Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Also just catching up, thank you all. What on earth is happening in Belgium? Their deaths/1M seems to have shot up.

Scotland 80
England 740
Wales 32
NI. 18
Figures just announced on sky for today. 870.

That's very interesting about SKorea, new a country that seems to have succeeded in squashing COVID at an early stage
^
The massive election victory as a reward for this achievement^
A govt in another country that gets this badly wrong^ could be punished instead - if they can't call an election before the voters realise this^
^
Q:
Is S Korea allowing in more flights now - and if so, with mandatory health checks and isolation periods ?

Are there any estimates for what % of the population is immune ?
WIth so few cases, it must be very few - are there fears of^ a 2nd wave ?

Undoubtedly sad but not as bad as the 8th, just over a week ago.

@hopefulhalf, not clear. I updated my spreadsheet here

gofile.io/?c=ZyGfTO

Today is the highest EVER first-day deaths total.

My inclination is that this could be just due to improved death reporting efficiency, etc, because there's nothing untoward in the figures for the 14th, which are about 20% below the 8th, which seems to have been the peak.

But we obviously can't pronounce too much from 1 day's figures. If tomorrow's report comes back with 350+ deaths for the DoD 15th, then that would be extremely terribly bad.

Belgium

The sudden sharp rise in deaths may be a correction to the figures over Easter, when some may not have been collated
This effect is why we have been so cautious about the lower UK figures over Easter

Note:
Belgium is one of the few countries to include COVID deaths in care homes^

• which can add 50% on to the death total in hospital

They even include deaths without a test, but where the symptoms indicate COVID

So, we can expect Belgium to generally have a higher death rate than countries which do none of the above

Well done Belgium for their honesty.

Larry There is evidence for all 3 factors having some effect,
including Vitamin D levels - which have been proven to affect the immune system

Actually, it is a bit of an improving trend. Starting to feel a bit more hopeful that "our version" of lock down is actually effective.

So fewer deaths reported but more happened yesterday ?

"Is S Korea allowing in more flights now - and if so, with mandatory health checks and isolation periods ?"

There have always been flights coming in, not sure how the numbers have changed. Everyone is subject to a 2 week quarantine period at a cost of about $1000US if you don't have a permanent address. Otherwise you just quarantine at home. They put an app on your phone to track your movements and check you're not going out.

"Are there any estimates for what % of the population is immune ?
WIth so few cases, it must be very few - are there fears of^ a 2nd wave ?"

No idea about immunity.

Fears of a second wave - some people are very blase. Some are still in panic mode. Korea is a very group based culture so when people see others are going out, they tend to do the same rather than listen to government advice, which is a worry. I would say the government have greater control than in the UK, perhaps so if it does come to lockdown situation, I think it would be pretty strict.

Much better medical facilities though which has helped a lot.

Thank you to contributors on this thread, I constantly lurk and find it very informative.

The mention of the guardian article unthread about the leaked minutes from London A&E about increase in cardiac arrests at home reminds me of the article of a diary of a New York oaradedic that was in the bbc site recently. He said he spent all day every day on calls that were nearly all cardiac arrest caused by Covid where the body organs shut down as the person couldn’t get enough oxygen, which led to cardiac arrest and death. The same, it seems, is happening here. Yet apparently we have spare hospital beds and the nhs aren’t at capacity. How can this be when we allow people to get to such a point that they die at home?

Just noticed China is now missing from the worldometer list as of today... 🤷‍♀️ is it just me?

How can this be when we allow people to get to such a point that they die at home?

Because we have told people not to go to hospital unless they can't breathe.

Such a strong criteria is bound to result in people who are suffering from non-covid things being slower to go to hospital as well as people who are suffering from Covid but have "non typical" symptoms.

is it just me?

We disappeared from there at one point - but only briefly.

That said- - China's details are showing for me.

There you all are!

Off to read the first 5 pages...

Shootsfruit sorry if hard of thinking** but could you please explain your comment 20 mins ago please? I've looked at your data sheet and none the wiser

Ignore me.. they are back in the list. Bizarrely +46 new being the same as yesterday. I'm watching those figures because their lockdown restrictions have changed. It's creeping up but ever so slowly thank goodness!

Reastie Many people - including MNers - have been told not to call until they can only say a few words

• so if they misjudge, 111 or 999 are busy, then it's Goodnight Vienna

Sometimes too, sufferers think they are managing OK, but deterioration escalates very quickly

That's why in Germany people are whipped into hospital with comparatively mild breathing problems,
or problems the patient didn't realise, but were picked up by the health teams testing O2, BP, heart

The "better safe than sorry" principle

Because we have told people not to go to hospital unless they can't breathe

I've seen this quoted a lot on various threads, first hand accounts of people not being taken into hospital, but also seen many, many interviews on TV to come straight in and not delay, also for any other condition not just Covid. Mixed messages once again. I wonder if this is area specific ie: particularly bad in London, but then it shouldn't be, because they still have sufficient capacity, or just bad handling by some paramedics/NHS 111.

Apparently we already "peaked" on 8th April says NHS England. How much faith do you have in this assertion.

are today's death figures something to be hopeful about? Granted, it's sill nearly 900 people and families with the worst outcome.

But every day this week, people have been 'dreading' tomorrow's figures as there will be a big jump due to a lag. But does this mean we have reached a plateau?

Today’s numbers tweet

Hopefully

A bit less horrible than I expected.