Worried About Coronavirus- thread 38

[TheStarryNight]

New thread

Red Your post about carers and Bondcare..........Outrageous.

Ezira but what do you expect people needing emergency care for C19 symptoms to do?
What do you expect people needing emergency care for non-C19 symptoms to do? If a C19 patients turns up at A&E they have to clear everyone else out and deep clean it. People need to be confident they can access emergency treatment without being exposed to C19 patients otherwise they end up sitting at home with bleeding wounds and broken bones etc.

Smilethoyourheartisbreaking
My brother and his family live in Bristol and I also have aunts and uncles and cousins in Bristol.

One of the reasons it may have less infection is that the public transport is fucking terrible .
You would never use it if you had even a small choice 😂
People will drive ride a bike or walk rather than rely on the awful crap expensive buses.
We also don’t have a tram or a metro like other big city’s. Plus Bristol is quite spread out . Nothing important is close to each other . Train station isn’t anywhere near the bus station

This is also similar I think the further into the West Country you go
Rubbish public transport so a lot of people drive

Only thing I do find strange is that they had Greta whats her name in Bristol in March with over 20k people all rammed in College Green .
So you would assume just from that Bristol should have higher numbers.
But maybe because it was mainly a younger crowd they may have covid 19 it but not been massively affected

Also my brother told me that a lot of places in Bristol started to shut around the 15th March . Do a week before the official lockdown
Many were finding they had very little trade because of the reports about the virus
I know he was moaning because his barber shut that week and he said a few others were as well.😂
My aunt was also moaning that her local pub and the social club had shut and so had her beauticians that week .

if a C19 patients turns up at A&E they have to clear everyone else out and deep clean it No they don't deep clean it, I think it is up to the ambulance driver where he takes the patient. My DM was readmitted in the depths of the virus, I watched them wheel her trolley in, que for a isolated room. I waited there for 2 hours there was no scrubbing happening in the area she crossed.
Then many people don't know they're infected and bring it.
If you need to go to a&e take the necessary precautions cover your eyes nose and mouth, bring anti viral gel a spare coat and sit still.

Strange research MollyButton

ezira I understand your point, but realistically if I or a member of my family is unable to breathe and I cannot get help from the triage system of 111/999, I will not be letting them simply sit at home and potentially die. I suspect your view would also change if it was you or your family in this situation and you couldn’t get an ambulance.

A&E is for emergencies. Inability to breathe is an emergency, and if all other avenues of help fail, it is perfectly reasonable for people to take themselves there.

As PP have said on other threads, most (if not all) emergency departments have separate entrances / facilities for suspected covid patients anyway.

Ft front page, and zoomed in bit on the article on page 3 in which they think that although the official death toll is 17,000 they think the real death toll is more than double that and closer to 41,000 based on their analysis.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/nurse-shortage-causes-nightingale-hospital-to-turn-away-patients

Nurse shortage causes Nightingale hospital to turn away patients
Exclusive: Covid-19 patient transfers to new London facility cancelled owing to lack of ICU nurses

Dozens of patients with Covid-19 have been turned away from the NHS Nightingale hospital in London because it has too few nurses to treat them, the Guardian can reveal.

The disclosure comes amid a growing belief among hospital management in the capital that the Nightingale, built to great acclaim over just nine days, was becoming a “white elephant”.

The hospital has been unable to admit about 50 people with the disease and needing “life or death” care since its first patient arrived at the site, in the ExCeL exhibition centre, in London’s Docklands, on 7 April. Thirty of these people were rejected because of a lack of staff.

Apparently they have enough doctors. But there is a shortage of critical care nurses as they are all already working in hospitals around the capital.

Do they explain why the believe that Red? Horrifying! But worryingly believable!

Dakota I have not been able to read the article myself yet.

I know when I did my figures last week based on the excess mortality, it was running at just over double the official hospital numbers. (those figures normally released on a Wednesday but I think they may have rolled them into the covid-19 figures going forward now).

So the FT estimate this week would be very consistent with what I saw last week.

But I'd be interested in the FTs methodology myself too.

Below Chile...

... Best health service in the world?!!

if a C19 patients turns up at A&E they have to clear everyone else out and deep clean it

Here they have separate sections for covid and non-covid A&E patients. I imagine that’s pretty standard.

Exclusive: NHS using ‘flawed’ COVID-19 test – missing 25% of positives

www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/exclusive-nhs-using-flawed-covid-19-test-missing-25-of-positives/

The Telegraph is running this story too, without the 25% number.

@Egghead68 That's what the do in the A&E I was sent to 3 weeks ago for a chest X-ray. I didn't see any non COVID patients.

amp.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab?__twitter_impression=true
Coronavirus pandemic death toll in UK twice as high as official figure | Free to read
FT estimate has been updated to reflect latest mortality trends

The estimate is more than double the official figure of 17,337 released by ministers on Tuesday, which is updated daily and only counts those who have died in hospitals after testing positive for the virus.

The FT extrapolation, based on figures from the ONS that were also published on Tuesday, includes deaths that occurred outside hospitals updated to reflect recent mortality trends.

The analysis also supports emerging evidence that the peak of deaths in the UK occurred on April 8 with the mortality rate gradually trending lower since, despite the 823 hospital deaths announced on Tuesday, which were sharply up on the 449 in the previous 24 hours.

And

Excess deaths from all causes stand 16,952 above the seasonal average across the UK since fatalities from Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, began to mount in mid-March.

The “all cause excess mortality” figure is widely recognised as the best measure of the death toll linked to the pandemic.

And

Prof Spiegelhalter said that coronavirus was not given as the cause on many of the death certificates but was likely to be a direct or indirect factor. He said many doctors would initially have been reluctant to designate the virus as the cause on death certificates as it was a new disease and they could not have been certain.

Some of those who died from other causes may have been too scared to attend hospital or did not want to be a burden on the health service so they could be seen as possible indirect victims of the virus, he argued. But he added, the sheer number of deaths caused by the virus meant, “there is no suggestion that the collateral damage — however large it is — is anything like as big as the harm from Covid”.

The ONS said on Tuesday it had asked Public Health England to investigate why care home deaths were rising so sharply.

And

As 24 per cent of deaths normally occur in care homes in the UK, the analysis suggests that just under 11,000 more people than normal have died in residential care since the start of the outbreak.

And

The ONS data also showed that the vast majority of all excess deaths were people aged over 75 years old. This age bracket accounted for 70 per cent of the total, the same proportion as those with Covid-19 on their death certificates.

If we have 25% flawed tests and a large number of otherwise unexplained deaths....

In order to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 virus in the Netherlands the Dutch government has decided to implement additional measures for passengers flying to the Netherlands by means of a health declaration form and self-quarantine. These measures are implemented based on the Dutch Public health law and will be applicable for all flights arriving in the Netherlands from an airport located in affected areas with high risk of COVID-19 transmission.

that means most of europe including UK.

@RedToothBrush
Thank you for the link, the graph showing there are almost as many people dying at home and in care homes is very scary. I agree with a previous poster in that if my family were struggling to breathe at home I would take them to a and e.

Taken in combination the testing story, the excess death story and the nightingale story should set off alarm bells.

If we peaked on 8th April at the levels we did, we were much more advanced in where we were in the outbreak than previously thought. That means it was much more widespread than PHE thought. Of course if that prediction was modelled off faulty testing...

70% if excess deaths being in over 70s will lead to calls to open things earlier too.

But with only faulty testing in places that leaves us even more vulnerable to a second wave. A wave we will not detect until later than we should. That should scare you. Especially if PHE start to play it down and there's no change in testing.

And with everything pointing to the fact that milder cases really should be under observation much earlier, the state of the nightingale situation does not bode well.

How are the nightingales going to be staffed is a question that has been answered. We don't have the extra capacity that has been suggested.

This bodes particularly badly for more deprived areas, with a lower level of overall health and access to healthcare. They will be disproportionately hit for the other 30% of excess deaths in the under 70s.

It's good to see the ONS saying there should be an investigation into deaths in care homes. It backs up everyone who has noticed the completely obvious car crash of a policy for care homes. It's a national scandal.

All of this relates back to slow response from government in procurement and logistics planning in capacity and capability, particularly relating to PPE and testing.

All in all, its not a great look for government.

Thanks for the FT info. I find the ONS stats so shocking and yet I see on other threads some still minimising the whole situation.

Thanks for the NL travel update. I'm sure most countries will follow in time.

Piers just decimated the Care Minister on GMB with the FT figures.

Also for the talk of 'other social distancing measures worked before lockdown hence why we peaked on 8th April' the counter argument is starring us in the face.

People survive 3 weeks with medical attention. If people are dying in large numbers at home, there is a big suggestion that people are struggling to get access to medical attention...

... And therefore survival times could less than elsewhere in the world.

Yes there was an 8th April professor on R4 this morning. Infection peaked around time schools closed according to him.

The data is so full of holes I feel like we are being fudged into the next stage.