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Worried About Coronavirus- thread 38

991 replies

TheStarryNight · 18/04/2020 13:57

New thread

OP posts:
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buttermilkwaffles · 23/04/2020 15:40

The media often sets economists against epidemiologists, but the consensus view is that ‘what is necessary from a medical standpoint is also economically desirable’ longer term.
mobile.twitter.com/leyla_beck/status/1253308534789419008

buttermilkwaffles · 23/04/2020 15:47

FT (paywall)
"Academic economists on both sides of the Atlantic are virtually unanimous in their support of lockdown measures taken."
www.ft.com/content/e593e7d4-b82a-4bf9-8497-426eee43bcbc

CrunchyCarrot · 23/04/2020 16:02

Deaths and anxiety aside, this virus is really interesting in how it behaves. It's very worrying re strokes, especially as they need extremely prompt treatment.

buttermilkwaffles · 23/04/2020 17:14

@NYGovCuomo
NEW: The first phase of results from a statewide antibody study are in.

We collected approximately 3,000 antibody samples from 40 locations in 19 counties.

Preliminary estimates show a 13.9% infection rate.

Percent positive by region:

Long Island: 16.7%
NYC: 21.2%
Westchester/Rockland: 11.7%
Rest of state: 3.6%

(Weighted results)

Percent positive by demographic:

Female: 12%
Male: 15.9%

Asian: 11.7%
Black: 22.1%
Latino/Hispanic: 22.5%
Multi/None/Other: 22.8%
White: 9.1%

mobile.twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1253352837255438338

Keepdistance · 23/04/2020 17:17

I looked at clotting and it seems that heart attack etc risk is higher even with younger people for a few days after flu.
Think it said inflammation caused the clotting.
Thing is all the nhs stay at home rather than hospital we wont be learning these things here we wont get early anti clotting treatment.

Would the clots be all the overwhelmed white blood cells?

It looks like we will be in the middle
Aus/NZ
Eu
Uk
Sweden

We will end up losing millions in tourism as noone will let us in or want to come here.
Im still suspicious as to why they dont want people havinng antibody tests. Also because if they are trialling a vax i assume they need to check participants for abtibodies first.
Surely once it is shown no side effects and they dont catch it then they need to directly expose people to be certain.

Cheltenham lies will definitely be one of the things in an inquiry. As surely they already knew about the S korea superspreader at the church.
Do you think the residents were infected going to the event? Or all their supermarkets/shops etc infected?
As really it's damning evidence that we cant have summer holidays.
Tbh i expect it's worse with the football area though.
If the peak is that obvious at cheltenham how many others across uk and Ireland did it kill. ?!
We're close in Bristol and flights may have come in here or Cardiff etc. Then trains/coaches.

I think they should be having to log and ask patients if thy went to any of these events as they arent tracing cases.
My uncle apparently said several from their village caught it at cheltenham - there in hereford.

I cant see why anyone would trust anything the gov say.
Which is probably more why other countries wont let us in. Our case numbers being completely wrong and thousands more deaths than listed and lying to the people they represent that masks dont work.

Keepdistance · 23/04/2020 17:21

Thats good news re new york. About a quarter of the way to 'herd immunity' if that is say 60%

MarshaBradyo · 23/04/2020 17:23

"Academic economists on both sides of the Atlantic are virtually unanimous in their support of lockdown measures taken."

Butter interesting. I didn’t read it but I do hope that the government heeds economic and epidemiological guidance over SM and other noise.

wintertravel1980 · 23/04/2020 17:45

Thanks, @buttermilkwaffles, this is very interesting.

If the level of population with antibodies is 20%+ in NYC, it should already be a material factor in driving down the transmission rate (R0).

buttermilkwaffles · 23/04/2020 17:50

Also, FT.

"A potential antiviral drug for the coronavirus has flopped in its first randomised clinical trial, disappointing scientists and investors who had high hopes for remdesivir, according to draft documents published accidentally by the World Health Organization and seen by the Financial Times."

ToffeeYoghurt · 23/04/2020 20:09

That's a shame about remdesivir. It was showing so much promise until now. I wonder was it the trial where it's given at a late stage? I think at least one trial was doing that. All the evidence suggested the drugs trialled help best at earlier stages.

Jrobhatch29 · 23/04/2020 21:26

Was the new york antibody sample grocery store workers? Im sure i read that somewhere. I also wonder if it would be higher if they included and tested children.

Keepdistance · 23/04/2020 22:08

I dont know but they need to test kids as they think the kids might not develop immunity

Laniakea · 23/04/2020 23:05

It was customers not staff who were tested:

“ A total of 3,000 customers at supermarkets across the state of New York were randomly tested for coronavirus antibodies this week, Governor Andrew Cuomo said Thursday.”

TheStarryNight · 23/04/2020 23:14

@pocketem

Just been reading about the potential for nicotine as a treatment (based on smokers being less likely to contract the coronavirus).

I looked into the protective effects of nicotine on ulcerative colitis a while back. Basically it inhibits the production of pro-inflammatory cytokines.

The way you’re describing older Covid patients it sounds like there is some involvement of the vagus/parasympathetic nervous system (test and digest).

This all rang bells for me as nicotine, acetylcholine and vagus nerve stimulation all activate the same anyti-inflammatory pathway.

I’m struggling to express myself well as I’m very much just a lay person with an interest in how the vagal system and immune system interact.

But given the role of the vagus in other conditions like hypertension which affect coronavirus severity, this is really making me wonder how the virus affects the nervous system.

OP posts:
ToffeeYoghurt · 23/04/2020 23:58

I find it really interesting TheStarryNight I remember reading something early on about smoking. A small study noticed smokers seemed to be at lower risk than ex-smokers. It makes sense if nicotine has a protective effect. Ex-smokers would have all the negatives of smoking but none of the positives. Damaged lungs but none of the protection nicotine might offer. A friend gave up smoking by using nicotine sweets and chewing gum. Presumably those couldnd help as an alternative to patches? Perhaps in the future we'll all be buying nicotine supplements like we do with vitamins!

HeIenaDove · 24/04/2020 00:14

DH stopped smoking at the end of March 2006 On the day of his heart attack.

ToffeeYoghurt · 24/04/2020 00:28

Helena He's definitely better off having given up. Even if it turns out nicotine has some protective effect it, it would be taken in a safer form like patches or pills. I think the lungs do start recovering once someone's stopped. Perhaps never as healthy as someone who's never smoked but it's something.

HeIenaDove · 24/04/2020 00:54

YY Toffee He still misses it though No way im telling him whats on here in case he comes back with cigarettes

RedToothBrush · 24/04/2020 00:54

Reuters @reuters
'At one point I was so exhausted … I was saying, if I had no children or partner then it would be easier just to be left in peace,' COVID-patient Andre Bergmann on his fight to beat the virus without a ventilator 1/8

^More important, many doctors say, is that the additional machines will need highly trained and experienced operators.

"It's not just about running out of ventilators, it's running out of expertise," said David Hill, a pulmonology and critical care physician in Waterbury, Connecticut, who attends at Waterbury Hospital.

Long-term ventilation management is complex, but Hill said some U.S. hospitals were trying to bring non-critical care physicians up to speed fast with webinars or even tip sheets. "That is a recipe for bad outcomes."^

.@Reuters spoke to 30 medics worldwide who have experience of dealing with COVID-19 patients. They agreed ventilators are vital and have helped save lives. But many also highlighted the risks from using the most invasive types. 3/8

Many forms of ventilation use masks to help get oxygen into patients. Doctors are concerned about putting tubes into patients’ airways to pump air in, which can damage the lungs. 4/8

In Wuhan, China, where the novel coronavirus emerged, doctors said they initially intubated patients to help them breathe, but 'the disease had changed their lungs beyond our imagination.' 5/8

Putting COVID-19 sufferers on ventilators as if they were standard patients with breathing problems is 'like using a Ferrari to go to the shop next door, you press on the accelerator and you smash the window,' a ventilator expert told @Reuters. 6/8

COVID-19 is teaching doctors how to handle coronavirus #happyhypoxics - people who can talk and laugh with no signs of mental cloudiness even though their oxygen might be critically low. 7/8

Read the full @SpecialReports: As virus advances, doctors rethink rush to ventilate t.co/22y5HmcboI by @tomescritt @silviaaloisi @gabriellaborter @kkelland @journotopia & Deena Beasley 8/8

mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN2251PE?__twitter_impression=true
Special Report: As virus advances, doctors rethink rush to ventilate

In China, 86% of 22 COVID-19 patients didn't survive invasive ventilation at an intensive care unit in Wuhan, the city where the pandemic began, according to a study published in The Lancet in February. Normally, the paper said, patients with severe breathing problems have a 50% chance of survival. A recent British study found two-thirds of COVID-19 patients put on mechanical ventilators ended up dying anyway, and a New York study found 88% of 320 mechanically ventilated COVID-19 patients had died.

And

In a paper published by the American Thoracic Society on March 30, Gattinoni and other Italian doctors wrote that COVID-19 does not lead to "typical" respiratory problems. Patients' lungs were working better than they would expect for ARDS, they wrote - they were more elastic. So, he said, mechanical ventilation should be given "with a lower pressure than the one we are used to."

Dh has made the point that in forcing technology change whilst we might see a lot of deaths now, development of non invasive systems to ventilate patients could help to save lives (for all causes) in the future.

EmeraldShamrock · 24/04/2020 01:13

My dear Mammy lost her battle against coronavirus today, they removed the CPap she is getting palliative care oxygen and morphine, waiting is horrible. She didn't even make it to ICU as she is 69 with underlying health issues.

HeIenaDove · 24/04/2020 01:42

Im sorry to hear that Emerald. Thanks Thanks

EmeraldShamrock · 24/04/2020 01:43

@HeIenaDove Thank you. Sad

Rosebz · 24/04/2020 01:57

Emerald
I am so sorry to hear that. I wish you and your mammy the best and most peaceful of times over the next few days. The same happened with me and my mum in January (but not CV as far as we know). I had the absolute fortune of being with her because all of this hadn't hit yet. I'm no scientist but I am so grateful that for that morphine. Good luck hun xxx

Inkpaperstars · 24/04/2020 02:16

@EmeraldShamrock. I'm so sorry Flowers, thinking of you and your mum xx

EmeraldShamrock · 24/04/2020 02:21

@Rosebz Thank you. Me too. I hope the morphine works quick for DM. It is physically painful she is alone.
I'm sorry about your DM too.
@Inkpaperstars Thank you. Flowers

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