Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 7

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 7 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

with live -> live with

Also when you don't have a functioning health system to start with, it's impossible for covid-19 to wreck it. People get sick they die, they get buried, no hospital no TV camera, the end.

There are considerable experimental data showing that vitamin D is important in regulating and suppressing the inflammatory cytokine response of respiratory epithelial cells and macrophages to various pathogens including respiratory viruses. Evidence that vitamin D might protect against infection is modest but it is important to note that the hypothesis is not that vitamin D would protect against SARS-CoV-2 infection but that it could be very important in preventing the cytokine storm and subsequent Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome that is commonly the cause of mortality.” excerpt from uni Liverpool paper.
COVID-19, vitamin D and latitude

Don’t get me wrong- I’m taking D supplements! Just believe the picture is more complicated.

Catching up, great posts as per usual

Maybe a perfect storm of high population density, late hospital admission, obesity, northerly latitude with, high proportion BAME.

BAME numbers don't affect the total. Yes, because they have a higher age-adjusted risk, but then it ends up lower overall than the white people in the same locations who are much older on average. If it wasn't for immigrants, Britain's population would be both much lower, and much younger.

Simple obesity itself is 100% most definitely NOT a significant risk factor. Morbid obesity might be, but we don't have enough of that for it even to BEGIN to be affecting our numbers in a way that would get us from say, Rome (fuck all) to London (many thousands of deaths). There are global stats for morbid obesity, super morbid obesity, etc. - the UK doesn't enter into those charts. For that you'd be looking at the US, the Middle East (for men), some Pacific islands, etc. Not the UK

“Also when you don't have a functioning health system to start with, it's impossible for covid-19 to wreck it. People get sick they die, they get buried, no hospital no TV camera, the end.”
I disagree otherwise malaria and Ebola etc wouldn’t be an issue

Thanks to those who answered my query last night about just how many of us have been infected. The response was 3-5% with a possible 10% on a good at with an R in the month...so at 5% and over 30,000 dead, we can expect to lose over half a million people before this is over? Is that correct?

@Howaboutanewname Sounds roughly right to me.

That assumes everyone will catch it though? I think the current plan is that people don’t catch it.

There is the current plan, and there is what will happen if too many people decide that they are likely to be ok so why bother with social distancing // isolation on symptoms etc

Coming back in here for some sanity and facts , it's comforting

@Howaboutanewname I’m not sure that follows though, does that allow for improved treatment as our understanding of the disease grows?

Re vit d, Anyone can start a petition and I don't know who this is. Number of linked research papers at the end. From "that" vit d group. (Barracker knows who!)

https://www.change.org/p/1-in-5-in-the-uk-have-low-vitamin-d-the-who-advises-1-in-5-become-seriously-ill-from-covid-19-uk-government-should-research-now-for-a-plan-b-if-vaccine-s-don-t-work-scientists-suggest-vitamin-d-holds-the-answer-to-mass-protection-let-us-research-now?utmsource=shareepetition&utmmedium=custommurl&recruitedbyy_id=175af880-72be-11e7-a39b-591ee56f2cd5

Whoa that's a bit of a link and I'm not sure it works? sorry.

A quick google tells me yes, Brazil has a vitamin D deficiency problem too.

"Brazilian Ministry of Health, the percentage of obese people increased from 11.8% in 2006 to 19.8% in 2018."

Is there a thread 8 yet please?

I actually think our death percentage though on paper seems high is actually not that high.

These virus we keep hearing puts 20% in hospital but from what I've read and observed on here many many cases which in a normal flu season would have put those people in hospital are being kept at home to battle on.

This and no decent levels of testing mean we have actually no way of finding our true accurate numbers until we get decent anti body testing through the whole population.

I believe the numbers affected (80% mild plus I think another good chunk of battler patients) and those actually ending up in hospital is huge!

@Howaboutanewname estimates vary.

Depends on when virus entered country and started spreading.

Depends on what percentage asymptomatic.

Depends on infection fatality rate.

Depends on whether thinking about London or Norfolk.

@Howaboutanewname

I think that’s overly pessimistic, at least I hope so... Firstly, you wouldn’t expect 100% to get infected... so you’d get herd immunity between around 60-80%. Secondly, I think we’re only looking at that level of death if we fail to socially distance effectively until there’s a vaccine. Things would need to go off the rails quite a bit for that to happen.

@whatsnext2 and @derbygerbil. Thank you. So if R is kept below 1, death rate would be considerably less? But if R creeps up, death rate will head towards the half million mark. The lower R is, the slower we get infected so the more likely treatments and vaccine are to creep in before we get the herd immunity?

But if no treatment or vaccine kicks in over the time it takes us to get to herd immunity, the death rate will still be over half a million?

My understanding is that the plan (and I’m
making no comment on how successful or otherwise it will be) is essentially long term containment via test and trace. If the virus is contained then you would hope that small numbers of people would get the virus at any one time and hopefully, fewer numbers overall.

I did a very rough calculation yesterday that at 20,000 new infections a day it would take over 7 years to achieve 80% herd immunity. I would assume that the number of new infections would drop well down in the next month or so. If that happens it will take even longer.

I would hope we’ve got a good chance of getting a vaccine or certainly improved drug treatment well before then.

@Howabout. Boris just said 0.5m deaths was reasonable worst case scenario. But still lots of variables as I mentioned above.

But yes, if no treatment or vaccine then either social control measures or deaths.

Very silly not to mention masks.

So whilst we could lose 500,000 people as a result of covid and no vaccine or medical support is found over a period of about 7 years? The majority of which would be over 80 years old and with co-morbidities. Likely to be some 'collateral damage' amongst medical professionals, supermarket workers, bus drivers, teachers...., regardless of age but again, more than likely with some other illness as well?

Will it be the case that death statistics from now until whatever time we are all vaccinated or there is herd immunity show very little excess deaths in that the majority of people who die over that time frame would likely have died anyway?

I guess it depends on the transmissibility or R. If it has been around for longer and is less transmissible than original thoughts then better.

Lower R would mean lower herd immunity % needed.

However might still mean economy, workplaces, hospitals etc still f*cked which means lots of extra deaths from poverty, medica backlogs etc

However might still mean economy, workplaces, hospitals etc still fcked which means lots of extra deaths from poverty, medica backlogs etc*

yes, of course, I guess that is yet to come. Really is a massive change to our way of life.