Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 7

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 7 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

From yesterday the nhs are testing anyone admitted to hospital for any reason as well

@BigChocFrenzy we should be clear about what the ONS actually says, because the Sky article is misleading

In its latest estimate, the Office for National Statistics calculated the death toll as of 17 April was 52% higher than the figure released by the government.

This is not in fact an estimate. It is a sum of the deaths reported in all venues, i.e. care home, hospital, at home, etc.. This is different from an estimate (which would be 'excess deaths', which ONS are not reporting).

It found 21,284 people died with the virus by that date, compared to the figure of 13,917 of hospital patient deaths announced on that date.

Yes but it was already extremely clear on that date that 13,917 did not represent the total of patients dead to that date, merely those reported to that date. The number now reported dead to that date is 15,380.

Attached is the ONS' chart. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/comparisonofweeklydeathoccurrencesinenglandandwales/latest

A true 'estimate' for covid-19 deaths would be higher than the ONS figure, which is merely 'all venue deaths reported with COVID-19', which is clearly different from the daily "NHS England hospital deaths'. We shouldn't expect one thing to be the other.

ffs, I can't believe it's taken them almost 2 months to do that Jrobhatch29, no wonder so many frontline staff are getting it.

They aren't testing all front line staff, only those with symptoms still.

Are the daily figures correct on the gov update on the television? They seem to be saying 500plus? Sorry i cant remember exactly what the no was.

A detailed article here on the Oxford study from the Irish Times. Sounds promising

www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/coronavirus-irish-scientist-s-team-leaps-ahead-in-race-to-find-a-vaccine-1.4239978?mode=amp

New My DH was in for a weekend 3 weeks ago. I was shocked they were still testing for MRSA but not CV back then. (He's fine - he has a history of heart probs so they gave him a thorough "going over" while he was in)

Hancock has just announced all symptomatic over 65s can be tested. I’m wondering about why, clinically, is it to get them into hospital quicker?

Also anyone who goes out to work. I’m wondering also if this will be a way to get schools back- testing of any children who are symptomatic, plus also maybe random testing daily.

Interesting the approach to testing - how does this compare to Germany’s method?

They’re also testing anyone in care homes, even if not symptomatic

@tootyfruitypickle has he said how this is going to be achieved? And I wonder why it's over 65s not over 70s....
Off to switch on radio!

Shoots I agree 21,284 is a total, not an estimate - but of the information available

Also, some of the "excess" deaths yet to be categorised - and some may never be confirmed - will be in fact COVID

There will probably be additional COVID deaths of the period up to DOD 17 April but to be reported later
e.g. delayed post-mortem tests etc .... or people discovered dead at home, long after the event

Some of our data is either from a previous period, fuzzy ... or both

However, I still envy the Uk having the ONS
There are disadvantages to a very decentralised federal structure like Germany and the frustrating extra delay in national statistics is one of them
(maybe much more so for Merkel)

Due to expanded capacity ! It’s a huge increase in numbers who can be tested though .

I’m finding today’s briefing quite encouraging

I wonder if it will be over 50s next, and so on

"how this is going to be achieved "

Well, here is part of the extra test kits the NHs should be - finally - receiving:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/NCYT/contract-with-uk-department-of-health-e278bb1rtw59g6k.html

Paris, France and Camberley, UK - 27 April 2020

Under the terms of the agreement,
Novacyt will supply its COVID-19 test to the DHSC for an initial term of six months,
starting from 4 May 2020.

Novacyt has initially committed to supply 288,000 tests per week to the DHSC for use in the NHS,
with the option to expand the agreement.

@tootyfruitypickle presumably, since we know that age group are more vulnerable.
Also - sorry, anecdotal here - but it would help the NHS if they knew as people are admitted whether they are covid positive. Currently my local hospital is guessing based on symptoms and admitting to covid/non covid wards based on that for 2-3 days until results of tests on admission come back. Then moving them when the results come back if they guessed wrong. Best possible way to spread the infection, but what else can they do when we don't have private rooms.
If the groups most likely to be admitted have tests in the community before they reach the point of admission it could remove, or at least diminish the guesswork over where to place them and that would reduce cross infection in hospitals dramatically.

Economic pressure in Germany pushing relaxation measures:

Q1 : Economy contracted 1.6%
By EOY, estimated contraction is 6.6%

1 in 6 retailers, that's 50,000 businesses, may become insolvent

@Quarantinequeen yes elective c sections and inductions are beginning to be asked to attend 2 days before admission for a test

Economic pressure in Germany pushing relaxation measures

If the economy is driving relaxation of measures in somewhere with the economic strength of Germany, then the pressure will be greater still is most other places. My concern is that much of the world simply won’t have the financial muscle to manage a winter wave of Covid (with added flu pressure) whilst furloughing and isolating.

As of this week any patient admitted to hospital should be tested for Covid-19.

There's also a project starting to assess asymptomatic prevalence amongst NHS staff. I've volunteered to be tested tomorrow

The latest testing in NYC seems to indicate 25% of the population has now got antibodies:

newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/04/27/coronavirus-antibodies-present-in-nearly-25-of-all-nyc-residents/

We have to get the economy restarted in about mid-May, to enable at least 4 months work to pay for a possible 2nd wave and lockdown over winter

Currently some school forms are back, but divided into shifts, 1 at home, 1 online and then swap back again

It's over 45 years since my schooldays, but we didn't have this much room then
Video of German school with social distancing, some with masks, ^
each child told at the entrance to wash hands first:

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/coronavirus-maskenpflicht-schulen-aenderungen-100.html

Thanks for new thread

Instead of the geographically-defined lockdowns discussed last thread,
there is an alternative time-shift lockdown proposal from Israeli researchers which Israel may try out in small areas and a few schools:

https://www.ft.com/content/5c208540-831c-11ea-b6e9-a94cffd1d9bf

"Most infected people are non-infectious for the first three days after infection and are at peak infectiousness at days 4-7.

So a 14-day cycle, that sees people go to work for four days and then be locked down for 10, would minimise the spread of the disease.

Most of those infected during work days would reach maximum infectiousness during lockdown, reducing the spread.

While those with severe symptoms can be infectious for longer,
they can also be detected by their symptoms, allowing their households to self-quarantine and minimise secondary infections.

Asymptomatic cases infected on workdays would spend the majority of their peak infectious period under lockdown.
Family-level and work-level rapid testing and quarantine, when symptoms arise, can help shorten infection chains."

Wow that Israeli system sounds fascinating but imagine the amount of compliance, testing and organisation it entails!

This will make interesting watching:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/newsbeat-52440641

I think the Israeli system sounds really interesting, especially for companies where you can work from home at least part of the time. If it's done on a rolling basis then it would also help with social distancing within the workplace because you'd have fewer people in the office at any one time.