Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 7

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 7 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

There are issues with the Israeli suggestions; firstly they are assuming that tests will be accurate whereas we know there is a significant problem with false negatives. Secondly, they are assuming that those self-isolating won't infect anyone, whereas in fact self-quarantining will be done in family units. Thirdly, it assumes immediate test results, to tests carried out (presumably) the day before returning to work.

It could possibly work with accurate testing, and all members of a household doing the same 4 days on and 14 off. But ultimately from an economic point of view, this isn't much use (effectively a 2 day work/school week), and so isn't in any way a long term solution.

Checking in from Luxembourg

Checking in
Thanks @ShootsFruitAndLeaves @BigChocFrenzy @barracker and others for continuing to take the time to prep and post

The Israeli piece is fascinating, and can probably be simplified to still give a decent benefit. Eg I can wfh so am planning to for a very long period of time, and will resist any efforts to get me back in. I was already doing 4 days at home, which was a battle to get, and that extra day in the office just isn’t necessary . I think the govt is going to have to encourage a massive culture shift, for those occupations where it’s possible, for the good of everyone. These kinds of culture shifts are less painful in every sense but can make a difference.

I think the Israeli idea is only possible to properly administer & control if the same 4 days are chosen across the country, including for schools

Oviously someone who WFH every week anyway, only has the additional freedom of being able to go outside for leisure time on those 4 days,
e.g. to restaurants, even the gym

newAccount I think the idea is to minimise infection by basically a series of rolling 10-day lockdowns,
People would not need testing before returning to work / play, merely to be symptom-free,
or if not, then self-quarantining

It's a possible halfway house, for countries / cities concerned that general relaxation of measures would restart exponential growth

Yes that makes sense thanks for explaining, it’s quite hard to get my head around it! Therefore would it be a difficult thing to get a population to follow ?

It does seem like a really good idea for schools though?

Thanks for these threads and all the clear explanations of the different stats and issues. Much appreciated

I'm old enough to remember the UK's 3-day week in the early 1970s !

Thank you for this thread, it's really interesting to read all the stats.

Sorry if I’ve missed why but is there a reason why the graph that showed the broken line with where the daily deaths were expected to be is not being done on the thread now?

I always found that reassuring once it showed the average was dropping below the line

Has Africa been discussed? Seems like they’ll do far better than the few Western nations that are continuously mentioned. I have an idea why but too tired to get into it now.

Will hope we can gather data soon from about the continent.

Low Covid-19 death toll raises hopes Africa may be spared worst | Free to read

www.ft.com/content/e9cf5ed0-a590-4bd6-8c00-b41d0c4ae6e0

However, they’ll have starvation to worry cause by “?” :(

www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/world/africa/coronavirus-hunger-crisis.html

‘Instead of Coronavirus, the Hunger Will Kill Us.’ A Global Food Crisis Looms.

The world has never faced a hunger emergency like this, experts say. It could double the number of people facing acute hunger to 265 million by the end of this year.

Care Home deaths

Some of these "excess deaths" in care homes will be due to avoiding, or being refused, hospital admission for other ailments,

but many are likely COVID but not yet - or possibly ever - registered as such

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52289607

"Every year around 150,000 care home residents die,"
so around the 3,000 weekly in attached graph 1 (Sky)

England & Wales care homes had 3,093 official COVID deaths, plus 6,614 "excess" deaths
So 9,707 more deaths than normal

Graph 2 (Economist) shows some of the excess deaths around the world

ECDC table:

serology studies from Europe and USA, with % positive for antibodies

Has the average life expectancy of people in care homes been included?

eprints.lse.ac.uk/33895/1/dp2769.pdf

Median length of stay for people admitted to nursing beds was 11.9 months and for residential beds it was 26.8 months. In the PSSRU study, average length of stay was predicted at 29.7 months following admission

Hospitalisation

Charts from TESSy (European Surveillance System) and ECDC:

1. Hospitalisation severity levels with % and age & sex trends

   Sharp increase after age 50 - not normally counted as old, even on MN

2. Hospitalisation severity levels with % of various comorbidities and ages

   High risk conditions: CVD, high BP, lung disease, diabetes, neurological
   Smoking, obesity around 0% - don't seem significant
   Note: the highest % hospitalised - but not fatal - had no comorbidities

Has Africa been discussed? Seems like they’ll do far better than the few Western nations that are continuously mentioned. I have an idea why but too tired to get into it now.

Covid-19 seems to be impacting on first world countries worst. That seems to make sense given that we have become very good at extending the life of people well into old age along and those with underlying conditions.

Put bluntly, many of the people who have died of the virus in Europe and the US would likely already be dead if they lived in a typical sub-Saharan African country.

@BigChocFrenzy That care home excess graph doesn’t add up? 6,600 other excess plus 3000 Covid-19 is more than 9000. The graph goes up to around 7500? Am I misreading it?

@Derbygerbil Agreed

Chris Witty said 90% of people who died from Covid-19 had at least one co-morbidity, most likely 2-3?

FT overlaying ONS data for COVID, 5 -year flu average, all deaths 2020, all deaths 5-year average

Maybe they’re measuring the area under the graph? Confusing graphic.

Yep, Millicent That spike in deaths is off the graph scale
(sorry, I had to zoom in on the scale after your post, due to my crappy eyes)

@BigChocFrenzy forgive my inability to read data but does that show that under 30s cases rarely exist?