Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 5

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 5 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Google mobility stats

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

If there is. vIt D thread can we link to it please

www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-numbers Another article in excess deaths and data not behind a paywall.

On average the uk has reported 740 deaths in the last 7 days.
The 7 days preceding that was 850.

There is a thread here already running that might be suitable for posting evidence www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3870587-Evidence-to-suggest-vitamin-D-can-prevent-viral-respiratory-infections-and-lessen-the-severity-if-you-do-contract-it?pg=1&order=

I work in A&E and it's hard even triaging people to the "clean" and "dirty" areas correctly, and hassle if they're then in the "wrong" area and need a CT scan from the "clean" scanner etc

It would be logistically very difficult to have separate hospitals

I could only see it working if we had an accurate and rapid test (like the point of care flu test we use in the winter which only takes around 10 minutes to run)

www.eastmidlandsbusinesslink.co.uk/mag/news/derby-company-launches-rapid-test-coronavirus/ I don't know whether this is for real or not but if it is then it could be an option.

@123bananas I have a feeling they supplied the Harley Street Doctor who made a couple of million or so selling private tests. The company was definitely based in Derbyshire.

Are the nurses and doctors who are getting this mainly working directly with covid patients, or are they more indirect (and so less ppe?). Or is it both ?

Was it this one? @Alwayscheerful

@123bananas that was the one I was thinking about but he used a company in Barnsley and they couldn't cope with the orders he passed on so Mark Ali had to refund many of his customers.

@123bananas

Does anyone know why we have such high cases

Just noticed that for ages france was way ahead of us

And now it’s other way round or am I wrong?

They have more deaths but they’re counting hospitals and community. Their hospital only deaths are approx 12k whereas ours are much much higher so I presume our overall deaths inc community are vastly higher too

Do we have a different strain you think? 🤔

There's no convincing evidence for different strains being a significant factor in national differences

There is quite a bit of evidence that what helps keep deaths down are:

. A competent government with good leaders

. Learning from what countries did who were hit earlier

. Early action on social distancing, e.g. lockdown

. A well-resourced health service

. Prompt treatment of sick COVID patients, without the health service being overwhelmed, but without achieving this by restricting access to treatment

. Extensive testing and contact tracing

Mortality associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes: early international evidence

https://ltccovid.org/2020/04/12/mortality-associated-with-covid-19-outbreaks-in-care-homes-early-international-evidence/

•	Data from 3 epidemiological studies in the United States shows that as many as half of people with COVID-19 infections in care homes were asymptomatic (or pre-symptomatic) at the time of testing

•	New data from Belgium shows that 73% of staff and 69% of residents who tested positive were asymptomatic.

.....
• In the remaining 5 countries for which we have official data (Belgium, Canada, France, Ireland and Norway), and where the number of total deaths ranges from 136 to 17,167, the % of COVID-related deaths in care homes ranges from 49% to 64%).

•	Data reported by media as coming from official sources for Portugal and Spain suggests rates of 33% and 53% respectively.

•	<strong>The authors have considered that it is not possible to draw accurate estimates from the data that is currently in public domain in the United Kingdom.</strong> 🤦🏻‍♀️ 🤯 🤬

John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch (FT

"We know 9 out of 10 [covid] deaths occur in hospital" — Yvonne Doyle of @PHE_uk

But we know that data is highly suspect.

Nursing homes account for 50% or more of covid deaths in Belgium, Canada, France, Ireland, Norway.

Main reason UK % is lower is bad data....

We’ve reported on this ourselves:
..... while we’ve seen a huge spike in UK care home deaths, they’re simply not being recorded as covid deaths

https://www.ft.com/content/9d6b46e2-55f4-4de1-ba21-f1ab9f14bcbf

For geographical reasons, the epidemic in the UK is about 2-3 weeks behind the epidemics in continental Europe

So naturally they had more deaths earlier on than the UK

Yes but we have already presumably had more debates than france who were ahead of us - that’s by time we include deaths in care homes

In terms of lockdown - we actually lockdown at same point the other countries did - itsbjust they were ahead of us but in terms of severity, we all did at same time and imo it was too soon as already most people are bored and starting to flout it

People are going to start saying that the excess deaths outside hospital are due to people with non-Covid emergencies being scared to access hospital. So care home deaths will be put down to "cardiac failure" for example; without a test Covid won't appear on the death certificate, and the deaths will be blamed on lockdown.

I am getting very cynical about this.

The UK locked down a week after Ireland, and two weeks later than they should have done. And lockdown (as I keep saying) isn't as strict. Pubs/clubs/hospital visits were still going strong a week after they closed in Ireland; matches/Cheltenham/Crufts etc all went ahead in March after the rugby matches had been cancelled. People coming off flights into the UK were just going home when they were being told to self-isolate for 14 days in Ireland.

And schools and non-essential work (Amazon, B&Q deliveries etc etc) are still happening in the UK. It may be lockdown for some people, but a hell of a lot of people are still working.

De-lurking to ask a question (and say thank you for all the knowledge and data on this thread).
The area I am in, cases (ie tested in hospital) have now risen for three days in a row. I'm in relatively low case, semi-rural area and we are 4 weeks into lockdown. Is it likely that the rises (between 6- 15 per day) can be attributed to the testing of hospital staff rather than community cases?

But lockdown isn’t to prevent deaths

We can’t prevent deaths as we have no immunity and no vaccine

Lockdown was to prevent nhs being over run

We have done that as we still have capacity so we have succeeded

We can’t hide from a virus as it’ll take two years maybe for a vaccine so it’s gradual herd immunity or hide forever

People are wishing for something that isn’t possible

Sunshine yes to your last post. Out of interest which countries are you thinking of who locked down at same time as us but with greater severity?

I thought we were one of the later ones on the curve.

There are 8 strains apparently

We have the same one as France and Belgium.

My current bugbear is 111 triage and pathway. Reading about people’s experiences is making me frustrated (not the long thread one but a few posts).

It feels like the big issue.

Well when I say big issue, apart from all the unknowns and economy and pressing PPE situation.

Sunshine

to get herd immunity and not overwhelm the NHS you need to keep the thing very very slow so it takes over 10 years . And do we want to live with the very real likelyhood of Second, third and more successive lockdowns? That would be devastating to the economy

Look how close the NHS is to being overwhelmed...in fact you could say it is overwhelmed as it has suspended many normal procedures , so we need to keep the level of hospitalisation somewhat lower than we have over the last month

So the level of infection has to be extremely low. Not to prevent deaths , just to protect the NHS ( with a side benefit of preventing death )

Which then takes us back to test, trace quarantine like the WHO and many other countries seem to think is the way forward

And lockdown (as I keep saying) isn't as strict.

It is not as strict but it appears to be quite effective:

institute.global/sites/default/files/inline-files/A%20Sustainable%20Exit%20Strategy%2C%20Managing%20Uncertainty%2C%20Minimising%20Harm.pdf

Based on Imperial estimates, R0 in the UK is currently lower than in Germany, France or Spain (if I am correctly interpreting the colour coding on page 8).

The stringency of the rules is not sufficient for the lockdown effectiveness. People's behaviour and their willingness to comply with the rules are major success drivers. Rules in some countries may be strict but they are also irrational (e.g. no exercise) so more people tend to ignore them and continue socialising (indoors). This pushes R0 higher.