Boris’ announcement on Sunday UK

[Bumpandus]

So it’s recently been announced that Boris will be on on Sunday to let us know what the next phase is etc..

What do people think realistically he is gonna allow?

Opinions!! Go...

But we don't know if those new cases are mild @cathyandclare, because mild cases can develop into severe cases which need hospitals and sometimes ICU. And it can take 3 weeks from being ok, to being very poorly, to being in hospital and then ICU.
They can't assume all those new cases are mild. They won't know for another 3 weeks how they are going to pan out. Hence the concern.

Look at it this way; if the amount of testing increases, and the rate of infection goes down, the R number goes down. If the amount of testing goes up, and the rate of infection goes up too - the R number is still a problem. They can't release measures until they are certain that the R number is where they want it to be, not for a day, but for a sustained period of time. The more people go out, the longer it will take.

But the numbers of new cases have been very steady for a while now, despite increased testing- but the ITUs and GP hubs are very quiet ( I'm a medic).

I agree we can't be sure, but compared with the days when we only tested hospital admissions ( so, by definition more severe) there are likely to be more people with less severe symptoms detected. Today it was around 50/50 pillar 2 tests and NHS tests positive. so around 2k each

I think the fact it’s Sunday is a good clue

So, legally it has to be reviewed on Thursday, but they won’t relax before a bank holiday weekend, so I think Sunday we will announce easing from the following week.

People recommended to wear face coverings when out
Non essential shops to open With social distancing measures in place
Working from home where possible still encouraged
Restaurants, bars, coffee shops etc to be open take away only
Announcing phased return of schools from June
Hairdressers salons etc stil, closed (unfortunately)

I should say relatively not very quiet

@cathyandclare
That's interesting. Do you think the virus is lessening in it's intensity? Is that possible, that it diminishes the longer it is around? (Sorry, I don't have the medical terminology).

They also mentioned getting the results of the community survey tests soon. Will be very interesting to see what the rate of infection was.

Sophieb - I would assume it's because in the early days only those actually bad enough to be admitted to hospital or members of the royal family could get a test so the majority of those tested had bad symptoms, whereas now they are extending the testing they are going to get a much truer representation of how many people are infected versus how many need hospitalisation and ultimately to the mortality rate.

I reckon it will be extended until end of May purely to solidify the drop in deaths/cases but also to outline what is expected from June 01 and to give businesses a chance to make the changes needed such as distancing measures, protective screening etc as well as to allow testing and roll out of the app.

If they can explain that the finishing line is in sight, we just need a few more weeks to implement the correct solutions then I think people will go for it. However if they just say “it’s extended. Tough”, that’s when there will be complaints.

I like the way Ireland have the 5 point roadmap. People know what they are working towards

Yes, - in the early days only those actually bad enough to be admitted to hospital were tested. Now they're screening essential workers and family members/people picked up on apps/ a selection of people tested for research so they're much more likely to identify people with mild/no symptoms.

@rookiemere, thank you, that makes perfect sense. I think I had it early March, but obviously wasn't tested, as thankfully wasn't admitted to hospital, and it was too early for the testing available now, which I could now have as I work in education. Thanks for clarifying.

Thank you @cathyandclare

"Possibly a move from the yellow and black "real dangerous shit" colourscheme to something more in the "mild peril" territory of mustard and teal perhaps?"
:o

The best way to look at how the infection rate is progressing is to look at the hospital admissions and how far they are dropping. With more hospital capacity and testing capacity are daily case numbers aren't easily comparable to those a few weeks ago. Even that is difficult to look at as with more capacity and changes in ambulance advice (at points they refused to attend people that they now will) less severe patients may be being admitted.

I do wonder how accurate their R values are, I don't think the sentinal type study (25k in random places tested to see if they are infected) has come in yet and it takes a while to use the hospital and death figures accurately.

Lockdown will get extended on Thursday otherwise more will have been said.

I was looking forward to find more information about what we are working towards and was thinking it was going to be Thursday, but now its being pushed back until Sunday. That will be 7 weeks in lockdown by then.

Granted it's been much less of a lockdown than other countries (I suspect that's due to not having enough police to enforce anything other), but I have nothing else to look forward to now so looking forward to the end or things changing.

Now I have to wait another 3 days to find out what this may be. We all have our own ideas and other people are no doubt doing the same as me and trying to read between the lines and pick up any hints.

I'm struggling now without the end being in sight. Once we have the information on Sunday we will have a better idea of the end and what it will look like (obvs wont be back to the way things were for a long long time)

I'm just hoping that it is clear or at least there is some direction to where we can find the information (such as a link on the government website) and not just waffle.

Wonder how many viewers it will get.

I think we're all starting to struggle without a light at the end of the tunnel.
I think Sturgeon has been quite clever with her carrot and stick approach. She implied today that she will tell people what the loosened measures will be this week. Before that she hinted strongly that lockdown will be extended. Then said she hopes to implement the new measures after the extended lockdown. So I read that as her saying if you stick this for another three weeks, you'll get the restrictions lifted, and if you don't, you won't. She knows it'll be hard, so she's given an incentive. I think Boris will do the same - I think this has all been agreed, and she has pre-empted it, by alluding to it today.

Why can't parks at least be opened again, national trust places?.
How much mixing can go on in these places, outdoors when others are in tightly crowed tube carriages? Having easier access to outdoors will make any more number of weeks not only bearable but also easier to socially avoid! With more space!

I was hoping the National Trust might re-open, DH is hoping he is going to be able to go fishing which is quite a solitary pastime, I'm also hoping for this as he is getting under my feet a bit and pacing around a lot

If parks and national trusts are opened people will flock there in huge numbers, have picnics and ignore social distancing. The tubes are still busy as the services have been cut but people still have to use them to get to work.

National Trust places were shut because people took the piss, mingled in large family groups and didn't observe social distancing. It was partly their fault for making entry free.
NT open spaces would have made ds's life so much more bearable as that is where he is able to be calm.
I hope they will open them up to local people even if travel restrictions remain in force. They could always limit entrance hours to early and late in the day or place restrictions on numbers to avoid crowded car parks.

Yes NT making everywhere free was a really dumb move. Why cant people use common sense - if you get somewhere and its chocka then go somewhere else!
The trouble with outdoor spaces is toilet facilities. I would happily drive to a beach now but with nowhere to have a wee it wouldnt be worth it.

When talking about the £30bn cost of furlough Chancellor Rishi Sunak said that level of expenditure was "not sustainable".

"I am working as we speak to figure out the most effective way to wind down the scheme and ease people back into work in a measured way," he said.

With that in mind there may be information for business owners about the plan to get those furloughed back to work before the scheme ends.

Oddboots I was just going to post about Rishi Sunak wanting to wind the furlough scheme down. It sounds to me that they want people back to work not to continue further lockdown

even if it is extended this thursday for 3 weeks it won't be extended again on 28th May in full,
personally I think there will be some easing this week with an outline of further lifting from 28th
schools will start back Monday 1st June albeit in a limited shift pattern sort of way
most shops will reopen by June
working from home for office based staff will continue for some time to allow those that can't work from home to use public transport
work places will be encouraged to stagger start finish times so 8-4, 9-5 and 10-6 rather than everyone 9-5
apparently the state is supporting 50% of population financially when you account for public sector, pensioners and furloughed , that is 1 taxpayer supporting themselves plus one other person which is clearly unsustainable

If it's true what's been said about that they want the furloughed scheme being phased down then it's likely they will want people back to work soon .
I suspect the phased return will be the end of this month / beginning of June so that by end of June most are back at work it makes sense .
I think it will be relaxed from next week but still in lockdown as such .
I'm totally fed up now think a lot are , I know some are anxious about lockdown ending but even so you must know this can't go on forever.