utterly meaningless.

BertNErnie
IMHO every teacher and TA should be offered a weekly test so that they know if they have had it, have it or are at risk of it.
And that contact tracing should be vigorous if it comes into a school
but keeping the schools open is really important for many kids

[Newgirls]

R stats in uk are avail online and are 0.4 for London at moment. Highest rate is north east at .83

That suggests to me that wave is moving across country and If it is falling in busy London that is a positive

[toolatetooearly]

That's a really, really low number.

[BertNErnie]

@ListeningQuietly surely it's better for us to start testing though? My school will have a capacity of 50% running and some staff will be working from home or shielding.

There are also school who are not opening on June 1st around the country so whilst I completely agree this will be a difficult task, it's better than having nothing in place?

If you worked on the basis of 50% of the figures you quoted and also took into account that some schools will be opening later I think we could make a big dent in testing those going into schools.

[eeeyoresmiles]

Letting it spread more is not an option then.

[ListeningQuietly]

Giving up and just letting the virus spread is just not an option
Its already happened.

[eeeyoresmiles]

Giving up and just letting the virus spread is just not an option. So we're stuck with adjusting our behaviour, testing, tracking etc. Testing isn't perfect but should improve. Knowledge of how the virus works and the disease progress will improve. But those things will work. We can get rates low, and track where the disease is,and behave in ways that reduce transmission. We don't have to keep schools closed forever to do that, but neither is there anything special about June 1st in particular, or about the particular classes going back first.

It's fine to want your children to go back then, and it's fine not to want to. Neither is wrong.

The government, on the other hand, might be wrong in telling us it's fine on June 1st in particular, might be underestimating how risky it is from the point of view of restarting rapid transmission, might have picked classes based on childcare rather than public health... I don't know. I'm not convinced it's quite right, even if the basic idea of trying to get schools functioning for more pupils is good.

[ListeningQuietly]

I don't understand why we just don't test all teachers and children from the chosen year groups before 1st June. If we have the capacity to carry out over 100,000, surely we could do this before then?
Today is May 18th
so there are 13 days left in the month
100,000 x 13 = 1,300,000

there are 500,000 pupils in EVERY year group (yr R to Yr 12 = 13 year groups)
there are over 500,000 teachers in the UK
and the TAs and admin staff and cooks

so around 10,000,000 people to be vaccinated
ie around 8 times more than we are currently managing

and that assumes stopping testing all NHS and care home staff

[BertNErnie]

I don't understand why we just don't test all teachers and children from the chosen year groups before 1st June. If we have the capacity to carry out over 100,000, surely we could do this before then?

If I have it then I self isolate and the same goes for any pupils and therefore there is less chance of it spreading?

[Bluntness100]

70 out of 1.4 million kids. That’s a very low stat. Which is what was to be expected.

Not Surprised some folks are still running around with their pants on their head panicking, even though they have the option to keep their kids home.

I just don’t get why they want every one else to.

[LemonyCupcake]

v low !