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A vaccine is very likely to happen

285 replies

FreierFall · 29/04/2020 13:57

I've worked in big Pharma for years. I am 99% sure an effective vaccine will be produced this year. It's gonna happen, have faith in scientists. They will be working their butt off....

"Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla told The Wall Street Journal the company's COVID-19 vaccine could be ready for emergency distribution by the fall. The company could further be ready for a broader rollout by the end of the year, he added"

OP posts:
speakout · 29/04/2020 22:37

I've worked in big Pharma for years

Not inspiring I'm afraid.

Even if an effective vaccine was found in the next few months it would take years to have safe delivery to the whole human population.

Don't hold your breath.

Sunshinegirl82 · 29/04/2020 22:40

I do understand it hasn’t happened this quickly before (although they can produce a flu vaccine in 4 months from start to finish, there was already a MERS vaccine in existence so they weren’t starting from scratch) but this situation is unprecedented.

They will be able to do things more quickly because the resources are unlimited. The fact that the epidemic is ongoing will make the trials quicker because there is plenty of the virus in the community still for the vaccine to come up against.

The usual constraints that might slow a promising vaccine down just don’t exist here so I’m not sure we can compare it to the way things are normally done.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 29/04/2020 22:42

This thread has cheered me up!

happinessischocolate · 29/04/2020 22:45

A vaccine would be great but a test to see if we've already had it and are already immune would be bloody great too

DaisylovesDonald · 29/04/2020 22:47

@happinessischocolate
Progress in anti body tests too, although they make the point that they still don’t know what level of immunity this might confer, but again it’s a start!
www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-antibody-test-approval-news-europe-uk-accuracy-abbot-a9490026.html

Swingingsally · 29/04/2020 22:49

I'm hopeful but why does it take so long to produce vaccine? What takes the time?

How does money help.
Eg you have sample of covid in a lab.. Then what?

Sunshinegirl82 · 29/04/2020 22:55

There is some info on how the Oxford team have developed their vaccine here. This is not the only method, there are several.

www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-04-23-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-begins-human-trial-stage

Huncamuncaa · 29/04/2020 23:01

I've thought from the beginning it is likely to be here sooner than anticipated.

Mankind is capable if amazing things, but never more so than when money or power is involved. So with every country's economy crashing, I predict science is going to make bigger advancements in this area than ever before.

I am also an optimist Smile

MorrisZapp · 29/04/2020 23:13

What is it about vaccines that is hard to manufacture at scale? I don't see why with money, skill and resources anything can't be manufactured in the quantity required but I don't really know what the tricky ingredients would be or how they are sourced.

Vandelion · 29/04/2020 23:23

Thank you for the optimism OP. This has made for an encouraging read.

I would have the vaccine should it be offered to me. I'm a recent sepsis survivor with badly compromised immune system.

I'm bored to tears of the people (not on mumsnet) saying it's all a big conspiracy to vaccinate everybody and microchip us and all that bollocks.

They'll be pleased to know they'll be at the back of the queue when it comes out then, in the event that it is offered to the elderly and unwell first.

ErrolTheDragon · 29/04/2020 23:36

What is it about vaccines that is hard to manufacture at scale?

I know bugger all about it (and I'm a PhD chemist)... a very quick google found a paper which lists some of the challenges for different types of vaccine which might give you a flavour of the complexities.

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3164579/

JaneJeffer · 29/04/2020 23:57

There is work being done on finding other treatments too www.donegaldaily.com/2020/04/24/could-donegal-scientists-wonder-drug-hold-the-key-to-treating-coronavirus/

tobee · 30/04/2020 03:08

I believe the Oxford trial is already making their vaccine at scale ready to be rolled out because they've received the funding up front.

Kokeshi123 · 30/04/2020 03:26

Ok HUMAN vaccine. If you think a chicken vaccine will help you, then good luck!

We are not proposing that people take animal vaccines, for goodness' sake. We are saying that it is perfectly possible to develop coronavirus vaccines!

They have developed a bloody MERS vaccine. It wasn't worthwhile to develop a SARS vaccine because the pandemic petered out in time
You seem emotionally invested in the idea of endless lockdown or something.

DroppedBoxxedRuth · 30/04/2020 03:32

Thanks OP, I also think we'll have a vaccine soon.

But I just commented to dh that's it's May on Friday...time is meaningless at the moment!

Even if it's September, in normal days that wouldn't seem to far off but lockdown makes days feel like weeks and months feel impossible.

Starstruck2020 · 30/04/2020 04:17

I am doubtful, if vaccines were that easy to create why do we not have them for HIV hep C Ebola dengue etc.?

ChaBishkoot · 30/04/2020 04:22

Ahem. Can’t say much for obvious reasons but there should be a vaccine. Why does producing it take time? You need to make several billion doses of a stable vaccine that can be labelled, transported, to all corners of the world including places where say refrigeration may be an issue, and for the vaccine to be stable.

I think realistically you are looking at a vaccine like the flu that gives us maybe 50-60% protection.
The reason there is no RSV vaccine is not for want of trying but because there isn’t a great deal of money/push for it. There is the Synagis suit given to vulnerable kids. And the reality is that RSV is mild for most of the population (milder than COVID). And for transparency my child had RSV and was hospitalised for it and came close to being ventilated (he has a complex medical history).

Remember also that all clinical trials have been halted for obvious reasons and only COVID trials are happening. So there is a huge push not just from pharma but philanthropists and governments. There are currently 78 vaccines being tested and at least 5-6 stand a really good chance.
And remember we will most likely need more than one vaccine and one manufacturer to supply the world.

ChaBishkoot · 30/04/2020 04:22

*shot not suit

ChaBishkoot · 30/04/2020 04:23

Erm. We do have an Ebola vaccine.
It was given to HCPs in the UK as part of a clinical trial.
We also have a dengue vaccine.

HIV is a different beast. But we have now made enough antiretroviral progress for HIV to be managed as a chronic condition.

ChaBishkoot · 30/04/2020 04:26

What baffles me is why people say stuff that a quick Google search will show is not true...

Casino218 · 30/04/2020 04:29

It's not the scientists and medics that I distrust to come up with a vaccine. It is this governments ability to organise the distribution of that vaccine quickly. They are shambolic.

Ponoka7 · 30/04/2020 06:00

@peonypower
@TantieTowie,

On Panorama 'can science beat the virus', one of the Virologist starts by explaining why they haven't got a vaccine for HIV and what the difference is with this virus.
Watch the science stuff and a lot of the points on this thread is answered, including why they never carried on with a vaccine for Sars etc. The science is making progress everyday. We now understand why men are more likely to have severe symptoms and children under 10 don't, nor do they transmit it, at least not in a dangerous dose. Which is why primary schools have gone back and countries are allowing grandchildren to visit their shielding GPs again.

The ingredients used are all well tested, one is used in the fight against Elboa. It's the licensing side and the waiting to set up a manufacturing base that normally takes the time to release a new drug. That's what is different, as well as the global response. It's in governments financial interests to have this out in the population, especially in the third world were we rely on adults doing labour intensive work. In those countries tjey need adults to raise the children and that is usually helped by grandparents. In some countries it would be disastrous for the age of death to drop to 50+.

I will be getting the vaccine. Hopefully their will then be enough herd immunity to protect those who can't get the vaccine or for those that the initial vaccines won't work well for, the over 65's being one. But that's the case with the flu vaccine.

Alongside the Oxford vaccine team is the infectious diseases treatment team. One professor is confident that there will be effective treatments by the end of next month. It's a triple approach of anti-viral, anti-inflammatories and immune response support.

Science can beat this, but i hope we don't forget the cause and we prevent the next virus coming along by cleaning up the eating of wildlife etc.

Blackbear19 · 30/04/2020 06:34

I really hope we develop it in Scotlandanother thing we can say we invented

That made me smile, would just be the icing on the cake, up there with Mr Baird, Mr Bell and Mr Fleming. Somehow I think this will be too big to be a 'Mr' rather than a big corporation.

squishee · 30/04/2020 06:36

Is it not likely that China is ahead of the rest of the world in terms of vaccine development?

Derbygerbil · 30/04/2020 07:04

I am particularly concerned that it might be developed in the US with Trump's insanity reigning.

Luckily the scientific community outside of the USA is massive and highly advanced.