Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 7

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Welcome to thread 7 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Yes, BigChoc I think it must be the total deaths to date not the weekly deaths that the line is showing. Just a strange way to show it. I prefer the graphs that shade the area under the line, makes it obvious.

There are about 15 million people in the Uk classed as more vulnerable to COVID due to age or underlying health condition
(those eligible for flu vaccination minus the children)

So over 20% of the population

People with the conditions in the above tables like diabetes, high BP etc would normally expect to live for decades
Those are not normally terminal illnesses

The key factor is age - but risk increases significantly after 50, e.g. people like Boris

As Shoots posted, lockdown is mostly intended to save those in the 40-65 age group that either have a health condition, or have none but are just unlucky,
plus those aged 65-75, who on average have several years of retirement to enjoy

Care homes see rise in deaths not linked to coronavirus as hospitals refuse to take ill residents

UK's biggest provider says deaths among residents at three times last year's rate, but only half of additional deaths linked to virus

———
Care homes have seen a rise in deaths that have nothing to do with coronavirus as hospitals fail to take in residents as patients.

HC One, the UK's biggest care home provider, said the death rate among its 17,500 residents was around three times last year's, but only half those additional deaths were directly linked to Covid-19.

Sir David Behan, the chairman and a former chief executive of the Care Quality Commission (CQC), said it had lost an average of 20 residents per day in April last year but that, over the two weeks to April 24 this year, that number had risen to "between 60 and 70 a day".

He said: "About one third of those deaths, in our assessment, are Covid-19 deaths – so there are other deaths in there.

"We've got an elevated rate of deaths, and in part this is due to the fact that our transfers of people from care homes into hospitals is down from what it has been in previous years."

The revelation comes as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) prepares to shed new light on the deaths in care homes on Tuesday by incorporating more information about care home deaths, collected by the CQC, into its data.

The findings from HC One suggest the total number of "additional" deaths in care homes over the coronavirus pandemic could ultimately stretch into the tens of thousands.

Around 2,100 people in UK care homes died per week in April – equivalent to 400 per day – according to ONS figures showing the average number of deaths by location from 2015 to 2019.

If HC One's experience with non-Covid 19 deaths is typical of the UK's, more than 4,200 care home residents may have died of unrelated illnesses in the two weeks to April 24 alone.

Eleven days ago, Care England, the country's largest representative body for care homes, estimated that the number of care home residents who had died of suspected coronavirus may have reached 7,500.

Sir David said care home residents without coronavirus who might ordinarily have died in hospital were dying in care homes instead.
Professor Martin Green, Care England's chief executive, said they might have survived "if we had a normally functioning system".

He added: "What do you do if somebody has a chest infection? Normally those people might have been sent to hospital, they might then have had some kind of intravenous antibiotics and then returned to the care home."

The Department for Health has been approached for comment.

There appears to be a notable lag between hospital deaths and care home deaths.... I can’t think of a good reason for why this might be so, other than it’s a reporting issue, and there is more of a delay in reporting care home deaths.

This might explain why our hospital to care home death ratio is so high compared to other countries where it’s more 50:50.

tooty There are v few cases under 18 and not many more for age19-30
The risks rise after 40 and more significiantly after age 50

@tawnygrisettes I've been wondering the same 🤔

I maybe being a dork/bit slow (& I certainly haven't read all the many threads, but I have dipped in and out occasionally) but I found this which talks about deaths over the 5 year average for each week - that would included hospital deaths? so the difference between the 2 is the extra deaths whether nursing home or otherwise?

I do like stats but I haven't really been able to deal with them during this as it's scary; be gentle my mum was admitted to a carehome today

@Mumlove5

I expect that’s part of the general reason for the level of excess deaths reported by the ONS. Covid is a very substantial factor, but not the only factor. Of course, the lockdown could mean fewer deaths of some types. India is a good example - overall deaths have fallen, which is startling!

Derby The countries that don't include care home deaths in the total very probably have the same reason as the UK:

delay in data becoming available, as it goes through a very different process (and via ONS for the UK) to hospital deaths
They look like the majority of countries, in fact

Germany reports care home deaths automatically electronically to the RKI, just like hospitals
The other countries that include care home deaths - Belgium, France, Ireland - probably have a similar automatic integrated system

@Derbygerbil

How have deaths in India fallen? Weren’t they on lockdown for less time than the UK?

Lockdown would reduce many other significant causes of death:

RTAs especially, also work accidents, public alcohol-related accidents & fights, flu

This shows COVID and all-cause deaths compared to 5-year average for

1. the 45-64 age group, the middle-aged workers, often in more senior roles

2. the 65-74 age group, the fairly fit, recently retired

These groups are probably the ones the lockdown is really intended to save

I guess covid-19 is a blip in the radar for India... 2.2 million deaths from TB!

“In India, each year, approx. 2,20,000 deaths are reported due to Tuberculosis.”

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis_in_India

lockdown is mostly intended to save those in the 40-65 age group that either have a health condition, or ... are just unlucky,
plus those aged 65-75, who on average have several years of retirement to enjoy

Indeed, but a PP mentioned that the % of lives saved has been 0.02 in the first and 0.08 in the second. In other words, mere single figures in every ten thousand, at the cost of colossal damage caused to practically everything else

I don't pretend to have the in depth knowledge of so many on these threads, but I recognise an imbalance when I see it ... and while any death is awful for those involved, many feel the price the vast majority are having to pay simply isn't worth it

@Mumlove5

An article on the phenomenon:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-asia-india-52363791

I’m not entirely surprised by this. Pollution - which has now all but disappeared - in India’s cities must have accelerated many deaths, and their traffic accident fatality rate is ordinarily appalling (which of course is well down in their lockdown). However, of all the places on Earth, I’m really surprised Covid hasn’t taken off in India, even given its lockdown.

Here's a chart showing how many deaths were registered between 19-25 April that dated from before 10 April.

In other words, it shows the problems with counting deaths by date of death - there were at least a dozen deaths at home for each week for the whole current year, reported only last week. The product of the extra deaths adds up to 32%, but there's clearly a longer tail than that.

For care home deaths things are much more straightforward - most within a week, a further 10% in 3 weeks, and then just a few % more after that.

Hospital deaths have a longer tail but with less of a week 2 spike, such that we likely have a similar number of missing deaths after 1 week as with care homes - around 13-15%.

There's therefore a need to inflate ALL past weeks deaths, so that in fact we did not have 6014 people dying in week 1, but some slightly larger number.

The effect of this is not too significant, but essentially if we add 3% to last week's care home deaths and 13% to this week's (by date of death) we'll be in the right area.

And this week's 'at home' death figure of 4,447 (by DoD) will probably end up at around 6,000 by the end of the year when nearly all the data is in.

This is not particularly apparent in the ONS data, which shows 4570 registrations during the same week (registered to 17 April), a rise from 4117 a week earlier (registered to 10 April). Normal weeks are 2700, and as such if the rate of death is constant throughout the year (it isn't), and also the delay in regstrations, it would imply that the number of weekly registrations should be similar to the number of weekly deaths.

However, we now know there are 4114 home deaths who died in the week to 10 April already registered, so therefore clearly the effect of lag means that the weekly home death registrations are below the actuals.

@mumlove5 that's 2.2 lakh. 220,000. not 2.2 million

Puzzled I was the poster who calculated the % saved - because it was small
but then we have to remember that we are in lockdown,
so in fact we saved multiples of those numbers
and the crisis is not yet over

Developing countries are likely to be less vulnerable than the West,
because many people with underlying health conditions don't survive there to even middle age

and of course the carnage that Aids caused in Africa especially has left a very young population

Median population Age

17 Uganda
22 Ghana
25 Egypt
28 India
vs
47 Italy
46 Germany
45 Spain
42 France
41 Sweden
40 UK
38 Ireland
38 NZ
38 Australia

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

Of course, the minority in developing countries who are middle-aged or elderly will suffer greatly
but the % who are vulnerable is much lower than in Western countries

@Puzzledandpissedoff

Those rates look far too low to me... What are they based on?

The actual figures from NYC show a death rate of 0.4% of 65-74 year olds across the whole of its population, not just those infected. On the basis a recent a study showing that 25% of NYC has CV antibodies, that’s more like 1.6%, or 160 per 10,000 as opposed to just 8! In fact, the figure is higher still as the stats used confirmed Covid deaths rather than actual estimate published by the city.

NYC is particularly useful as it provides real data for a substantial portion of the population rather than being based on a model, so at the very least it gives ‘lowest possible’ case fatality rates. So even if the 25% antibody figure was way off, and NYC had improbably achieved complete herd immunity (!), the death rate for 65-74s couldn’t be less than 0.4%.

NYC also blows the low bound estimates that Covid has a death rate of just 0.1%... it’s already double that!

www.statista.com/statistics/1109867/coronavirus-death-rates-by-age-new-york-city/

A solitary person living along could die at home and not be discovered for months
Some hospital deaths could take a couple of weeks to register if say they need cause of death and the pathologist is busy

However, I am shocked that any death at a care home or hospital could take 16 weeks to register

This crisis is revealing some non-COVID facts & issues I hadn't considered before.

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Tuesday APRIL 28th

Total UK cases: 161,145
New UK cases: 3,996
Total UK Deaths: 21,678
New UK Deaths: 586

derby There were some figures suggested upthread as extra deaths in the UK in those age groups
Without lockdown, they would be much much larger

I was curious and calculated the lockdown numbers as a % of that age group in the entire UK population,
so it came to a small % because

Uk age group 40-64 has about 15 million
Uk age group 65-75 has just under 5 million

As at 5pm on Monday, there were 332 prisoners who had tested positive for the virus across 69 prisons,
an increase of 2% in 24 hours.
PHE analysis indicates 1800 possible cases

15 inmates have died directly or indirectly from Covid

The number of prison staff who tested positive rose by 7% to 317 workers in 24 hrs