"Some" disruptive social distancing to be in place till the end of the year

[Frompcat]

Says Chris Witty. Nothing unexpected but I really wish they would say what they're talking about when they say shit like this. What does "some" mean? Schools? WFH? Family visits?

My partner lives 200 miles from me. I haven't seen him since February. I'm not prepared to wait another 18 fucking months before I do. I'm getting to the fuck it, I'm just gojng stage.

People need to see their families and, if they don't live together, their partners again. It has to be taken into consideration. And no, not every one had the option of living together for the lockdown due to work and other reasons.

This government is totally incompetent and frankly I don't trust chris Whitty or any of the others either. And yes, I'm a scientist. Fed up with it all.

Mischance I am so, so sorry for what's happened to you. I bloody well hope you will be able to see and hug your daughters soon. Covid 19 can't simply be allowed to take precedence over everything.

The point that the OP is making, echoed by many of us, is that further clarification on what that means, rather than leaving worry, despair and speculation to run riot, should have been provided today.

Yes, I am aware and agree with the OP. I am concerned that the reason the government didn't do this is because it doesn't have a clear idea itself, rather than the (bleaker but simultaneously reassuring) idea promoted by some that it knows full well and is just letting it out in dribs and drabs because the people can't handle the truth.

Then the right thing to do would be to own that fact. Rather than alluding to experts and science, but not actually sharing what they are saying, and citing avoidance of confusion as a reason not to go into possibilities, they should just apologise for not having a plan together yet and give an expectation of when one will be forthcoming.

That is what the rest of us are expected to do in our professional lives.

Personally, I think it's a fairly transparent, misguided attempt at manipulation based on the advice of behavioural psychologists and I for one don't appreciate it.

@Leighhalfpennysthigh, let me be the first to encourage you to just fucking go. Think up a story on the off chance you are stopped and go. Life is too short to be lived like this.

[This assumes you are not especially vulnerable, and have been adhering to social distancing up to now and he likewise]

@GoldenOmber

I think that the government is watching others, as well as trying to work through the modelling. Frankly, it is a huge exercise to cost all the trade offs financially and in terms of the risk of further spread.

Honestly, people want to hear that there is an exit strategy when really that is the wrong term.

Lockdown is not financially sustainable for the long term, so we need to bridge the gap between a vaccine (which may never come) with social distancing that can assist in sustaining our economy without causing "too much" infection and death.

The reality is that this is a vast moral choice requiring masses of trade offs - when they open schools, the unions will be very agitated about this as it will obviously increase risk to teachers as compared to sitting in their houses teaching online, or only coming in infrequently as part of a rota (not saying this is true in all schools, just an example) but then there is the financial cost to not opening schools for working parents and the intangible cost to pupils' futures, skills and then the human cost of the most vulnerable children, of mental health of children from being stuck indoors etc to weigh against that. The unions keep referring to only opening "based on science", but the science is pretty obvious - even if opening the schools creates negligee risk, it will still create SOME risk, and some people won't be happy about that, even when told that, in the government's view, it helps to avoid some other worse ills, some of which could be quantified in terms of money or death and many won't.

Science can help in terms of trying to understand the impact, but the trade offs are not just about science. I don't think that some of the British public are mature enough to accept this sadly (you only have to look at some of the schools threads on Mumsnet, everyone is out for themselves, everyone is an armchair expert and some people honestly seem to think that the state will just pay them to sit at home indefinitely until a vaccine arrives so they can avoid any level of risk at all) - and I definitely don't think the media are.

So the best thing for the government to do politically is to implement the most successful of the strategies put in place by other countries. So then it can say "see - it's not an immoral tory thing, it is what the Germans and Austrians are doing very successfully.

No I know you get it (& I agree with you) @Frompcat but while there are still people pushing the “lockdown longer & harder to make the virus go away” line then a weak, leaderless, disorganised & fucking crap government is going to be led by popular opinion. They have no plan, beyond maybe wait & see how soon people will start ignoring them.

Always makes me laugh on these covid type of threads when people say x,y,z will result in "civil disorder" - civil disorder in the UK is moaning on MN/Faceboook, and on-line abusing of today's hate figure (the CMO, teachers, Gove etc etc).

Ha, not negligee risk, relatively negligible risk!!

Fwiw when this started the point was raised that psychologically a lockdown was time limited as to how long the public would accept and they were worried about a stage after we'd peaked that support for it would wane and there would start to be a break down in compliance.

I'm certainly starting to see that where I am. We go for a daily walk at the same time and it's got busier with people gradually no longer observing it religiously.

This week sunbathing in the park and having a kick about has crept in. And when we didn't see a sole by the local shops, queues have started and people are stopping to chat to people they know.

There's definitely a different atmosphere.

I think that lockdown has to last until late May to be properly effective. I don't think we will get as far as that tbh. I think early to mid May will be the political cut off point.

But that risks a second wave lock down scenario. And I think that's really scary.

By definition, Russian Federation isn't third world.

The origin of the phrases was political:
1st world = rich capitalist countries, allied with USA mostly but you had oddballs like Finland & Austria that were simply unaligned

Second world = communist countries, opposing USA

3rd world = not politically allied with 1st or 2nd.

After fall of Berlin wall, 3rd world turned into 'developing' (ignoring Finland, Austria) and now the common parlance is to call this group of nations lower middle income or lower income. (LMICs & LICs)

Russia is an upper middle income country, World bank.

We won't have covid-19 civil disorder. We will have breakdown in compliance. And that's a risk to public safety in its own right.

They have no plan, beyond maybe wait & see how soon people will start ignoring them.

Ding ding ding, we have a winner 😂

Also to the person saying they've never met anyone against lockdown on real life, I wonder if this is a social class thing, or a location thing or something

@Sophism1 That was me and yes you could be right, I hadn't really thought about how my privilege affects how I view the situation.

Being a legal professional I have no choice but to extremely law abiding! My friends are in similar roles - Managing Directors, Academics, Senior Civil Servants, and I guess we have that protection that middle class brings. South East, as you raised region as a possible differential.

Having thought about it, I don't know a single person who has lost their job (other than via my professional work) because of the virus. Nobody at risk either so far.

I do agree with PP that Mental Health is an important issue here but again, mine has been much better since the restrictions started as I don't have my usual whirl of commuting and stressful meetings.

We will all have different views based on our own situations and that's one of the things that makes MN great. It gives us the opportunity to see another's position.

With regards to OPs original question though, I am a steadfast Socialist and I still don't think they could tell us much more about what the Social Distancing measures will be at any particular point in time. I do like the idea of the NZ system though of Levels that we move between and everyone knows what you can and can't do in each level. That sounds really sensible.

But that risks a second wave lock down scenario. And I think that's really scary.

Imo there will be a second wave no matter what we do.

We could lock down to this level until 2021 and there will be a second wave of the virus come January.

The only difference is that by the time the second wave comes, public opinion will have moved on to the acceptance stage, so there won't be a further lockdown because people won't adhere to it and the government won't be liable.

I would rather have the inevitable second wave in the summer, rather than flu season.

I suspect they don't have a bloody clue. They just spout bollocks everyday.

This. I’d rather just say this. All the relentless negativity is just gong to lead to people thinking “fuck it” and compliance will be more difficult

Sick of the whole fucking thing

If it wasn’t for my kids I’d have ended it by now. I don’t want to live like this.

@bluebeck that's really interesting! And it does make sense.

I'm in a working class area in Scotland. We don't seem to have been hit that hard yet. Most people I know have either been furloughed or already lost their jobs. Some are still working out of the house as normal with no means to social distance.

So yeah, most people I speak to have bigger worries than catching the virus. Even the ones on furlough doubt their jobs are going to be safe for long. And the ones working out of the house (some in government owned and run buildings!!) can't see what the fuss is about when they're still being made to go to work when they could work from home with a few adjustments.

And I agree that's what makes MN so interesting. I came to the conclusion that sometimes it's frankly impossible for people to agree on things, because their situations are just so different!

We won't have covid-19 civil disorder. We will have breakdown in compliance. And that's a risk to public safety in its own right

This. I have totally been sticking to the rules. But without any kind of glimmer of positivity it’s hard to wonder why I keep bothering.

So I see the Social distancing, whatever it is and however long it lasts, as an acceptable trade off.

Maybe a bit easier to bear if you don’t work in travel industry, restaurants, pubs etc so instead you’re just expected to see your means of esrnjnf money and some of your purpose in life go down the pan to “protect the NHS”.

Agreed @Cam77

To be clear I don’t want the current lockdown to end now, kids to go back to school, or to go back to “normal”. I know that’s not feasible. But we need a glimmer of light in the darkness.

Naive Chris. I'd like to see him make it stick.

People are definitely giving up - me and my neighbours are sunbathing/daydrinking in our communal garden (several metres apart, don't lynch me) and it's keeping me sane. Yesterday 2 police cars parked up in our road - I was shitting myself it was for us - turns out they were raiding some dodgy people's house for drugs. On the way back to the car, my neighbour waved to them and they were all laughy and jokey. Didn't make a single comment about why 7 of us were out rubbernecking.

I’m not giving up and I won’t I’m as compliant as I was at the start because I know it’s not just about me and assuming the risk I would be comfortable with but it’s hard going isn’t it

My local park also had about 5 sunbathers in and every bench was full. Last week the police were chasing people off the benches/grass, now there are no police about.