Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 7

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 7 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Place marking. Thank you for these excellent threads all contributors

Thanks so much for this thread. It mostly goes over my head but I find it reassuring nonetheless.

The new cases seems to have hovered around about the 4,000 ish mark for a while now. Can we assume though that new infections are falling because more tests are being done? Would that be right? So the increased testing hasn't resulted in an increase of identified new cases?

Does that make sense?

King’s College London study is a cluster analysis of lockdown opinion

www.kcl.ac.uk/policy-institute/assets/Coronavirus-in-the-UK-cluster-analysis.pdf

"The Accepting, The Suffering and The Resisting, based on previously published data from a survey of 2,250 UK residents aged 18-75, from 1- 3 April 2020, carried out by Ipsos MORI."

The three groups of people responding to the coronavirus crisis

There are three clusters of attitudes, expectations and behaviours relating to coronavirus among the UK public:

those accepting the current situation
those suffering as a result of it and
those resisting it.

Members of the three clusters are distinguished by

their levels of support for the lockdown measures and their compliance with them,
by how well they are coping under the current circumstances,
by the extent to which they are following official guidance,
and by their expectations about how those circumstances will change in the future.

Thank you Barracker for the new thread. I read this interesting and thought provoking article earlier, posted on another thread:

quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/

I have been trying to look at the government charts from the update. I have a link but is appears to be broken, would someone mind linking them again? I think Chaz sometimes does this. I find this information very difficult to find from the government and wish they were more transparent.

I haven't followed every thread, but lurk and pick out the context and explanation you are so brilliant at providing.

This chart off another thread indicates the UK is doing appallingly in comparison with other countries.

Is it accurate? I'm surprised not to have seen more comment if so.

@BigChocFrenzy

There were some figures suggested upthread as extra deaths in the UK in those age groups
Without lockdown, they would be much much larger

Thanks for the context - that makes sense. My concern was that @Puzzledandpissedoff had grossly underestimated the real impact of Covid.

@picklemewalnuts can you link the chart? Many are not fair comparisions since a few countries have care homes added fo their no.s for example. As far a i know the ft ones are more comparable. Experts on this thread will be able to give you more info.

Place marking. This thread helps to keep me sane.

Humphrie can you see the chart? I've posted a pic. It's labelled as being from EuroMomo- I don't know if that's a paper, an online data generator or what.

It seems that yesterday was the first day that the reported deaths in the USA exceeded the total for whole of Europe.

Only last week Trump was stating that forecasts indicated that total US deaths to August would be around 60,000 based on the a White House’s favoured model. As of this morning it stands at 59,266 (as per Worldometers) with a 2,470 rise reported yesterday alone.

A week is a long time with Covid....

@pickle, no sorry I cant see the chart, but i will look online.

www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/#z-scores-by-country

Is it this one, which appears to show excess deaths by country? Yes that does on the face of appear scary.

I have been trying to look at the government charts from the update.

Here is the link to all the daily slides used at government briefings:

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences

The American numbers are terrifying. Am I wrong in thinking though that the mood of the Americans themselves is that they are not overly concerned?

Another very interesting More or Less on Radio 4.

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000hn4s

This time explaining why the time between lockdown (23 March) and the peak in deaths (8 April) is consistent with lockdown leading to the peak. It's to do with the fact that the best measure of time from infection to death is the mode rather than the median, and the median is skewed to a longer time period because there are relatively few "fast" deaths but relatively many "slow" deaths, the latter caused by people lingering on until they unfortunately die.

It also looks at deaths in ethnic minority communities due to Coronavirus but wasn't able to make much progress beyond "there does seem to be something there, many factors, no answers, need more data".

Nauticant yes I heard that. I’m glad that the assertion re peak from actions prior to lock down was addressed.

Similar, Humphries. Mine shows England, N Ireland Wales Scotland.

But if England's z score is 50, while Italy's is 20, and Spain is 35...

What is that telling us? Appalling state of the NHS? Mishandling of initial lockdown? On the face of it, that's a shocking situation, yet it doesn't seem to be being shouted about.

@peoplepleaser1 The America numbers look terrifying but it's partly because of their population being so large. In terms of deaths/1M they're doing better than a lot of countries, including Ireland and the Netherlands. Now that might change in the next week or so because their numbers seem quite stable whereas most European countries are now trending down.

My American family (spread across the east and mid-west) don't seem overly concerned. Schools are cancelled but they all have so much land that they're able to exercise without leaving their properties. They're definitely not meeting up as regularly as my Australian family who seem to be continuing as normal but with a couple of metres between them.

Yes MarshaBradyo, it's good to raise questions, eg "did lockdown lead to peaking in the UK?" and then find answers which can be used to support public policy. Much better than "we know best, you must do as we say".

That excess death chart is horribly sobering with regards to England.

Do we think that apples and apples are being compared? One thing we do know is that the ONS data on deaths is full and (relatively) timely. Do other countries have similarly reliable data? Genuine question.

Here's some more unnecessarily nerdy charts showing the differential late registrations of deaths by venue and region. Essentially only about 60% of the deaths at home in London who died in the week to 17 April will appear in the figures for death occurrences in that week. For the North it's more like 90%.

Ok perhaps this is a better view on that data.

These numbers are obtained by taking the reciprocal of the product of
the number of deaths registered to 25 April for a given week of death divided by the the number of deaths registered to 18 April for a given week of death, for each week between week 1 and week 15. This might not be completely accurate as a methodology, but it's along the right lines I think.

Thanks @wintertravel1980 , i can never find those graphs.
@picklemewalnuts your graph is there for me know! Dont know why i could not see it this morning. I have said this on many occasions but i dont like the relatively low no.s in hosptials and have felt this is having an affect.

Someone was asking about Sweden and whether care home deaths are included, as far as I can see they are. This article (in Swedish) www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/tegnell-vi-ligger-pa-lite-hogre-niva mentions excess deaths in weeks 13 & 14 as being almost the same as the number of reported Covid deaths