How is this still spreading?

[Dee96]

This may sound like a rather dumb question but the whole point of lockdown was to decrease the rate of this spread. I understand for a while into the lockdown we was going to see the results of those who caught it beforehand starting to display symptons but were all 3 weeks into this now and it doesnt seem to be slowing down. Yes I know people still need to go the shops ect but given the measures they are now taking and how they are controlling how many people enter the shops I would think it's actually safer and less likely a risk to shop now rather than before when everyone was panic buying. So how come death rates and cases dont seem to be slowing, especially given theres a huge amount of undetected cases as well

I don’t think we will start to see a difference until a week on Tuesday.

I didn't realise that airports were still operating without restrictions.

Wondering whether Gina Miller will take the government to court for their dreadful handling of this...

The Tube in London is packed because of the reduced services. Easy to pick something up on the way to work, many people are still working.

I have it at the moment. I most likely caught it from a supermarket, because the first week of the lockdown I had to go to at least one shop a day, more often 3 just to get the basics.

And I've been shopping since twice a week on average.

It's becoming my soapbox subject, but I have to say PPE is a contributing factor again.

Not only has the PPE been inadequate in hospital settings, but it has been woeful in care homes, and among community nurses and carers visiting vulnerable people in their own homes.

If keyworkers, don't have adequate protection, they will continue to acquire and spread this awful disease.

People that are going to hospital caught it before the lock down or passed it to people in their own homes after the lockdown. It can take up to a month to incubate then weeks before you are hospitalised. People still have to go to supermarkets. Essential workers are still working.

People may be catching it second or third hand from others with mild or no symptoms. Or from those still working.

Because of the lack of PPE, frontline NHS workers like my friend are still at risk and becoming 'statistics' every day.

Forgot to say, my DD was working yesterday. Only about eight of them in, apparently one came in feeling ill at the start of her day, decided to go home half way throught to isolate. If she does have Covid, it'll be all over the tills, food, staff room so chances are a customer or at least one member of staff will pick it up and then spread it to someone else, especially as it's hard to keep to the 2m in a shop.

Incubation periods. We're drunk seeing cases from Mother's Day and the weekend before when everyone was still largely ignoring all advice and pilling in to the pub for their last chance

Don't forget we're also increasing testing (too slowly IMO but that's by-the-by). More tests = more cases found. On it's own it doesn't mean the rate of infection is rising.

Also the last time I went to the supermarket, despite the one way system and lines on the floor, the shop assistants were using cages to re stack which meant tpyi couldn't keep 2m apart. And I had to ask several times if I could get by and they didn't move enough for me to leave 2m. And 3 of them were standing together and one coughed as I went past.

Its a minimum of 2-3 days and upto 3 weeks before symptoms show, if at all and between 2 days - 1 week before this shows in the 'confirmed' figures, then 1-4 weeks before deaths. So you expect confirmed cases to start dropping ~3 weeks after an effective lockdown and deaths 2-3 weeks after that.

Importantly the ~1000 daily deaths we are seeing today reflect the confirmed infection levels of 2-3 weeks ago - given those have trebled since then we should expect to see death levels of 2-3000 a day at peak.

The graphs on www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ae5dda8f86814ae99dde905d2a9070ae
show that lockdown has stopped the exponential growth in infections (look at the bar charts) so we have predictable level of daily deaths but until infections drop we can't think about easing lockdown. At that point everyone who is going to die (apart from nurses unfortunately) should be in hospital.

Essential workers are catching it and taking it back to their families/ general population.
Flights still coming in, with no checks.
Public transport for essential workers.
Asymptomatic people who don't know they are, so not isolating.

And from posts on here, people still think it's ok to go out for a run etc whilst symptomatic as long as they keep their 2m distance. Both confusing advice from government and wilfully misunderstanding will contribute

Yes, cyclists and runners, that'll be right. You need exposure of about 15 minutes with an infected person to become infected. A passing brush against someone else won't do it.

Nearly all of our council are still working deemed key workers, redeployed into other areas. Then our nhs workers, banks, social services, teaching the list goes on. We are slowing it to the point the nhs can cope hopefully, that is all.

This virus is new and unknown till now. Just yesterday a newspaper was quoting a scientist (in China?) saying virus can be caught from 10 m. away and not less than 2 m.

Because the U.K. government has not implemented mass testing, isolation & contact tracing as has been done very successfully in Germany.

@peajotter described it perfectly.Those dying now most likely caught it before the lock down.

we're all 3 weeks into this now and it doesnt seem to be slowing down

The rate of increase is actually slowing down all the time ... see fifth column in after the day number: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview#

Millions of people are still at work. My OH works in a call centre. Sickness spreads like crazy through offices etc. Retail staff, warehouse staff, emergency services and many other jobs you cannot do from home are still out at work.

Sorry, should have said I was referring to the rate of increase in cases, as opposed to deaths ...

If we hadn't had lockdown, the amount of cases and deaths was increasing exponentially.

Now, it's hardly increasing at all.

Exponential growth: 500, 1000, 2000, 4000
Linear growth: 500, 600, 700, 800

Without lockdown, our growth would have been more like the top line. Now it's more like the bottom line. (This is obviously massively oversimplified, but the principle is correct).

Seems crazy that a 'call centre job can't be done at home.