How is this still spreading?

[Dee96]

This may sound like a rather dumb question but the whole point of lockdown was to decrease the rate of this spread. I understand for a while into the lockdown we was going to see the results of those who caught it beforehand starting to display symptons but were all 3 weeks into this now and it doesnt seem to be slowing down. Yes I know people still need to go the shops ect but given the measures they are now taking and how they are controlling how many people enter the shops I would think it's actually safer and less likely a risk to shop now rather than before when everyone was panic buying. So how come death rates and cases dont seem to be slowing, especially given theres a huge amount of undetected cases as well

And of course incubation periods. People can take 7-14 days to show symptoms and days to weeks more to get very ill

I'm pretty sure I caught it at the supermarket. It's the only place I've been, even before lockdown. But you can't stop people going to the supermarket.

We aren't trying to eliminate this remember. We're trying to slow it enough so the NHS can cope. Normally healthy (ish) people like me are supposed to get it and build up immunity.

So how come death rates and cases dont seem to be slowing, especially given theres a huge amount of undetected cases as well

The rate of increase in deaths is slowing. If no measures had been taken, it would have continued to rise exponentially.

Mostly as others have said from exposure, through the incubation period (2-14 days) to seriously ill (a further 7-12 days so up to 26 days from exposure) to either recovering or death (further 1-14+ days)- can potentially be a long time- so both the cases and the deaths at the moment are likely to be from cases caught in mid-March.

In terms of where people are catching it now- for the average person this would be the supermarket or chemist and/or from parcels (it can survive 2-9 days on packaging) and then there are key workers who are catching it because of inadequate protective gear.

Shopping. The 2m distance thing is no guarantee of safety,, going into a shop where people have been breathing all day.

Do people genuinely believe that viruses just hang around in the air all day? Is it the Middle Ages?

Scientists believe it can linger indoors for 9mins to 3 hours (opinions differ)

I’d expect it to be near the lower figure but what do I know.

It’s not airborne but droplets can linger

“So how come death rates and cases dont seem to be slowing, ...”

They are starting to slow down. The growth has slowed down considerably and the total new cases/new deaths each day is levelling off/almost decreasing. The U.K. appears to be at the peak now.
Here is a great graph that shows this
ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-3-day-average

The graph is useful but slows the death figures fall every Sunday/at weekends... it’s to do with a lag in reporting

Excited mum, yes thats why it’s a three day rolling average. To minimise the impact of the weekend reporting lag.

It was the police who reported breaking up the 600+ parties.
Maybe they're in on the conspiracy too.

You need to look at the graphs on the graphs thread.

The airports have been operating as normal

A colleague lives on the flight path of a major airport. He told us there was one plane had passed overhead on Friday - this was previously one of the busiest days for travel out of the airport.

Another friend works at that airport and is one of hundreds who have been made redundant.

UK Airports cannot possibly be operating as normal when UK airlines have grounded the vast majority of flights.

Canterbury The ONS figures are adjusting after 10 days not 3

I’ll find the link for you

Canterbury here you go

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending27march2020

I think it is slowing down, the scientific officer the other day said he would expect new cases in the community now to be reducing. Of course it will reduce if sufficient people aren’t going anywhere to spread the virus. It won’t disappear though because people do still have to go out sometimes.

I haven't said anything about the ONS adjusting any numbers!

I think we are the most obese country in Europe, that would mean more who get it would die.

ODFOD

That has nothing to do with the number of infections. Some people really will take every opportunity to have a go at fat people and blame them for everything

many posting on MN now will be dead this year or the next from Covid-19

Christ aren’t you a ray of sunshine

I think we need to grit our teeth and lockdown until the end of May. Hopefully by then we should start seeing a reduction

Exercising and the daily walks are the problems imo but I doubt people will agree to give up on them .....

I love MN. Exercising is the issue. But so are fat people. Can't win really!

Just seen a lady I know on Facebook banging on how hard isolating is and they cant see certain grandparents yet have had a family dinner with their husband and kids, said kay's mum and dad and her sister, husband and child! I am astonished and I have a few friends who are single and haven't seen a single person and are struggling, its probably creating a fuck it mentality

Also of course normal day to day shopping, petrol stations etc and idiots sitting on park benches.

Again having a High BMI puts you at very high risk, people shouldn't be offended by this when it's the cold hard truth

Canterbury

I didn’t say you had! I thought I had, but I was posting two threads at once.

Hopefully you might find the link informative anyway

I wasn’t having a go in the slightest. Peace? X

Canterbury and dumbo me meant to reply to the poster above you anyway. Man I need to go to bed. Sorry. Looks like you and I are on the same page views wise.