Five months in. Why are highest death tolls only in the west?

[Legoandloldolls]

Any thoughts?

No mass problems anywhere else. Even in countries that healthcare is only great if you are have private cover.

If it's really because we arent contact tracing them that still doesn't fully explain it. Not every country can afford to contact trace.

No out brakes anywhere else in China

Africa doesnt often have the kinds of mass gatherings that we do here regularly"

Which Africa? South Africa where tens of thousands gather for football or horse races? Malawi where a gathering of 5,000 to protest politics have become the norm in cities and where it's not usual for weekend weddings to have a gathering of 1000 each wedding? Egypt where gatherings of a few hundred will be broken up to avoid "unrest"?

We actually do have. Perhaps not thousands as in Cheltenham festival but weekly weddings, dances, funerals etc

Why aren't we hard hit as Europe? No one knows. The epidemic is not over yet so may be the worst is yet to come for us. May be genetics and environmental factors operating differently there than here, less global travel, may be the BCG vaccine as others thought (not proven), and all the other factors others have said.

As to isolated villages in Africa. There aren't many left that isolated "thanks" to development "aid" and changing demographics.
And no it's not just that there is poor recording and reporting (yes there is but...) If there were hundreds or thousands dying we would have known by now. Citizen journalism is very alive in many African countries, relatives etc. We don't exactly live in bubbles entirely dependent on weak governments. Asia? Quite a few have experience with SArs and as much as some in developed countries find it hard to accept, have done an excellent job at providing quarantine, tracing, testing, PPE. It's an interesting question though because most countries at least in Africa are not in proper lockdown or isolating because it's impossible. For now, we are just grateful that for once we are not the ones dying in numbers. After all, preventable diseases kill more of us each year than those dead from covid globally so far.
We can only wait and see in 2021 after bona fide studies and when it's all under control

I think it just turns out that we in the UK are particularly vulnerable to Covid 19 for a number of reasons. There will need to be a fuller enquiry into why when we get to the other side I guess.

"Dont shoot me either but the west is you know..... just where the west is on the planet? Like Asia is in Asia?"

"Western" nations are spread all over the planet- Europe, North America, Australia/New Zealand etc. I've never heard "West" refer to some of the poorer countries of Europe, for example. I don't think it's a geographical term. I associate it more with "White and rich" countries.

@CrimeAndMumishment "Fuck, why can't people just admit the UK and most of the west dropped the ball?"

Because they are brainwashed sheep who want to believe that our response has been "exemplary" and every one else is lying

@UrsulaPandress I agree. The Chinese numbers look exceptionally dodgy.
Unfortunately I fear the virus is yet to get going in many countries. The picture might look very different in a year’s time. I really hope I’m wrong!

6 deaths in the entire of Taiwan! Sorry but you can't just say "they got lucky" or "they're not fat". The government dealt with it. We could have had similar figures if we had dealt with it too.

"A Taiwanese man has been fined more than £28,000 after police found him dancing in a nightclub while he was meant to be self-quarantining at home."

"Officers equipped with mobile phone scanning technology were sweeping through clubs and bars in Taipei on Sunday when they discovered the 35-year-old, named only as Huang."

"Using their 'M-Police' cloud-based app the officers were able to instantly check Huang's status. He had recently returned from Cambodia and was still under a mandatory 14 day quarantine period."

"He was arrested in Taipei's Omni Nightclub and moved immediately to a quarantine facility run by the island's centralised epidemic control centre, which was activated even before coronavirus epicentre Wuhan was put on lockdown."

I think it is an interesting question OP and one which is not solely linked to under reporting or a delay in contagion.

There is a good discussion about this in the NY Times www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/world/asia/coronavirus-spread-where-why.html
Luck also appears to play a part in outcomes

'Countries with the same culture and climate could have vastly different outcomes if one infected person attends a crowded social occasion, turning it into what researchers call a super-spreader event'

Thailand is an interesting example of a 'lucky' outcome
'Thailand reported the first confirmed case of coronavirus outside of China in mid-January, from a traveler from Wuhan, the Chinese city where the pandemic is thought to have begun. In those critical weeks, Thailand continued to welcome an influx of Chinese visitors. For some reason, these tourists did not set off exponential local transmission'

I spent 10 years living in Africa and still have lots of friends there.

Yes there are lots of mass gatherings - they have football matches, weddings, funerals, concerts etc. just like we do so this won't be the reason. In fact many weddings can be 500 guests minimum.

More likely reasons are that they are behind on the epidemic curve due to less international travel so started at a later date. As others have said - populations are skewed very young and, due to limited healthcare options, you will have far less of the "shielded" type people than we have in the UK.

Another fact that might surprise those who think Africa is a dirty backwater is the hand washing. I lived in Nairobi and it's completely normal to wash your hands immediately before eating. There are often sinks in the restaurant (i.e. by the tables) for people to do this. I think in many African cities people are a lot more aware of germs and disease than we are in the West.

But it's important to remember that Africa is not a homogeneous place. Rwanda is very jacked up and has a very "compliant" population (/it's a dictatorship) who are currently under strict social distancing rules. Kenya on the other hand is not known for good governance and friends of mine in Nairobi are starting to get a bit worried about what might happen.

Ever been to the developing world OP? If you have you wouldn't be asking your question

Actually now I think about it, in the 10 years I lived in Africa I only caught a cold once. And yet as soon as I'd come back to the UK I'd get ill. I don't know why that is but these kind of viruses just don't seem anywhere near as common in African countries. Maybe the heat is a factor? I'd be interested to know.

There was an interesting article in the Guardian about why eastern Europe had fared better than western Europe. Basically, it was saying that because they knew their health service couldn't cope with much pressure, on average they locked down earlier and stayed locked down. Whereas cocuntries like the UK and Sweden felt they could "play the system" a bit, and avoided lockdown until they were getting up to capacity.

*cocuntries - now there's a typo!

Main reason:

COVID predominately hits the very elderly

• of whom developing countries have far fewer as a % of population

Also, younger people with serious underlying health conditions can live several decades in the West,
but far fewer survive in a developing country to join the population "vulnerable" to COVID

Africa was particularly hard hit by AIDS and has an even lower median age than before

If the West had similar population demographics, then we'd also have v low deaths from COVID
_
Median ages of population:_

17 Uganda
18 Nigeria
22 Ghana
25 Egypt
28 S Africa
28 India

47 Italy
46 Germany
45 Spain
42 France
41 Sweden
40 UK
38 Ireland

38 NZ
38 Australia

32 Turkey
38 China

32 Argentina
33 Brazil

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

Because if you live with ebola / SARS / other assorted nasties in your back yard you develop shit hit pandemic response teams pronto.

Part of the reason is down to the fact that a lot of countries on the east, japan, China, Korea etcetv are all used to doing what they are told by government. Track and trace is far more invasive than here, it’s thought the the uk public wouldn’t stand for the lack of privacy and requirement for the Government to know exactly where they are. Look at what’s happening now with lockdown, people starting to push boundaries etc. It doesn’t happen so much in the east

Thanks for the link @weepingwillow22 - interesting article.

It seems like obesity might be the main factor.
ff No it isnt'

Australia and NZ both have higher levels of obesity than the UK and they are doing much better.

Obesity is a factor but is not even the main one. the main one is how early a country reacted and their ability to keep the numbers small so that track and trace and isolate can work while we wait for a treatment or a vaccine

obesity.procon.org/global-obesity-levels/

NZ obesity levels - 30.8%
Australia obesity levels - 29%
UK obeseity levels - 27.8%

South Africa obesity levels - 28.8% and we have just heard that their death rate is very low. That is because they have a young population

YY @CrimeAndMumishment Thats what the "blame the fatties" agenda is all about.

A tried and tested tactic which they know will work because of the hatred and contempt for overweight/obese people.

Track and trace is far more invasive than here, it’s thought the the uk public wouldn’t stand for the lack of privacy and requirement for the Government to know exactly where they are

Might have something to do with their treatment of ill/disabled people.

There was reference to research on sky news today about the virus mutating and different stains affecting different areas. If the research is accurate (it has not been peer reviewed) a more deadly strain appears to be present in europe and the us than in asia news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-scientists-identify-more-contagious-mutant-coronavirus-strain-sweeping-europe-and-us-11983554

VERY damning report

www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/health-coronavirus-britain-elderly/

But yeah lets blame the fatties.

Ah the usual ‘why aren’t poor countries getting hit harder’. Thinly shielded racism.

Because they are more hygienic, younger and are a healthier weight than people in the west.

There’s the answer.

But yeah lets blame the fatties
It's already been established that there is a link between obesity and a poor outcome. No point denying it.
Along with low levels of vitamin D. Which would give any country in the Southern hemisphere an advantage at this time of year. Australia and New Zealand acted very quickly though, that can't be denied either. Hopefully it's enough to see them through their winter.
Personally I think it would be more useful to compare the UK to Sweden.