Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

@EducatingArti see this site

webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:gu9IX0VmqcoJ:systrom.com/blog/the-metric-we-need-to-manage-covid-19/+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk

The Swedish epidemiologists have expert knowledge of Sweden and what could work there
afaik, they haven't modelled different scenarios for other countries should be doing

If we look at the curves of all the countries compared, it seems that there are groups of countries that have a lot of common factors and behaving in a broadly similar way to each other,
but differently to groups of other countries
e.g. N&W Europe group, Scandi group, highly developed Asian countries

We can all speculate here about "what ifs"
The big difference to our free speculations is that the government of each country has to make the decisions and also the judgements about how many deaths are "acceptable" for their country

That is a terrible burden for any leaders who are not sociopaths / idiots:
how many lives to sacrifice within a few months vs how many will be lost over a much longer term

rt.live/

Have the ONS published new death registrations?
I can't seem to make sense of what is being said on the BBC website. In my kitchen - just caught Victoria Derbyshire say the figures are truly "sobering" but missed the details.

Can't find the full stats yet but from The Independent:

For the number of deaths registered in the week to 10 April 6,213 deaths mentioned "novel coronavirus (Covid-19)" on the death certificate, which is 33 per cent of all deaths. The ONS said this this compared to just 3,475 deaths, or 21 per cent, for the previous week

ONS figures

Main points:

The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 10 April 2020 (Week 15) was 18,516; this represents an increase of 2,129 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 14), is 7,996 deaths more than the five-year average and is the highest weekly total since Week 1 in 2000.

Of the deaths registered in Week 15, 6,213 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which is 33.6% of all deaths; this compares with 3,475 (21.2% of all deaths) in Week 14.

In London, over half (53.2%) of deaths registered in Week 15 involved COVID-19; the West Midlands also had a high proportion of COVID-19 deaths, accounting for 37.0% of deaths registered in this region.
Total deaths registered by place of occurrence between Week 11 (when first COVID-19 deaths were registered) and Week 15, the number of deaths in care homes has doubled by 2,456 deaths (99.4% increase); whilst we have seen a 72.4% increase (3,603 deaths) in hospitals, and 51.1% increase in private homes (1,392 deaths).

Of deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to Week 15, 83.9% (8,673 deaths) occurred in hospital with the remainder occurring in care homes, private homes and hospices.

That was what I was nervous about.

The doubling of care home deaths.

So would it be fair to add 16% on top of the hospital death total? I am at work so can't think it through properly?

Interestingly, overall in the year to date the number of deaths is 10,232 more than the five-year average, which would go against CV being around for a longer time.

Of the deaths registered up to 10 April, 10,350 mentioned the coronavirus which is 5.6% of all deaths.

Humph it's called "why can't the media understand" and in coronavirus topic. It's basically covering why they can't understand reporting facts is more important than catching headlines.

I thought of it because although I don't contribute to the thread here with stats and links I read them all. I'm finding I am getting a true picture from this. And it doesn't paint a good picture. But at least it's truthful and factual.

Thank you :)

Thanks its. Will have a look.

ONS figures may have a comparatively long delay, because of the process involved,
so the current % of care home deaths may be even higher

It would be interesting to overlay the care home curve with the hospital curve,
to see if they have different gradients, timing, peaks

Are we actually seeing the date deaths were registered, or the date on which they occurred ?
(I have a visual disability and iPad won't zoom in properly on some charts)

From other European countries and the US, it is likely that care home deaths are around 50% of all COVID deaths

It's the dates the deaths were registered. So there will be a lag, however they worked all through the Easter weekend and no drop in registrations then.

There's some reference to releasing provisional figures to date up to the 18th, but I can't find those.

Will have to suffer idiot journalists who failed maths GCSE talking about these ONS deaths for the next few days.

The numbers are quite good for being record deaths. Deaths at 18500 vs 16400 the previous week vs 10500 normally.

Number of excess deaths WITHOUT covid-19 mentioned DOWN on last week from 2700 to 1800, a fall of 1/3. These deaths are roughly 31-6 April death date so we should expect a very similar total next week, and hence we have

1k excess deaths week 13
6k excess deaths week 14
8k excess deaths week 15
Probably 8k week 16
Then perhap 5.5k week 17

This should be somewhere over 35k deaths and short of 40k

Next step is to work out how to increase economic activity by making sensible relaxations of the lockdown over the next weeks.

I.e. 35-40k deaths from this wave of covid-19

"Next step is to work out how to increase economic activity by making sensible relaxations of the lockdown over the next weeks"

This is precisely what every government should be doing:

Judging how to get the biggest "economic buck" for our "deaths bang"

This needs to be on the basis of the best scientific - and economic - advice,
with these experts involved at every stage, discussing and advising the govt what to do next

Someone upthread asked about R0 calculation

I can't find how the UK calculated this,
but here is the German methodology from the RKI (Public health Germany):

"Estimation of the reproduction number (R)

The reproduction number, R, is the mean number of persons infected by a case.

R can only be estimated and not directly extracted from the notification system.

The current estimate is R= 0.9 (95% confidence interval: 0.8-1.1) and is based on current electronically notified cases (20/04/2020, 12:00 A.M.) and an assumed mean generation time of 4 days.

Cases with disease onset on the preceding 3 days were excluded from the estimation as their low number due to incomplete reporting would lead to an unstable

For more details on the methodology see Epid. Bull. 17 | 2020:"

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2020/17/Art_02.html

Note: The report is a snapshot and is continuously updated.

"Cases with disease onset on the preceding 3 days were excluded from the estimation as their low number due to incomplete reporting would lead to an unstable" estimate

This table gives data on confirmed German COVID cases in care homes, medical practices, catering etc

I can't yet find separate deaths in these categories, only by age and sex

Current total of all confirmed cases in Germany is about 145,000
Looks like roughly 10% of these cases are in care homes and similar institutions
they were subject to early quarantine measures, but these can never fully work, even with good PPE

care homes are included in the German total
The RKI states that hospital and care home deaths are notified "automatically electronically" to them and they then sum centrally for each daily total

Probably more like 40k. Looking at previous years, Easter seems to drive down deaths for both Good Friday week and Easter Monday week , so probably more like 20k deaths than 18.5k, and then some extra deaths dragged out for weeks following

On the subject of antibodies and plasma infusions I'm wondering, if we can treat people by harvesting antibodies from humans do we need to pay pharmaceutical companies to develop a vaccine?
A vaccine which may not even be achievable?

Probably more like 40k. Looking at previous years, Easter seems to drive down deaths for both Good Friday week and Easter Monday week , so probably more like 20k deaths than 18.5k, and then some extra deaths dragged out for weeks following

The ONS say that hasn't happened this year. Although time will tell I suppose.

@B1rdbra1n - there are international clinical trials going on just now, in which the NHS is participating.

Some are looking at anti-virals- that might be more promising than a vaccine.