Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Placemarking as I keep losing the thread and a big thank you for all the information and analysis here

I think you're right Nauticant. Similar to a war effort. Without a tangible human enemy physically attacking us people feel less able to adjust their mindset. It's exceptionally hard to do though.

Any statement like that will have the tories shot down for being heartless.

I am hopeful that the medical treatment will improve - there are many trials going on and experience leads to knowledge for medical staff and the general public.

Perhaps what we're experiencing is the Phony War phase during which people's expectations need to adjust to a new reality NeurotrashWarrior.

I do think that had the government simply gone for a "save the economy" approach, even moderate, without us going through what's happening at the moment would have led to a belief that the government had simply let people die. In some way, we have to go through a process where that belief doesn't become the mainstream belief.

They also needed time but yes to alter our behaviour because even after lock down we won’t want everyone to get it at once. Whether that is due to some restrictions or our modified SD behaviour.

Placemark

Thank you for the sensible discussion and insight on this thread.

Yes I agree; they talked about behavioural scientists advising. I don't doubt so much of all of this, including certain media coverage, has been behaviourally managed.

There's someone talking about behavioural science at the moment on world at one R4.

Actually it's worth a listen; some sort of traffic light system. Small shops open. Schools are given opportunity to open but at their discretion. Each phase lasting 3 weeks.

Midgebabe- I have an interest in asthma too (2 ds and a dh with it) and would dearly love to see some analysis around the true risks associated with asthma as separate to other chronic respiratory diseases. I found this in the ONS report:

Chronic lower respiratory diseases” groups together asthma and COPD with other lower respiratory diseases. There were 20 deaths involving COVID-19 with a main pre-existing condition of asthma in males aged 0 to 69 years (4% of deaths involving COVID-19 for that group), 41 in males aged 70 years and over (2% of deaths involving COVID-19 for that group), 24 in females aged 0 to 69 years (8% of deaths involving COVID-19 for that group) and 38 in females aged 70 years and over (3% of deaths involving COVID-19 for that group).

Countries locked down because they needed the extra time to:

build up their health services and public health systems, their testing and tracking process, even storing & disposal of the extra dead bodies

• also for scientists to find out more about COVID; how to avoid it, how to treat it etc

Now, countries will need to gradually exit lockdown to save their economies from further damage,
Timing & measures will be dependent on:

death rate after peak, health service capacity, testing & tracing capacity etc

• and also what their govt and public deem an "acceptable" level of extra deaths & serious illness.

Possibly some countries will need to cycle in and out of lockdown, whereas others will just accept the death toll

Thanks Midge. I've also wondered if there's a difference between different "types" of asthma. Eg I have non allergic asthma. But I couldn't untangle or find much. It's different immune responses is as much as I know.

Thanks Neurotrash listening now re behaviours.

Sorry, to cloud.

Big choc

Yes WA1 is discussing how the infrastructure for effective social distancing needs to be in place. Eg enough hand sanitizer as well as our habitual behaviours changing effectively and long term.

I've had time to interpret the latitude graph here.
The red line is the number of world deaths occurring at a specific latitude on 22nd March (it would be interesting to see an updated plot).

The blue bar chart shows the total population at that latitude.

The significance of this is as follows (I think):

If covid 19 affects all people in the same way no matter where they live, on average, the number of deaths would have the the same peak latitude as the population peak latitude- but it does not.

You can see clearly that the death peak is at approx 40 degrees north whilst the population peak is at approx 20 degrees north.

This means there is a bias towards people dying the further north they live - well a bias towards people living between the 40th and 50th parallel, north. London, Madrid, Lombardy and New York all lie in this region and have all come out of a long, dark, cold winter.

We all know that vitamin D levels are low in these regions, unless diet counterbalances this - see Japan, Scandinavia, Iceland etc .

For all other info, including vit D suppression of cytokine storms, this is the study for the multiple data analysis related to this (conducted by two UK universities - on-going):
www.dropbox.com/s/ka7h4fbi7xdz9s9/Covid-19%20and%20Vitamin%20D%20Information.pdf

The data has not yet included the southern hemisphere data. Australia, New Zealand, with 63 and 9 deaths so far.
Also check out the death rates in the southern hemisphere nations like Argentina, Chile and maybe even South Africa:

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Of course all these nations have come from a long hot sunny summer

Place marking

@midgebabe I think there's just not enough information in the ONS data to really know how much asthmatics are being affected in general or compared with other respiratory diseases. And it's probably also just too early on in the course of the pandemic and will require some really fancy statistics to tease out how much it is a risk factor on its own or in combination with age and other risk factors.

Having said that, you might be interested in this article which suggests that asthmatics are underrepresented in severe covid-19. Possibly inhaled corticosteroids have a protective effect www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30167-3/fulltext

Anxiously awaiting today’s death figures

cloudsinspring yet asthma rate in general population is just under 8%, and the number of victims with asthma was less than 8% of the victims?
Which suggests we can't conclude anything at the moment?

yet asthma rate in general population is just under 8%, and the number of victims with asthma was less than 8% of the victims?
Which suggests we can't conclude anything at the moment?

Yes I am hoping that asthma has been included as a risk factor because it usually is a risk factor for severe reactions to respiratory viruses but that actually it is not an extra risk for this virus. (Hope that makes sense!)

LWJ,

There are several interpretations of that latitude graph:

1/ Average age is higher at 40 degrees north than 20 degrees north.

2/ Heat and/or ultraviolet light destroys the virus on surfaces. leading to a lower infectivity rate.

3/ Vitamin D is protective.

I would guess a combination of (1) and (2) is far more likely than (3) bring a significant factor.

There is also still not enough infection for individual clusters (N.Y and Lombardy) to not significantly skew the data.

Checking in from South Korea here.

ncov.mohw.go.kr
Official figures total/for today in brackets:
Confirmed cases: 10,613 (+22)
Recovered: 7757 (+141)
Undergoing treatment: 2627 (-123)
Deaths: 229 (+4)

It seems relatively under control here and many people are out and about living their normal lives again. Even some not wearing masks. I'm still cautious, wear a mask everywhere, don't meet anyone and only go out if necessary or to walk the dog.

Also a landslide victory in parliamentary elections for the left-wing party headed by President Moon - 60% of the vote with the next biggest party getting 30something. They have handled this crisis really well so far and were rewarded.

Just catching up. Thanks for the new thread and all the contributions.