How is this still spreading?

[Dee96]

This may sound like a rather dumb question but the whole point of lockdown was to decrease the rate of this spread. I understand for a while into the lockdown we was going to see the results of those who caught it beforehand starting to display symptons but were all 3 weeks into this now and it doesnt seem to be slowing down. Yes I know people still need to go the shops ect but given the measures they are now taking and how they are controlling how many people enter the shops I would think it's actually safer and less likely a risk to shop now rather than before when everyone was panic buying. So how come death rates and cases dont seem to be slowing, especially given theres a huge amount of undetected cases as well

It will slow but a big lag we only do tests in hospital and even then it’s the death rate we really listen to.

Plus many people still working (not wfh)

The death rate tells us nothing its the infection rate which is important.

Lots of people still at work, I work in a lab so cannot wfh

In the absence of knowing the infection rate we have information which is lagged.

There’s no point in going on about the infection rate the U.K. doesn’t have that data.

We will see a slowing about three weeks after lockdown.

Breatheless - you seem to have it in for supermarket workers and now you say you have CV. How on earth can you possibly know that without a test?

My DS works in a supermarket and he says the general public are often shameless and shocking in their behaviour

Going to the front of the supermarket queue and demanding they be allowed in first for xxx reason. Kicking off and literally in the face of the supervisor.

Going in as couples because that is what they have always done and after all there is nothing better to do. Wandering around the aisles and getting in the way whilst they shop together.

Taking their kids as a day out and again blocking up the aisles

Abusing the staff and demanding my DS took cash (from their manky old pocket)

Coming in 5 minutes before closing and refusing to hurry. They literally don’t care.

Moaning about the cafe being closed

Demanding the delivery time for toilet rolls so that they can grab their ‘share’.

Putting their loyalty/credit cards in their MOUTHS and then passing it over.

It can take 2 weeks for symptoms to show, then 2 weeks to die. So the people dying now were likely infected a full week before the lockdown started

Because the people who caught it the day before lockdown incubated it for up to 14 days - then it takes longer to die. Horrible but true. We're only counting deaths. In a few weeks all those that would have died will have already don't so and numbers will fall. New infections will be significantly lowe

It’s still spreading cause no ones knows how many people really have it. The only tested cases except the PM & Health secretary are those who are very ill. It’s a total cluster fuck thanks to BoJo and his cronies.

Yes - the lag between initial infection and testing positive or death can be quite long.

I think too that a lot of people think they'll just go and visit their Mum/best friend/boyfriend and don't realise that that is still a contact.

I'm having terrible trouble trying to keep my Mum in because she's used to going to other houses for a cuppa and a chat and I think she thinks they won't have Covid because she knows them sigh

Lockdown aimed to slow the rate increase as much as possible. People were still expected to die every day and the rate was still expected to increase. Just a slower slope we hoped.

But also as people have said information is lagging and brave heroes are still shouting "I can go on picnics if I want to so there, Ner Ner Ner!"

The death rate will continue to rise as it takes time for an infected person to become critical.
For example a friend who died on Thursday, the latest she could have been infected was mid-March as she genuinely hadn't been out nor even taken things in since she isolated then.

But plenty of people are still going out. At least one person on my fb has family members going out for exercise even though he thinks he has it. People in the supermarket, buying shopping for someone else and taking cash, people stopping to have a drink and sitting on a bench... then the next person does the same etc.
That's why the infection rate, even among people who would say they weren't really going out will continue to spread.

The other thing is we can’t contain the virus in the U.K. so it’s not to stop infection just let us build up capacity for next wave.

Yes, cyclists and runners, that'll be right. You need exposure of about 15 minutes with an infected person to become infected. A passing brush against someone else won't do it.

The virus is transported by droplets from a cough or a sneeze either directly, or onto objects. That doesn’t take 15 mins.

But there is also some evidence of airborne transmission - whereby the virus spreads in much smaller particles from exhaled air called aerosols. The difference being that droplets from cough/sneeze are heavier and don’t travel far before falling, whereas aerosol can stay airborne for some time (up to several hours).

A study on flu found that almost 40% of people exhaled infectious aerosols. In which case if you share airspace with someone and breath the air that they exhale, airborne transmission is possible.

Studies on aerosol transmission in covid are mixed and It will be a long time before research can prove it definitively. But some scientists working on it, expert in airborne respiratory illness + aerosols, are already pretty convinced.

Either way it would be safer to assume that airborne transmission is possible until evidence proves otherwise.

@Bathroom12345 of course I don't know for definite. I'd be surprised if it isn't. I haven't been this ill for at least 15 years. I have a dry cough, chest pains and difficulty breathing. I've had a high temp and even sitting up in bed made me breathless. NHS 111 seemed to think it was. As close as you can know without a test.

I don't have it in for supermarket workers (as a very large and varied group of people). I am annoyed at the 4-5 that I encountered in my local store who walked past me, brushing into me (that's how close), wouldn't move the cage to one side or themselves so I could get past with a reasonable distance. I really cross with the one who coughed (not even into his hand, let alone his elbow) as I walked passed.

There are some fantastic staff in that store and the many other stores I've had to visit, who've dealt with rude customers, made space for people helped elderly people.

Complaining about the behaviour of 4 or 5 doesn't mean I have it in for them all.

You need exposure of about 15 minutes with an infected person to become infected. A passing brush against someone else won't do it

That's incorrect. You only need something like 20 virus 🦠. It's easy to pick it up while it's suspended in the air from someone's breath or brushing against it, touching that & then your face.

The death rate will continue to rise as it takes time for an infected person to become critical. For example a friend who died on Thursday, the latest she could have been infected was mid-March as she genuinely hadn't been out nor even taken things in since she isolated then.

I’m really sorry to hear that.

On runners Runners World Belgian and Dutch study

‘When you are moving — running, cycling, walking — you are actually creating an area behind you that is often called a slipstream,’ he explained. This slipstream, which can be as long as 15 metres, is made up of tiny droplets that are then inhaled by the person behind you.

Lockdown has only been three weeks.
Contact with infected person to showing symptoms 7 to 14 days
Symptoms becoming critical enough to require hospital admission 10 days
Admission to death can be a couple of days to a couple of weeks.

It's really only deaths that accurately reflect infections rates.

So we are only now entering the time when lockdown would affect death rates

Call centres can set people up at home but are choosing not to due to the cost. There is a huge EDF & EE call centre nearby me. EDF have got people working from home. EE have remained until recently that they cannot set people up to WFH. Ironic considering they're literally called everything everywhere and are using this pandemic as an opportunity to advertise their ability to keep people connected during this time and can assist in setting their customers up to WFH but would not offer that same flexibility to their own staff. They're only shifting this stance recently due to union pressure.

The reported figures relate to the day people were officially reported having died, not the day they actually died. That is a lag of days, weeks, even months. Eg, yesterday’s figures probably refer to those who died a whole week earlier.

I have assumed that the increase in testing has meant n increase in positive results, so if we were still testing the same amount of people per day as we were a week or two ago, the numbers would possibly be looking less by now

Because fucking selfish idiots like my neighbor is on her seventh visitor to her house in two weeks. Currently they are sunbathing and having a drink in her garden. She works in an old people’s home as a carer ffs (yes she has been reported)

True Daisy

You can still get it in supermarkets and chemists. All those people still working and catching the tube, then you just have to see the number of people sunbathing in parks. That's a lot of people still. :(