How is this still spreading?

[Dee96]

This may sound like a rather dumb question but the whole point of lockdown was to decrease the rate of this spread. I understand for a while into the lockdown we was going to see the results of those who caught it beforehand starting to display symptons but were all 3 weeks into this now and it doesnt seem to be slowing down. Yes I know people still need to go the shops ect but given the measures they are now taking and how they are controlling how many people enter the shops I would think it's actually safer and less likely a risk to shop now rather than before when everyone was panic buying. So how come death rates and cases dont seem to be slowing, especially given theres a huge amount of undetected cases as well

It may be contrarian thinking, but the emphasis on testing now, before we have proven tests for antigens or antibodies, is probably a distraction, aimed at establishing a reliable statistic. On an individual level, sturdy social distancing and good hygiene rules are your best bet. I am quite cheered by the column 5 figures posted upthread: it suggests to me that the figures will trend down from Good Friday -- but may be not in a smooth curve.

Airports have stopped operating normally now but until very recently you could still travel. Iirc the BBC travel expert, Simon Calder, was abroad while other European countries were in lockdown. Anyone coming into the country, even now, isn't tested or forced to quarantine.

For those of you saying it’s spreading because Uk lockdown isn’t harsh enough, a view from where I am (Isle of Man)

All non essential businesses are closed. All construction is stopped other than emergencies like a power outage. If a window breaks no one can even fix it, it’s an emergency boarding up service.

Nearly everyone other than the obvious are working from home. Cars are being stopped and people asked where they are going and sent home if non essential. You are expected to shop at your nearest shop.

You are only meant to exercise “from your door” so no travelling to Beaty spots etc.

No carpet fitters, no handymen, garages are shut for non emergency works.

Any sign of symptoms and you have to self isolate for 14 days.

All people returning from off island had to self isolate for 14 days or get arrested up until a couple of weeks ago when the border closed completely other than freight and medical emergency. Even residents off island were stopped from coming home (this is being addressed in next few weeks for returning residents, who will be put in a local hotel for 14 days, no visitors)

It’s still spreading, possibly more quickly than the Uk although we are testing a much higher percentage of the population.

These are mainly steps we could take that you couldn’t, it’s still going to spread and pretty much everyone will get it in the next few months it’s simply about slowing the spread

It's spreading within households too. I started on 17th March, dh the week after and the kids a week later.

Don’t forget, lockdown is designed to stop people getting coronavirus - it’s designed to stop us all getting it at the same time. Ultimately, herd immunity remains the only way out of this crisis.

The people who are dying now will have been ill/infected for a long time. There's a 2 week incubation period and then people generally get very poorly on around day 10 of their symptoms. New hospital admissions are starting to level off, i think.

Where is the evidence that covid-19 survivors have any lasting immunity @alextreveylan006? Do you have a link? No herd immmunity without individual immunity

Tbh it doesn’t matter whether the evidence exists because the only way to end the crisis is through herd immunity - that’s not an opinion, it’s a fact.

The development of a successful vaccine is the best way of achieving herd immunity, but it’s possible without one.

Have a look at the difference in PPE between NHS staff and healthcare workers in South Korea, Japan, US even. Flimsy aprons here versus a long and complicated session to get into the advanced PPE in other countries. Boris' "human shield" phrase about the NHS was sadly true. We aren't adequately protecting the people who are giving their all to help us survive.

Lack of PPE is only evidence that no one was paying attention to the pandemic warnings that are always high profile in briefing material. It's like snow warnings in the South of England; it doesn't happen often and usually just enough sees the situation sorted. But it is excessive to prepare for every threat, because most will fizzle out harmlessly. Except that once in a half century, something bigger comes along.

I don't pretend to know where the judgement call lines should be placed, so if the people in charge don't call it perfectly in a real live pandemic, I can't quarrel with their instructions. I am social distancing, shopping infrequently and living a very quiet life at home and via Zoom.

All it really takes is one asymptomatic carrier to take their daily walk in the park and sit down on the bench. They then shed viral load onto said bench. Then an hour later, another person does the same, sits on the bench during their daily exercise. They pick up the virus off the surface of the bench. That person then spreads it to their husband and three kids. Husband then nips into the shop and pick up a loaf of brown bread. "Oh no, I don't want this brown bread, it's the white I want" so he puts it down and picks up the white. Next person comes along and picks up the brown bread (with the virus particles all over). They then take it home, put it down on the counter and the rest of the family touch said counter (or become infected from other members of the family. I could go on and on...

Every bus I see (I see lots, especially when cycling): is completely empty.

I live near the train station: can't actually see any passengers, or maybe 1-2 (we are the busiest stop on the branch line).

The playgrounds are locked, the parks are quite empty.

Chemist: only lets one customer in at a time.

Corner shop: only lets 3 people inside at a time.

20 minute Qs to get into any supermarkets. DH does the shopping, says few are in there.

Countryside: everyone creates a 2m gap.

Park benches: sometimes 1-2 people there, I suppose.

I just don't see any crowding anywhere . I don't think transmission is happening in any of those places.

But I hear the tube is crowded still?

Some little bugger sneezed as I walked past them this morning. If they are infectious, that's my family also infected. If I go shopping, I may unknowingly infect the people there. It doesn't take much.

@daisypond

Sorry that is what I meant.
Trying to Express that it's not just "key workers" still having to work.
Its frustrating hearing "why are they going out, they're not a key worker etc etc"

Our local co-op is full of people getting their daily sandwich. No 'one on one out' there! I now stay well away.

One week to show symptoms, 2 weeks to become really unwell, another week before either recovering or dying so 3 weeks is not long enough to see a difference. Plus then you have key workers who are being exposed to it and adding to the numbers and then if there’s a case in someone’s home it can spread to other family members (2 weeks fret the original person brought it to the household). It’s going to take at least another week until we see much difference in the death numbers and many weeks after that until numbers are down enough to lift lockdown.

Lockdown is working but it needs to carry on for quite a few more weeks before numbers come right down

Sadly the coming week is going to be awful.

30 days from catching it to a registered death.

As our numbers are taken from those admitted to hospital with serious breathing problems they will be a few weeks in.

For severe cases requiring hospitalisation:

5 days on average from contact to symptoms. Although it can be up to 21 days.

Another 7 days for the initial infection to take hold.

Then a further 7 days when at some point during this time you may be hospitalised.

I make that 19 days or fewer.

Lockdown has been 18 days now. We should begin to see a drop in the next week hopefully.

This is assuming that people are not getting infected after lockdown. They will, it's very contagious, but the rate will slow.

Airports were not doing any checks a week after lockdown. A friend of mine had to plane hop to get back from a far flung destination. Absolutely no checks coming into the country from the Middle East.

Friends landed back via Doha on Friday. Sauntered through the airport with no checks.

I wonder how many people already in hospital are developing the virus and dying. Eddie Large was one of these a few weeks ago and a member of my family went into hospital for a cancer operation prior to lock down and was tested prior to admission and was negative. Sadly he died last week after being found to be positive. He had been released from hospital and hadn’t been put so must have picked up the virus there. Now his wife and family are having to self isolate at this awful time.

Exercising and the daily walks are the problems imo but I doubt people will agree to give up on them .....

How are they the problem?

The fact is, too many people are still getting too close to other people wherever, however and whoever. You only need one asymptomatic person in the supermarket near you...(interesting data on today's graphs thread about just how far this virus can travel)

600+ parties broken up by police
Footage we've all seen of parks full of people
So many people still working.

Where is this fact? The data shows that the vast majority of people are following the rules. 600 reports of parties, not 600 parties.

The media is doing a good job of making us think everyone is out and about galavanting. But the evidence is otherswise.

The figures are showing that it is doing roughly what it should. We haven't reached the peak yet, we are still looking at cases caught from BEFORE the lockdown. At best the first week. We need to wait another couple of weeks before we can make sweeping statements about the effectiveness of the lockdown.

Lots of companies still forcing people to work. Particularly busy offices and call centres for communications and finance firms. Lots of non essential stores still selling online.

We don’t have a proper lockdown.

These people take it home to families.

They all shop.

The two metre rule only reduces risk doesn’t eliminate.

It spreads on surfaces.

People flouting rules

Many reasons.

Spread has slowed but not enough because of the abode

Above