Meet the Other Phone. Only the apps you allow.

Meet the Other Phone.
Only the apps you allow.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

999 replies

Barracker · 15/04/2020 20:28

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.Flowers

OP posts:
Thread gallery
78
itsgettingweird · 21/04/2020 07:44

One of the authority bodies from Sweden has just been on GMB. It was interesting to watch him say very firmly and calmly that he believe his strategy is fine, it's working and when challenged about whether he is willing to accept he is wrong replied (paraphrased) "opinion can always be proved wrong and time will tell". But very calmly and confidently and accepting of the position this puts governments in.

larrygrylls · 21/04/2020 07:48

Apparently, Stockholm is 70% emptier than it was pre Corona, so people are making big changes.

ShootsFruitAndLeaves · 21/04/2020 07:54

Italy was being totally overwhelmed until they just had to lock down

Let's be clear about what happened in Italy.

North West:
Aosta Valley: 800+deaths/million
Lombardy: 1200+ deaths/million
Liguria: 600+
Piedmont: 550+

North East:
Emilia-Romagna: 700+
Trentino: 340
Veneto: 220+
Friuli-Venezia Giulia: 200+

Centre:
Marche: 550+
Tuscany: 180+
Lazio: 60+
Umbria: 60+

In the South and islands there is very little.

Rome to Milan is the equivalent of London to Dumfries - Italy was not at all overwhelmed in the south. Once you get a couple of provinces away from Lombardy there was no catastrophe.

New York shows the same issue but more extreme - there are huge numbers of dead in NY City and its immediate surrounding counties, but an hour away in the Catskills there is almost nothing,

NewAccountForCorona · 21/04/2020 08:28

Can anyone tell me how exactly they calculate R0? My understanding is that it depends on the initial characteristics of a virus, but can be influenced by reducing contact between infectious people.

I know in Ireland they are contact tracing every new case identified; I don't think they are doing that in the UK, so without contact tracing, how do they know how many people each infected person has passed it on to?

I don't get why they can confidently announce R0 is decreasing - are they just assuming it is because most people are social distancing?

Derbygerbil · 21/04/2020 08:29

@Eyewhisker

The rapid growth experienced in late Feb/early March in a Italy, Spain, the U.K., (and various other places) was a result of people taking little or no measures to restrict its growth. People were working in close proximity every day, people came to work with coughs, people crowded into entertainment venues and on to public transport etc. Things got out of hand so we slammed on the brakes massively, and took extreme measures.

One day, we tolerated being on a bus for 20 minutes with a people coughing all around.... A week or so later and we were petrified that a jogger had violated our 2m space for a split second! In hindsight, we probably didn’t need to take the extreme measures we have done (though i accept my hindsight may be a little premature) to make a big difference. Sweden have made big changes too, just not as extreme or mandated. They aren’t going about their lives as normal... But yet they’ve not taken it the extreme of developing a collective social phobia as most other places seem to have.

As a society, we done the equivalent of an extreme crash diet. It’s as though we went our doctor who told us firmly that we were dangerously obese and unless we take action we will die. In response, we have cut our calories to starvation levels (and yet some say our one bowl
of cabbage soup per day is still too much!). Of course, as any dieter will tell you, extreme diets are neither sustainable nor healthy, and can do more harm than good. To continue this analogy, Sweden has also recognised the doctor’s diagnosis, but is responding by eating sensibly, controlling its portions and cutting out unnecessary snacks and treats.

Derbygerbil · 21/04/2020 08:33

Btw, I’m not arguing Sweden has done everything right, and it may still be in for a nasty shock in the weeks ahead, and it’s care homes appear to have had a really bad time.... my post was more to explain why Sweden’s CV deaths were not growing exponentially, and that we don’t necessarily need to take extreme measures to have a major impact on controlling its spread.

EducatingArti · 21/04/2020 08:34

They can work out R0 statistically. Simply put, If there are 100 new cases a day, but then there are only 80 and then only 64 etc, you would say the R0 is 0.8. you don't need to track each individual case.
Obviously in practice it depends on other things like whether you are still testing the same numbers or go off hospital admissions etc and it is difficult to get clean days so that is why you have an estimate.

Derbygerbil · 21/04/2020 08:35

I don't get why they can confidently announce R0 is decreasing - are they just assuming it is because most people are social distancing?

There’s a big difference between being able to say that R0 is reducing, and being able confidently to place a figure on it. Reductions in hospitalisations is a pretty good indicator that R0 is below 1.

MarshaBradyo · 21/04/2020 08:36

R0 is interesting.

They must be using hospital admissions? In which case I’d like to suggest they look at 111 triaging and ensure it’s at the correct level.

nellodee · 21/04/2020 08:39

Sweden has a weekly periodicity to their death figures. I would wait and see how they do on the 23rd/24th before drawing too many conclusions.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5
Aryaneedle · 21/04/2020 08:40

Is anyone else thinking about what the ONS report is going to look like today re overall deaths?

I think it will either reassure us or it could clarify people’s minds about management of the disease/planning.

None of us know but I hope it’s not as bad as expected.

Humphriescushion · 21/04/2020 08:43

I think someone asked upthread about ro in other countries. In France we were told it is currently 0.6 in lockdown obviously.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/04/2020 08:45

"Let's be clear about what happened in Italy."

The first lockdown was just in the most affected areas of the North

...but immediately people there started moving out to their qnd homes, or to relatives in the South

... spreading the infection there too

Hospitals were mainly overwhelmed in the North, but Country-wide lockdown was still essential - for Italy -
to avoid exponential growth happening everywhere
and hence the hospitals being overwhelmed everywhere

Humphriescushion · 21/04/2020 08:45

Yes i am waiting for the ons report - i want to know care home and community no.s hope these are clear since i struggle to understand.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/04/2020 08:54

larry Ferguson was not out of line to raise worries about the lack of planning for relaxing lockdown
That's not politics;

If - as he presumably has done - he raised his concerns in SAGE and COBR, but not enough has been done,
then it his duty as a key government adviser to say so

Especially when the infrastructure of key epidemiological advice of mass testing and contact tracing is not being built

As a key member of SAGE, he would be consulted and involved in this planning

  • his equivalents in Germany certainly are Merkel and the state governments are taking specific advice from them at every step, for the country and the individual states too

The Uk had an entire new department explicitly dvdoted to carrying out Brexit

The organisation - and hence detailled planning - for relaxing lockdown are not there

This may be a major reason why we have another 3 weeks of lockdown, even though the peak has passed:
with no science-based system to replace it, or to track what is happening, exponential growth could soon restart

BigChocFrenzy · 21/04/2020 09:00

Larry How the Tory or the Labour or any other party does during this national emergency should be a matter of total difference to any adviser,
or indeed to any voter who is not totally blinkered

If there is risk of a major mistake, then this should be made public
and that goes too if the Opposition start advocating something dangerous

itsgettingweird · 21/04/2020 09:00

I'm also interested in what the ONS stats show today.

I've stated a thread about the media and possible lack of understanding or god knows what re reporting unofficial figures and challenging the government about being wrong. I didn't want to start debate here where facts ARE the basis of conversation but would be interested on your views over there.

Frompcat · 21/04/2020 09:01

I thought I read somewhere yesterday that cities were not disproportionately affected.

ShootsFruitAndLeaves · 21/04/2020 09:03

Hospitals were mainly overwhelmed in the North, but Country-wide lockdown was still essential - for Italy -to avoid exponential growth happening everywhere and hence the hospitals being overwhelmed everywhere

That's not necessarily the case. For example 2 people have died in Wyoming. The raging pandemic in NY does not imply a countrywide lockdown.

A lot of this is reactive - the world saw 'Italy' ( in fact a smaller portion of it) was horrendously suffering and reacted accordingly. We obviously don't know what would happen in the end of nothing had been done, but clearly seeing the facts of northern Italy caused much stronger reactions in the south than would otherwise have been the case or were necessarily warranted.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/04/2020 09:10

Eyewhisper The stats for all the Scandinavian countries are clear:

Scandi countries have a much lower death rate than N&W European countries with comparable strategies
BUT

Sweden without a lockdown has a much higher death rate - whether measured in absolute or population normalised deaths - than the other Scandi countries^

We can discuss how much the "Scandi effect" is due to various factors combining:
population density
people leaving large cities nearly empty during this epidemic
social culture naturally more distancing
high number of single person households
high intake of oily fish
high Vit D levels
etc

The classic quote to someone claiming we have sunshine when it is raining is "look out the bloody window"

Imperial originally had China data in their model, because that was all that was available at the time for COVID
then COVID hit Europe
and they looked out the bloody window - and saw Italy

If the UK could have coped without lockdown, then the UK figures with lockdown should be much lower than Italy, Spain, France

In fact the UK is probably going to be higher
which tells us that lockdown was the right policy at the time

BigChocFrenzy · 21/04/2020 09:12

SHoots The USA is a vast vast country, far more spread out than Italy
It also has a federal system with a lot of power locally

The USA, when it comes to an epidemic, behaves more like a continent composed of different countries

Aryaneedle · 21/04/2020 09:12

@itsgettingweird

I will go take a look. I am in work today (social care) but will try contribute later. Wondering what the ONS ststs look like is making me quite nervous.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/04/2020 09:16

SHoots You can look at the curves for both Italy and for Lombardia separately to see the effect of exponential growth and then how lockdown eventually got this under control

You can also compare how much worse Sweden did than its Scandi neighbours

  • that is ok for Sweden when the whole group of countries seems to have a much lower level of danger than N & W Europe

but the UK is behaving like N&W Europe, not Scandi
The UK curve follows the Italy curve closely

MarshaBradyo · 21/04/2020 09:16

I’d love to hear the more sensible opinions on this thread re Professor Carl Heneghan

Did anyone see him? I didn’t but seeing posts on here

Humphriescushion · 21/04/2020 09:19

@itsgettingweird what is the thread?

Swipe left for the next trending thread