"Some" disruptive social distancing to be in place till the end of the year

[Frompcat]

Says Chris Witty. Nothing unexpected but I really wish they would say what they're talking about when they say shit like this. What does "some" mean? Schools? WFH? Family visits?

People will have to realise the trade offs between having the virus slowly passing through the population in a manageable way, with deaths sadly and unavoidably, against crashing the economy and causing so many more avoidable deaths.

Or option 3: suppress the virus through testing and contact tracing until there's a vaccine or a better treatment for it.

It can't slowly pass through the population in a manageable way, it's too virulent and lands too many people in hospital. That was the subject of the Imperial College paper the government based its decisions around in mid-May: you can't let it pass through and mitigate the damage, you'd have to do rolling lockdowns or it'll totally overwhelm the health service. The government used to assume we'd all get it and they could mitigate the damage. They're no longer assuming that.

It's good that the government is talking about testing and tracing as an alternative to doing nothing or having on-and-off lockdowns for a year. It's a much much better option and it's the one that most countries coming out of the other side of this seem to be gravitating towards. But it is a bit worrying that a lot of work has to be done to be able to test enough people and have an infrastructure for contact tracing, and it's unclear how much has been done here or what the concrete plan actually is.

It’s a Total mess . There will be civil unrest am sure if they don’t sort out what they are doing by end of this lockdown period I think

I was delighted and amazed by how honest Whitty was today. Breath of fresh air.

I mean, I hate every moment of Lockdown. It's definitely not my political decision to stop r0 getting noticeably above 1.0 given the bad effects on DC, my life, my finances (etc). I'm still glad someone was honest about what that political decision means.

MNers seem to heavily support this decision. All I ever read hear is how Lockdown should be harsher & come in sooner. I am a bit "eye brows raised" that given such strong support for Lockdown on MN, that anyone is surprised by what Whitty said or that so many are upset about it.

Most people are still working their normal jobs

^ out of the 11 adults in my family 10 have lost their jobs as a result of the lockdown.

Because a restaurant is a private establishment, @AnxiousElephant77.

The government could for instance make wearing masks compulsory on public transport or in the street, whilst allowing businesses to set their own rules.

anyone is surprised by what Whitty said or that so many are upset about it.

I'm not surprised or upset, I just want more clarity.

But what Witty said today was no surprise, lockdown was never going to solve covid and my worry is what it has always been - all we’re doing is pushing the next big peak into the next flu season.

Lockheart, I'm very happy for you that you don't you don't have a need for close proximity to strangers.That must be a wonderful position to be in. I'm in the position where I have zero support from my family and live alone with my 4 year old daughter in a new town, where I feel very isolated and don't have many friends. Being able to talk to the few friends I have or even strangers, without having to worry about standing 2 meters apart is something that I greatly miss.

2 meters apart

Do people really think restaurants, pubs and cafes will be profitable if everyone has to sit 2m apart and no bar queues? They'd lose about 75% of takings, and those sorts of businesses hardly rake money in to start with.

Things will improve in terms of what we can and can't do.

I'm pretty straight down the line with what the current situation is and how it is affecting civil liberties and freedom.

But it will improve.

It's just not going to be quick, in the sense that it's going to go on for considerably longer than most people have got their heads around and the government are saying outright and bluntly.

The government are being to prepare the public for this reality and this is apparent from a number of comments that have been made in the last few days.

It's not going to be without cost though. There are a lot of families who are going to lose someone and its going to be particularly hard if you are of a certain age and/or have certain health conditions.

At some point everyone is going to have to come to terms with this, because 'reality'. It's not something we have an active choice in.

I personally am doing OK without an end date, because I have in my head what needs to happen for it to be safe / or to be reassured by science available. And I can see daily progress in that from the data we are given in press conferences. It's a language I understand and although there is no firm end I can process this. Plus I've got my head around how prolonged this might be (which was not easy at first but its something everyone has to deal with at some point)

I also understand that not everyone can read data and politics in the way I do (it's like a picture I can draw in my head of the world). And I understand there is something if a need for people to feel they are moving forward rather than stuck in some sort of limbo. It's psychologically important and I'm not sure the government are really providing this.

I was talking to a friend in New Zealand who said she was looking forward to 'Level 3 of lockdown' where it would be at the level of the UK so she could get a takeaway. I thought that was a really good idea. They have split lock down into levels which are clearly defined in what you can and can't do, and the country can move up and down levels depending on where the outbreak is at. They've been told that if things progress as projected they reach the next level and lockdown can be relaxed a bit. And that stage should last around a fortnight - again with caveats on things going to plan - with schools reopening at that next level.

It makes it easier for everyone to see where things are and almost incentivises people to keep to the plan. It gives people a psychological guide.

If things are tightened up again, that will be tough but I think that's true if everywhere.

I kind of wish the government could draw up some kind of parameters along these lines.

The fact they aren't just highlights to me that they haven't done this, and there isn't a cohesive plan on what happens next. I don't think the leadership vacuum with Johnson on sick leave and Raab determined not to ruffle feathers and make unilateral decisions in Johnson's absence helps in the slightest. It just adds to the overall feeling of 'is this ever going to end' and the government not being in control of the situation which unnerved people even if they don't realise exactly what is unnerving them.

It's frustrating and exacerbates the sense of not being in control of your life.

As I say, despite what others perceive to be my very pessimistic tone, I do think things will relax and improve. Simply because the desire for change for the better isn't going away. Life won't be the same as before - a lot of things needed to change - but we also don't know what those changes will be.

In this sense we will come out of this with a mentality and an idea of the futures we want in a much clearer vision because people have had so much time to reflect on it.

In the midtime, it's about living in the moment and just getting through individual days rather than constantly wishing away your life or constantly dreaming of a future event such as a holiday that's just never going to happen this summer.

This is a long haul. We need mental stamina for it. And for that we psychologically need to understand and prepare for that which is what the government are proving to be poor at.

It won't be like this indefinitely. We just have to learn patience.

Laniakea

I know all that; that isn't what the thread is about.

If they're going for delaying the peak then letting the virus have free reign would be best done in the summer, when it's unlikely to coincide with seasonal flu.

I don't think there's been any solid evidence that the warmer weather and higher humidity in summer would have an impact on how the virus behaves as yet?

Most people are still working their normal jobs

I am one of the fortunate people who still, for now, has a job. However, there is nothing 'normal' about having to teach classes online from my kitchen table and meet marking deadlines all whilst caring for two toddlers who are in the house 24/7. It's not 'normal', it's not sustainable, it's not professional, it's not good parenting, my employer is not going to support the shoddy fashion in which I'm doing my job indefinitely and my mental health is not going to support the constant state of every thought and action being interrupted by someone who needs something else with no quiet time EVER, no time off EVER, no paid or family childcare support EVER indefinitely.

My situation is pretty typical of the people 'still working their normal job'. So even discounting the very real things that other posters have said about huge HUGE numbers of people losing income, their whole jobs or entire livelihoods, that argument rather falls flat.

Or option 3: suppress the virus through testing and contact tracing until there's a vaccine or a better treatment for it.

Call me cynical but I don't think they have any intention of doing this.

They could have done this!

We had fair warning.

Forget testing, they're still not even implementing isolating people right now.

If you have symptoms you are allowed to go for exercise, your daily walk etc. Its fucking mind-boggling.

Yet apparently testing and contact tracing is the magic answer?

I believe it actually might be, I just don't think the gov have any intention of doing it.

Also to the person saying they've never met anyone against lockdown on real life, I wonder if this is a social class thing, or a location thing or something. I only know of two people IRL who would rather have us all locked down, and they both have what I would describe as health anxiety. Everyone else, my family, my old colleagues, and my friends, have said they would rather take their chances with the virus than continue this on for months. Even those who are over 70, and therefor at considerably higher risk.

I think this kinda comes in waves. It's almost like the stages of grief. You finally get to the acceptance stage, where you realise that realistically there is nothing we can do about it. They're not even sure if a virus is possible, and what if it just mutates? At some point you kinda have to accept that you, or your loved ones, might die. We're all dying eventually anyway.

You listen to the advice and ignore it. That’s been my plan, do the opposite of what those in power say. I love that all the sheep are staying in as it makes my trips out a lot easier and quicker.

@Sophism1 exactly. Just feel like the government has gone nuts

cannot do this home working/homeschooling thing for much longer, let alone until the end of the year. I just can’t. It’s too much. It’s not a sustainable arrangement.

Agree with this. I have had a family member die of Covid this week way before their time, but even I can see that at one point lockdown will become more damaging than protecting. I am going nuts dealing with this bereavement and doing two jobs of both teacher and my usual job, with a 13 month old getting into everything and wreaking havoc. My OH is having to use holiday to reduce his hours so I can work too and will soon have none left. He will work a year with no time off. It simply isn't fair when others are receiving 80% of their wages and being furloughed, although I'm incredibly sceptical that people claiming any kind of benefit from this will get it in the future since many businesses will go bust in the meantime.

It's no wonder people are starting to question if there is more to this than meets the eye.

I think that he was being cagey because if CW said that, say, no pubs until end of the year, then it would be necessary already to have costed plans in place to support them because that it the first thing that everyone is going to scream for.

The treasury has been working pretty much flat out to get furlough and self employment scheme up and running, so they probably don't yet have the full details as to what support would be in place up and running.

Same with schools - if the government said that effectively pupils would mostly be in school 50% until December then that would give rise to questions about how realistic it would be to have public exams in May or June for the next set of pupils.

You can't just announce that certain measures will be in place for ages and expect people not to have questions about the implications for them, so they have to have planned pretty much all the details agreed in advance, which is pretty cumbersome.

The government are being to prepare the public for this reality and this is apparent from a number of comments that have been made in the last few days.

This too seems like a coping strategy, though: the idea that there is a brutal reality which translates to a clear plan, and the government knows it and you know it but the masses must be gently nudged in that direction because the truth is too much to hear all at once.

I think many, many of us understand that 'social distancing measures' are not the same as full lockdown, and that 'some social distancing measures' can mean a very broad spectrum of things. Even if we hadn't spent much time thinking about it as a theoretical exercise, we now have the exit strategy of various countries to look at as a comparator.

What worries me is not that we'll be in lockdown forever - of course we won't, no government would do that - it's that the government has not got itself together enough to thrash out any detail on an exit strategy yet, let alone put the necessary infrastructure in place to carry out the one they'll eventually arrive on, and so we'll be stuck with levels of social distancing dragging on long beyond what other countries have managed to achieve.

I am resigned to being on my own for many months to come -= and fully expect that I will spend Christmas on my own. I lost my OH in February and being completely alone is new to me, and very challenging.

I need to hug my DDs, who are also grieving, but it will not happen for a very long time. There is nothing to be done.

Those of you who have people at home to share this situation with please treasure them.

I think many, many of us understand that 'social distancing measures' are not the same as full lockdown, and that 'some social distancing measures' can mean a very broad spectrum of things.

The point that the OP is making, echoed by many of us, is that further clarification on what that means, rather than leaving worry, despair and speculation to run riot, should have been provided today.

What absolutely amazes me is the lack of testing. In Russia, third world country, you can get tested for Covid or antibodies, and you only need £15 and 2 days. In Russia!!! While in such a progressive country as the UK testing for an average person is simply impossible.

@Mischance can you visit and speak over the garden fence? I've been doing this. Sometimes I go have a chat with my mum or make my gran a cup of tea and she stands in the street.

Metal health is just as important as physical health.

I'm used to seeing them every single day. I couldn't live as a single parent, trying to work and homeschool alone in a flat all day without any form of adult contact.

Lots of people I know do similar.

As I said before, when you accept the risks it makes things easier and sometimes the benefits outweigh those risks 🤷🏻‍♀️. Technically it is breaking the lockdown but the risks are so minimal I don't see how it matters.

I need to hug my DDs, who are also grieving, but it will not happen for a very long time. There is nothing to be done.

@Miscchance, what is stopping you from seeing your DDs in the privacy of your own home or theirs? If not now, then at some point before 'a very long time'? Perhaps you are vulnerable yourself, in which case that is different.

The point that the OP is making, echoed by many of us, is that further clarification on what that means, rather than leaving worry, despair and speculation to run riot, should have been provided today.

Yes, I am aware and agree with the OP. I am concerned that the reason the government didn't do this is because it doesn't have a clear idea itself, rather than the (bleaker but simultaneously reassuring) idea promoted by some that it knows full well and is just letting it out in dribs and drabs because the people can't handle the truth.