Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 6

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 6 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

I have heard otherwise from the ward but I realise that is just a few people, hence interested to find out more.

Cancer patients may have different criteria.

I am also interested in a decrease (if any) re stroke patients and why this would be. Are stroke deaths the same? Do they just not present to hospital

Marsha yes so am I when I click on them through this thread.

The first is online titled 'urgent-next-steps-on-nhs-response-to-covid-19-letter-simon-stevens'

and the other published 2nd April in The Lancet

if you want to have a look.

Thanks for this thread. It was depressing to see the numbers increase today, and it's really helpful that posters like Shoots, Barracker and BigChoc are able to explain the bigger picture so clearly.

Looking at the ft graphs, if we keep tracking Italy as closely as we have, this could be a long plateau.

Thanks Bflat I know these threads are not re what we’ve heard so I’m parking what I’ve heard for now. I’ll take a look.

Friend of mine, senior consultant at Central London hospital said everything (cancer screening etc) stopped to create capacity for covid, not because of risk. Had an actual plan been implemented earlier, at the point this could be seen on the horizon, ideally they could have ringfenced ongoing essential treatment but it was basically a mad panic to creat ICU capacity within hospitals.

Looking at the ft graphs, if we keep tracking Italy as closely as we have, this could be a long plateau.

I’ve wondered that too... Do we know how timely
Italy’s death reporting is? Could many of these deaths be weeks old possibly? Spain seems to be coming down at a faster rate, as does New York.

I found a better GIS tool

i.imgur.com/RZ51y7K.png

Interesting how Cornwall higher than Devon..

There's a local authority map here if you're struggling to work out all the names (the red bit above London is Milton Keynes)

geoportal.statistics.gov.uk/datasets/0ea0f36f4eba47d2948519bbac36ef9f

Yes, though the Lakes are much higher.

Cornwall is twice as bad as rural Devon (though still relatively not too bad). There's little in Plymouth, while only Exeter has a higher level than Cornwall in Devon.

Bigger link: i.imgur.com/rcdas0j.png

Here's the London region

i.imgur.com/8TWeIA5.png

I'm not sure I trust anything coming out of SAGE now we know Dominic Cummings sits on it.

The advise has been tainted by a political agenda probably only known to Cummings and Johnson.

Are there possibly more second home owners from hot spots such as London and Midlands with homes is Cornwall than Devon?

Italy does NOT have a high number of multi-generational families.
Do you speak Italian Mum? I can send you the census if you do?

The assumptions that people make here and elsewhere about other countries and Nationalities is shocking. Much of it just casual racism.

@MarshaBradyo l work in stroke rehab, my trust has been following the pattern of far fewer than normal admissions for stroke. Apologies, this is anecdotal - very heavy strokes are still being admitted via A&E, but we have had some patients who have presented late with symptoms, who would usually have gone to A&E but we're too worried about Covid and suspect there are more not coming in. A certain number of patients with stroke usually attend via GP - again, without GP appointments these may be being missed. The issue is, these stroke may be being missed, no preventative treatment given and patients are therefore at risk of further more severe strokes. Also many routine outpatient cardiac investigations are on hold at the moment, which again is a risk for the patients concerned.

Great graphs and maps. Thank you, Shoots and Barracker.

Posted this on another thread but posting here as well. This years flu deaths were low compared to normal. I wonder what the covid death stats would have looked like if the winter was really hard and a high amount of flu deaths.
I work in pensions, every winter we have a spike of pensioner deaths. This year it didn’t really happen.

I saw today a couple of maternity units moved clincs to football stadiums, seems they are trying to reduce fear of attending by moving away from a hospital setting. I thought that was very innovative.

Thanks for the graphs! A few pages back someone said something about a handful of deaths coming back from early March as covid after postmortem. Can someone link to those stats/report please?

@wonderstuff gosh that's a really sensible idea, providing necessary equipment can be moved.

@wonderstuff it's the kind of pragmatic idea they'd come up with on Call the Midwife!

One of the things I find very depressing about the current situation is the sheer volume of disinformation, manipulation and stupidity floating around. I don't know how I managed to protect myself against it beforehand, and I am not a regular on social media, but now it gets you everywhere! Even on a relatively safe thread like this one, you have either nutters or idiots or simply people paid to spout non-truths, stereotypes, bland common places or straight lies. It's intolerable. I always held to my belief that people are smart. Not that Brexit or recent election proved it....

Ah good, finally back to statistics

Barracker's volcano informative as ever

"nearly 10% of the reported deaths today being over 4 weeks late.
..... and many more were 1 / 2 / 3 weeks late

This must be of concern to the govt in their planning to exit lockdown:

With so little testing,
the government is quite reliant on these death totals to warn if exponential infection growth is starting

However, the death stats at any time would be very incomplete
and of course the care home deaths are also delayed

Hancock must organise a proper mass testing system asap, expense no object

The proposed App could help to some extent, but requires a lot of public cooperation
and also IT projects under all govts have not gone well

Many thanks for the new contour plot, shoots
They are excellent and give a very clear picture of the distribution in the country