Am I missing something? Everyone seems to have gone back to normal?!

[Aberforthsgoat]

So much traffic here today, we live on a main road and it's been quiet for weeks now but today it's suddenly back to how it was pre lockdown.
Loads of people out on the streets, in quite big groups, a massive load of runners in a group just gone by and earlier a huge group of cyclists
And I've not been watching out particularly we our living room looks out over the road and I've been stuck under DS with the windows open and just looked up when I've heard noise.
Do you think people have had enough and just gone back to normal after all the media articles this week?
Did I miss an announcement? Not being disingenuous honestly wondering, I can't find anything online

New Zealand seems so far to have cracked it by locking down early and strictly but more importantly by saying to people to act as if they themselves carry the virus.

New Zealand has a population half the size of London and is not an international transit hub. They never got to sustained community transmission of the virus. The approach is not relevant to the UK.

Most companies who closed didn’t actually need to in the first place.

Lots of reasons for that. Mostly misunderstandings in the media which suggested only "essential" workers could work. Then, for those that stayed open, there was a lack of customers which made it unviable due to making losses. Some firms couldn't "social distance" their staff, such as small shops, takeaways, cafes etc. Some firms lost their staff due to school closures! It's why it will take a long time to reverse the lockdown and it will be a very slow and painful process.

Also adjustments had to be made. Timpsons re opening with extra precautions in place (screens etc).

New Zealand seems so far to have cracked it by locking down early and strictly but more importantly by saying to people to act as if they themselves carry the virus.

Perhaps their population is more compliant and sensible.

In the UK, before the lockdown, people were told to social distance, to avoid unnecessary journeys, to work from home, to wash their hands more, to catch coughs/sneezes, to self isolate if they had symptoms.

Far too many ignored that advice, hence the lockdown! There are even people who admitted to going to Cheltenham races and Liverpool football match even though they had symptoms.

What can you do when people blatently ignore what they're being told? Perhaps people are more arrogant in the UK than NZ??

People are quite lax in comparison to other countries here, eg Sweden, but also NZ was later on the timing which helped. So it could benefit from greater public understanding and acceptance whilst locking down very early in the curve.

National trends do indicate that the majority of people are abiding by the guidelines. Road traffic at 35% of normal levels, Rail & Tube running at 5% capacity, buses 15%, airports 25%, park use 40%. So anecdotally you may be "seeing more people out" in a local pocket, but national statistics indicate otherwise.

That’s good Yankee. I reckon the weather will have an impact too, lots of rain forecast for next couple of weeks.

I’ve been thinking this for the past week but then yesterday despite the glorious weather my local park was almost empty whereas it has been quite busy.

@twinnywinny14
It does seem to be very contagious, with a lot asymptomatic people. If we extrapolate the data we know ( based on sampling and deaths) the death rate is low and similar to the flu. There may have been strains of the flu or previous corona viruses that were just as contagious but no one was tested and no one shut down the economy.
We know that pretty much ALL the beds are spare.
People are dying because of lack of health care.
The fall out economically is not worth this level of destruction.
The death numbers are being fudged a bit. The way they report on the deaths are suspect.
I don't know why this is happening, why the governments are supporting this level of destruction, but enough is enough and this needs to be stopped.
Please, watch the video (sounds so stupid of me to say, but these doctors go into detail why self isolation is Not the answer)
Let's have some critical thinking here, instead of just regurgitating the fear porn we watch every day from the "experts"

I haven’t seen ANY doctors saying self isolation is not the answer! Not one.

My park is dead again today so that’s good

People are dying because of lack of health care.

There is no evidence yet if the extra deaths are related to lack of health care or if they are unrecorded Covid deaths. We will need to wait and see if the extra thousands of weekly deaths are from things like cancer and strokes not being treated or if they are likely to have been non-hospital Covid deaths.

@YankeeinKingArthursCourt

Interestingly though I caught a bus last week and they had sealed the driver off effectively. Entrance was the usual exit doors and the area and seats near the driver were sealed off with tape, so you couldn't use the oyster card reader at the front of the bus. I assume they are using payments or oyster card tap ins as the basis for their figures?

Thousands flocked to Cheltenham and Anfield. Thousands were still leaving the UK to fly on holidays abroad!

Government sanctioned Cheltenham going ahead - hardly a respect of social distancing or advocating it. Our PM went onto a ward in a hospital and shook hands with Covid19 patients

What a message to send on both counts

The message from government was loud and clear / take it on the chin if granny dies

But it's not just proximity is it? There must also be the extra dimension of time. Two people simply walking within 2 metres of eachother is very unlikely to transmit the disease unless one coughs or sneezes or spits. Transmission is more likely if they talk to or touch eachother as they pass. However if they stop and chat for 5 minutes, less than 2 metres apart, then the risk of transmission is a lot higher. If they hug and kiss before and after the 5 minute chat, then risk of transmission is probably infinitely higher.

We still don't seem to have accurate statistics/data/analysis as to what activity actually causes the virus to pass. Would it really be transmitted from 2 random people walking past eachother with neither doing anything unusual(other than normal breathing)??? Likewise, is it really being passed around from people touching objects such as touch screens, hand rails, etc? We need this data before we can even start to think about relaxing the lock down as some parts of social distancing etc may be pointless and unnecessary.

@DippyAvocado
People are discouraged from going to the hospital for face to face consultations. Treatments for cancer are being stopped. You state that could be a result of Covid?
People that are asymptomatic, and die of a heart attack, are being recorded as a Covid death, despite the fact that Covid did not directly OR indirectly cause their death. That is inflation of death numbers. Even without the inflation, if you were to compare the number of deaths to influenza it is similar. Your chances of dying of it are similar also. If we take the data we have now ( not from the beggining when they stated it was 10 times more deadly than influenza), the death rate is similar.

Isolated do you mean they die and then they are tested? Do you see this in NHS or have a link?

On numbers there so many in care homes and community omitted and early studies show positive to negative over time it’s very incomplete data.

No isolated I'm not saying anything like that. I have said there is a significant increase in the overall death rate compared to the average and we don't yet have the evidence for the precise causes of all the deaths. I have not said people dying of cancer are recorded as dying from Covid. Until someone has analysed the data for how many excess cancer deaths there were compared to normal levels we won't know if there have been more than normal. Likely, I presume, if people are not accessing their treatment but that data is not there to see.

However, it's likely that in the midst of a pandemic many of the excess deaths are caused by Covid but may not have been recorded as such. This spike in excess deaths is happening in many countries affected by the pandemic across the world with the suspicion that there is serious under-reporting. www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

@MarshaBradyo
No, I do not have a link. There are simply first-hand accounts from doctors, which I understand most people will not believe. Many doctors are afraid to speak out about this issue, because it does not align with what the experts are saying. I don't know if they are tested before or prior to death.
There was a very large thread a week ago about empty hospitals. This is happening all over the world. Initially this was being displayed in the media as lies that conspiracy theorists were making up.
I know people on this thread have read extensively on this issue. Can anyone, anyone, state what the death rate is, when they extrapolate the data to the whole population, based on th data collected in the past couple of months? They do not provide this on the news because it doesn't align with their narrative. We believed it was 10 times deadlier than influenza initially, and yes we self isolated because we did not have data on this new virus. Now that we have the data, why don't they provide us with a stat?
I use the crude term fear porn because that's what this is. We need to stop being so afraid, and really think critically about the destructive path the government has set us on.

@DippyAvocado
I understand what youre saying now. We will see in time.
The problem is in the way that Covid deaths may be recorded, and how these numbers are being used to fit the narativne. I am sure there are some that are dying at home directly of Covid and may not be recorded as such, but we can not know for sure.
We will not know what the numbers of indirect deaths are (say a cancer patient who did not access treatment in time) until maybe even years down the line.

The data is difficult. Care homes run into high numbers, so not just at home which may not be that many. If they wanted a narrative as you say the figures could be double if so wished.

Empty hospitals show over capacity but some areas have been overrun. We have much more capacity than we did though. It appears to be regional and very difficult to predict.

There are death stats floating around on here. Hopefully someone will link. It’s up but also need clarification on extra complications that have been reported due to CV19 such as stroke.

It would be interesting to know more about testing and cause of death, and stats I agree.

Deaths because of postponed cancer treatment or (non-Covid induced) heart attacks at home are Covid related. Indirectly, but still because of the pandemic. Doctors have said they're seeing Covid induced heart attacks so some heart attacks at home will be directly caused by Covid. With cancer, I've said the same on another thread. Cancer patients are caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. It only takes one unknowingly infected patient or HCP to spread Covid through a cancer ward - to a group of patients who are highly vulnerable to Covid.

I'm not sure why anedoctal empty hospitals elsewhere in the world is relevant to the UK? We have one of the highest death rates so far. Whether directly or indirectly caused by Vivid, deaths are way up from the usual number in other years. As a PP has said it's largely regional here. Some hospitals are clearly overwhelmed. In London they tried to ease the pressure by transferring patients to the nightingale but couldn't because the nightingale lacks staff. Parts of the UK where there are less Covid cases are keeping hospitals quiet precisely so that they continue to have less cases. Hospitals are an easy place for viruses to spread - to a very vulnerable population. Having said that, I wonder why patients aren't being transferred from full hospitals to quieter ones?

Yes, @KatherineJaneway . I've heard about the London buses change, but perhaps now drivers taking a tally - very good question.

@Isolatedbunny I'm really surprised at your assertions, particularly as they are largely anecdotal ( "doctors I've spoken with") rather than data compiled by: WHO, PHE, CDC, Johns Hopkins etc. Based on data from these organisations ( go to their websites) Average global seasonal flu R0 (ie# of people you infect): 1.3, Covid19: 2 to 3, hospitalisation flu : 1.1%, Covid19: 20%, mortality flu: 0.1% , Covid19 1-2%. This is based on glibal data. Please look at the data and beware of spreading erroneous information based on supposition / anecdotal or simply personal experience only.

I'm impressed with how well people have complied so far. It's a little busier now, but still pretty quiet round here.
I see a big split in opinion among people I know: women want to continue lockdown, men very sceptical.

My view, we could have achieved as much with good advice: people wanted to help. If they give sensible advice, backed with reason, people will continue to support.

Cancer patients are caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. It only takes one unknowingly infected patient or HCP to spread Covid through a cancer ward - to a group of patients who are highly vulnerable to Covid.

Yes, wards are obviously more risky because patients are there longer, eating/drinking there, going to the toilet there, etc., so far more time spent and far more people.

But what about day treatment, i.e. for chemo and other infusions. Some, like my OH were only in for an hour for their regular infusions, so no need for eating/drinking/toilet and very limited exposure to staff. Yet, that's stopped too!

My OH can't even get his regular monthly blood test. The oncology dept cancelled his last two and after him pushing them by phoning twice a week, they've finally "pencilled him in" for a blood test mid July!!

To say the cancer treatment is carrying on almost as normal is a joke - it's not in our local hospital - far from it.