A vaccine is very likely to happen

[FreierFall]

I've worked in big Pharma for years. I am 99% sure an effective vaccine will be produced this year. It's gonna happen, have faith in scientists. They will be working their butt off....

"Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla told The Wall Street Journal the company's COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for emergency distribution by the fall. The company could further be ready for a broader rollout by the end of the year, he added"

Thanks op, a wee bit of hope on a rainy Wednesday

Bet the British will be lay in line with the incompetence of our government. Even if we discover it I wouldn’t be confident of it being available in the UK first.

Last

Yep, scientists in several teams around the world are working on a vaccine
They sound upbeat and I'm confident that one or more teams will develop a vaccine soon
The first human trials are ongoing in several countries

I'd have the vaccine as soon as available
I'm a scientist;
a tinfoil hat to protect me from Bill Gates / Rothchilds / Big Pharma's poisonous lizards would clash with my grey hair

I'm 63 and lockdown happened 6 weeks after I retired
I want to get out again and enjoy my retirement as planned

I love this thread it really gives me hope. I’m struggling with anxiety so much and I’m petrified of contracting the virus. I hope for everyone’s sake that we all get a vaccine very soon. Considering the amount of people working on one aswell as treatments it is looking highly likely.

I saw the Marr interview with Prof Gilbert from Oxford last week (I think?), and she said that she was pretty confident theirs would work and also pretty confident that quite a few of the other vaccines currently in development would also work, which will be good for getting lots of vaccine manufactured as different ones would require different processes.

Thank you for this op, I really hope you are right 🤞🏼

I keep rereading the articles about these vaccines - it’s really helping me keep a tiny bit positive.

I remember reading somewhere for the first time drugs companies are working together to get a vaccine out.
GSK and Pfizer are big makers of vaccines.

Give me one piece of evidence that a vaccine is likely to happen.
Just one.

We don't know that the S protein that most candidates in development are focused on is the right part of the antigen to promote antibody generation

We don't know if antibodies confer immunity, or if they do, how strong it is or how long it lasts.

We won't know until it's been tested in big populations and challenged with natural reinfection, which requires big and long duration studies, with no known surrogate biomarker.

It's not for want of trying that nobody has developed a Coronavirus vaccine to date. Not against SARS or MERS or the other 2 Coronaviruses that kill a whole bunch of old people every year (but nobody has ever really worried about too much until now). Nor have they managed a decent RSV vaccine for that matter, despite that one actually killing babies (which people care about more). Vaccines are not easy. If they were, we'd have more of them.

This thread is shockingly ignorant. Just like most of our politicians. Go research it.

I really hope we do find a vaccine. But honestly, best case? Probably 5-6 years away, minimum.

Peony why are Oxford and Imperial and many others suggesting other timescales?

This thread is shockingly ignorant. Just like most of our politicians. Go research it.

Do share with us your qualifications in vaccine development? Because your confident declaration that 'nobody has developed a Coronavirus vaccine to date' has missed an awful lot of vaccines, being delivered to animals around you for quite some time now. Go research it.

@peonypower
Why would these world renowned scientists put their reputations on the line to say there could be a vaccine within months if there was no chance whatsoever? Presumably they know a bit about how it works?!
No one has said 100% there will be a vaccine by the end of the year but experts are saying it looks hopeful and promising and I will take that for now and hope for the best.

@peonypower why are you so angry?

Quite a lot of those actually developing the vaccines think you’re wrong. You might be right, no one knows for certain, including you.

I’m really hopeful of a vaccine by the end of the year. If there isn’t one there isn’t one and we’ll deal with it.

I'll take all the glimmers of hope I can!

They are having some success in trials with a drug called remedesivir. It's not super-effective if you are critically ill, but in mild to moderate cases it's showing promise.

And I will definitely be getting the vaccine when it's ready...

Ok HUMAN vaccine. If you think a chicken vaccine will help you, then good luck!
I'm angry because smart scientists are pushing utter cobblers to get funding, filling a gullible public with false hope.
Of course we should try...but even most regular established vaccines take MONTHS to manufacture. Just MANUFACTURE.
The phase 3 studies are on average 3.5 years.
What happens when you rush them? Remember polio? They rushed that at first, launched a badly tested vaccine on the market and thousands of children were paralysed.

Would you vaccinate your children with an under tested vaccine? I believe in vaccination - I've had all mine as have my children, but I'll be damned if I'd let my kids be a guinea pig for a vaccine for a disease that is very unlikely to harm them just to benefit the elderly and a few unlucky younger souls.

And the two medics in my family have said they won't be having it either.

Why does them being medics make their view any more likely to be correct? My flat mates father was a GP and believed black people were less intelligent because their brains were smaller and incapable of development. I know of medical people who don’t believe in vaccines at all. Then there is Dr Birx...

“Medics” don’t have some magical medical insight. Their reasoning can be flawed too.

I'll take the vaccine as soon as it's available, but tbh I'd be happy with an effective treatment to be going on with...

Well it’s a different risk assessment depending on your susceptibility to the disease isn’t it? If you are elderly or at significant risk you may decide the benefits outweigh the risks. If you are young and low risk you might choose against it or choose to delay it.

I tried to sign up for the trial but I’m still breastfeeding DS so wasn’t able to. I will have the vaccine as soon as I reasonably can. If the NHS recommend it for the DC they will have it too.

The Oxford group have already developed potential vaccine for MERS using the same technology and that had already been funded and is undergoing clinical trials in the middle east.

I think we have to recognise that there are almost unlimited resources being thrown at this, the old restraints on what could be achieved don’t apply. They are starting to produce the vaccine now just in case it works. That would just not be a commercially viable strategy under normal circumstances, now it is.

Necessity is the mother of invention. I’m not sure the “normal” constraints of funding and commerciality supply here.

Ok HUMAN vaccine. If you think a chicken vaccine will help you, then good luck!

The significant bit is that it's a coronavirus vaccine, one of the things you said nobody had ever been able to create. There are in fact quite a few of them. You perhaps are not as expertly informed on this as you believe yourself to be?

Nothing wrong with being an armchair vaccine expert, most of us are by now and me included, but it doesn't in fact make you massively better qualified to pronounce on how possible it is to develop a vaccine for Covid compared to, say, a team of professionals who've been working on a MERS vaccine.

In case anyone is taking the antivaxxer that's busy spreading misinformation seriously: yes, all vaccines will in extremely rare cases cause the disease they are supposed to prevent, including polio. Now look at the stats (from wiki):
] Oral polio vaccines cause about three cases of vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis per million doses given.[2] This compares with 5,000 cases per million who are paralysed following a polio infection.[7

As usual someone spouting half truths. The reason people don't trust vaccines is because they've never encountered the horror of the original disease.

The polio vaccine was introduced in 1955. I feel pretty certain that vaccine development has progressed a bit since then.

I agree that there will be a vaccine soon. The smartest people in the world are working on it.

I really hope we develop it in Scotland another thing we can say we invented 😂

They rushed that at first, launched a badly tested vaccine on the market and thousands of children were paralysed.

The issues in 1955 had nothing to do with rushing a vaccine out. The polio vaccine began development in 1948. It was years before they introduced it as a mass vaccine after very wide testing. It was a problem with one manufacturer, not with the vaccine.

Well of course we would all like to focus on the optimistic. But there has never been a vaccine tested, proven and delivered in such a timeline. But its good to have hope.

But if you research the expert virology community the estimates of success are very wide - from this year, through to a year or 18 months to never. And be aware that CEO's of drug companies have share prices to keep up and optimism serves their financial prospects as a company.

I am personally a very optimistic person. In the case of Covid I choose to accept a pessimistic outlook and then to hope for the best. I know I can endure the worst prognosis anything better will be a blessed joy.