Worried About Coronavirus- thread 38

[TheStarryNight]

New thread

Useful explanation here of how the FT make that estimate : mobile.twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1252841436317315072

Bamboozled it’s a PR exercise.

Tbh i have no sympathy with thos e worried about lockdown. Honestly cant give too much of a crap about those people who are keen too hurry people back to work for 500k to die.

Our country has been so mismanaged would quite like to move.
Actually feeling quite depressed that we cant trust them.
But if people want to then they should campaign for them (presumably young) to socialise while those who are worried about catching it stay at home. Then you can do that for 3-4w and have made your own (rather stupid people peak).

There could be a vax by sept

I can’t get on with threads where people muck around joking they are ‘murderers’. Hope this doesn’t turn into one. I don’t understand people who ask for no slowing at all.

On the plus side just listening to low pollution in Delhi atm.

On R4 atm I mean

It might be that those with CVD, diabetes etc are added to the shielded list. My GP said that their guidance is changing frequently.

I am a bit worried that a lot of people (including government officials) seem to take Neil Ferguson's modelling as ultimate truth. He is highly respected in his field but it is not clear if there is anyone in SAGE who can challenge his perspective and offer an alternative informed view.

All Imperial estimates are based on a wide range of assumptions that can and should be peer reviewed. I keep repeating that if UK deaths did indeed peak before the impact of lockdown could have impacted the trend (April 8), we may be able to manage by maintaining targeted social distancing measures (e.g. WFH for most of the population) without the full lockdown. Neil Ferguson's research does not explain the early peak phenomenon.

Tbh i have no sympathy with thos e worried about lockdown. Honestly cant give too much of a crap about those people who are keen too hurry people back to work for 500k to die.

Do you have any sympathy with those of us concerned about deaths resulting from lockdown that aren't covid related? Such as the abused women and children I work with who are now locked in with their abusers?

The DV services aren't there. We don't have the funding, the resources or the staff for the huge increase we've seen. We didn't even before all this. If a woman is referred to me because she is concerned her husband will murder her and her children, I cannot guarantee I can get her to safety. It keeps me up at night.

Or are only covid 19 deaths worth noting at the moment?

BTW I don't disagree with lockdown in its current form, and I wouldn't complain about another 3 weeks after this. But longer than this, for the forseeable future? No.

I think all of us want an end to lockdown. Just not at any cost. It's far better to stay on this lockdown longer than end up with a very bad second wave. Aside from the countless needless deaths, the disruption and damage to the economy would be far worse than anything we have now. We need to buy time. Vaccines and drugs are being worked on. One vaccine might start to be available (, obviously on a very limited basis at first) by September. Drug trials are going well but we need to wait for more to be produced. We need increased testing, get enough PPE for frontline staff, ensure we have enough hospital capacity (and staff) whether for Covid or non Covid work. Get hold of enough masks for the public. This is what countries that have started a limited easing of lockdown are doing. We could also consider a regional easing. Start off in places with lower number of cases. I don't know if that would work but it seems popular with some posters. It might make sense.

Bercows I'd love to think that would happen. I suspect it won't for the same reason thru weren't on the list in the first place. Too many essential workers have one or more of those conditions. They're so common in the UK. It must be awful for those on the frontline at higher risk. We really shouldn't even think about easing lockdown until frontline workers have sufficient PPE guaranteed, and not just healthcare. Transport workers, shop staff, care homes, police, fire, delivery people and all others.

This is linked on the twitter threat buttermilkwaffles gave above. It's a short piece that was on Sky News last night. I thought it gave a nice concise explanation of the undercounting going on.

Abuse victims are as at risk from Covid as anyone else. Some more so. I don't want to see a return to pre lockdown DV services. Underfunded, postcode lottery, two women a week murdered. During (and after) lockdown we could and should put victims up in empty holiday homes, airbnbs, hotels. And provide sufficient funding for online support for those unable to easily make phone calls. Some of the volunteers who signed up to deliver food and medication to the vulnerable would, presumably, be happy to help transport women and children to a place of safety. Something useful with or without a pandemic. Certainly there's no need to use their dreadful situations as a reason to end lockdown.

It's very good to see a raised awareness and concern about domestic abuse actually. Maybe that's one positive to come out of this? Maybe we won't return to pre pandemic times of 60% of refuge referrals turned down because of lack of space and funding. It's in the headlines now. We have a chance to use a bad situation for something good.

During (and after) lockdown we could and should put victims up in empty holiday homes, airbnbs, hotels. And provide sufficient funding for online support for those unable to easily make phone calls.

Yes that would be lovely, but we aren't

Govt literally could not give 2 shits about abuse victims now, they are collateral damage. The general public is only interested in covid deaths.

If you're going to say "abuse victims are as much at risk from covid as anyone else" - well yes they are, but the majority of my service users are young healthy and low risk. So actually there is more danger to them from the abuse and lack of support than from covid.

How is it saving lives when thousands of ICU beds are empty while people die outside hospitals and can't even get admitted to hospital until they're turning blue?

I don't know if thousands of ICU beds are empty but yes, the admissions do seem to be mismanaged atm. I was disappointed the issue of earlier intervention wasn't mentioned at the conference today.

Long-term abuse is linked to poor physical health. Which increases the risks from Covid. Perhaps less relevant to the young victims you work with.

I agree. They could be doing so much more to help abuse victims - and they're not. And it's not because of lockdown. The suggestions I made (partly inspired by reading what other countries were doing) could be done during lockdown. The problem is, as you say, they don't give enough of a shit. It's hardly something to aspire to, to return to pre-Covid times of two women a week being murdered and many refuges having to turn people away due to lack of space. I really hope the increased focus on abuse is a silver lining. A chance to push for increased funding. I'm sure that's over optimistic on my part but there's no harm having hope.

I hope you don't mind me asking. I noticed a fair few recent DV murders were older ladies. Are services more focused on younger victims or is it just your particular service that specialises in young victims? I'm thinking it might sometimes be harder for older women to ask for help? Especially if services aren't there for them.

Are services more focused on younger victims or is it just your particular service that specialises in young victims?

My particular service is focused on a certain group which is exclusively young women. I have previously worked for services dealing solely with women in the 50+ age bracket however.

There’s a lot in UK that makes it harder here compared with a more egalitarian country. There are also some good things that we do well at (science). But there a huge amount of pressures from many angles atm.

The two campaigns I’ve seen are on DV and go to hospital if you need to. DV is hard if funding is not there.

I agree with a pp who suspects there are very possibly people lying dead behind closed doors. The number of these could well be exacerbated by barriers to getting food.

Nightingale London still has only 27 patients

Nightingale Harrogate is empty one day after opening, and with the local ICUs having almost a quarter of beds vacant it won't be filled any time soon

Nightingale Birmingham has no patients. I saw something yesterday evening (but can't remember where) that said there's no plans to admit patients to Harrogate yet.

The last figure I definitely remember for empty beds was 2,400 but I have a niggly feeling that Matt Hancock has mentioned 2,900 in the last couple of days.

Are there services for middle aged women? I wonder if they're the forgotten group? I've seen young people's services and things for seniors. Thank you for what you do btw.

Seems like the two campaigns have something in common. All words and no substance. Urge people to go to hospital. But there's not enough nurses. Tell people to get help if they're in an abuse situation. But there's not enough refuge spaces.

It's a disgrace they're opening all these makeshift hospitals when it seems for some reason, lack of staff and/or anything else people are dying at home. All the people turned away from hospital at stages of Covid when there's more chance of survival with treatment, care home residents not getting proper medical help. Something's gone badly wrong. All the more reason to postpone ending lockdown. We clearly can't cope as it is. Heaven help us if we had a second wave.

Toffee I thought A&E did have capacity? CV19 triage is awful but if you have say a stroke you should go to hospital and you will find you get the care. What do you think?

Btw I agree on staying home too long for CV19, a disgrace which I hope is looked into and changed.

It's almost as though this first wave is only a practice run. We'll all be let loose June, July and August and then the Nightingales will get put in action. The recruitment campaign for the NHS is in full swing now.