How is this still spreading?

[Dee96]

This may sound like a rather dumb question but the whole point of lockdown was to decrease the rate of this spread. I understand for a while into the lockdown we was going to see the results of those who caught it beforehand starting to display symptons but were all 3 weeks into this now and it doesnt seem to be slowing down. Yes I know people still need to go the shops ect but given the measures they are now taking and how they are controlling how many people enter the shops I would think it's actually safer and less likely a risk to shop now rather than before when everyone was panic buying. So how come death rates and cases dont seem to be slowing, especially given theres a huge amount of undetected cases as well

Because we are still in contact with others.

We haven't shopped in over a week but we have had deliveries, so that's contact.

My neighbour seems to get his daily paper, his grandkids stay there part time, the parents visit.

Some of my friends seem to think a daily walk means they can visit people if they stay outside and then visit shops daily.

All are risk factors and transmission.

My husband still works, not this week, but is usually in peoples houses daily fixing gas appliances.

Every contact is possible spread. It's faster now as more people are exposed.

So imagine that everyone infected person infects 5 other People, the more people infected the more people and quicker the rate others will be infected.

I know someone who has brought it home today from working at a newsagent. Lots of people are working.

Where I live all the people I see walking past definitely look over 70 (suburban relatively wealthy area) and over 70s have surely been told to stay in. So hardly surprising, tho very sad for young families staying in while the oldies flout they rules.

Cnversations at call centres have to be recorded, so difficult to manage.

Article in Guardian saying 100s flock to park in London. I guess that's why!

Our testing has been lacklustre, at the beginning, only a few people were being tested, those with symptoms, and not all of those. Now, in theory, we're testing more, so we're finding more cases.

So we're not comparing the same - of course the more we test, the more cases we'll find.

The slope is staying the same, or maybe flattening though - given it's only week 3 of a fairly soft lockdown, I think it's all we could really hope to see - hopefully it will slow down more next week.

The airports have been operating as normal, with no checks or quarantine on people coming in

Is this true?? I'm not resident in the UK at the moment...haven't been for a couple of years but can't quite believe this!

Is no one else aware that the premise of the OP is inaccurate?!

OP, we are beginning to see the curve flatten. It's happening but it's like turning a cruise liner. You won't see the effects in a satisfying way for a while.

over 70s have surely been told to stay in

no they haven't

Article in Guardian saying 100s flock to park in London. I guess that's why

In a city of 8 million people, 100s walking through a park doesn't sound very many!

fortune no the airports are NOT operating as normal and I wish people would stop peddling this nonsense. As an example, 95% of Lufthansa planes have been grounded, I suspect BA is similar. Easyjet has grounded its entire fleet. Flybe went bust anyway.

There are a few people trickling home on repatriation flights, and otherwise it's freight. Airports are not busy and people are talking rubbish. Yesterday Southampton airport had one flight on its board when I looked at it.

Also, it’s about the number of people who were spreading it. At the beginning relatively few had it, and before lockdown were spreading it to (say 10) people each. And now more people have it but are spreading it to a smaller number (say 2) people each. Therefore the number of actual cases will still grow. It’s just that if we hadn’t had lockdown it would have been 5 x as much

Also seeing cases from the school spread.. Colleges, unis... Work... Transport, shops....

@0v9c99f9g9d939d9f9g9h8h; yes I agree, the whole premise is wrong; we must expect both deaths and cases to keep rising. The government haven’t shown us their model as they may frighten the horses.

over 70s have surely been told to stay in. So hardly surprising, tho very sad for young families staying in while the oldies flout they rules.

Both groups are allowed to go for a walk. It's only those with additional risk factors who must stay indoors 24/7.

Seems crazy that a 'call centre job can't be done at home

Tell me about it.

Key workers using public transport.

7-28 day lag on infection to symptoms.

Only a soft lockdown (compared to Italy or Greece) with generally good compliance from most, but a minority engaging in the worst types of non-compliance. Interesting that Germany has far less stringent lockdown policies (household visits are permitted in some states, park picnics permitted as long as distance is observed, etc.) but far lower rates of infection and mortality due to other policies initiated at an earlier stage (and a generally better resourced health infrastructure).

Lockdown was very slow to get established when it did start (remember pictures of people on public transport) and only after very high risk gatherings went ahead (e.g. Cheltenham Festival, but there were many other events too).

Essential work (quite rightly) includes a very large part of the economy that's generally invisible to most people. It's also had to extend to non-essential businesses taking up essential work to fill resourcing shortfalls (e.g. all these businesses turning to making PPE and ventilators). Social distancing and hygiene in many of these workplaces may not be as good as it could be.

Stubborn older people, youngsters in love, and middle-class "those rules are for other people" Karens.

From people like my neighbour who consider lockdown doesn't apply to them.

Is there a big spread from surfaces so for example even people staying home and sticking to the rules still run the risk of picking something up from a shopping trolley, gate, tin of beans in Tesco and so on. This is what gets me very worried to the point where I'm finding going shopping a big ordeal now.

fortune no the airports are NOT operating as normal and I wish people would stop peddling this nonsense

Thank you cologne! I agree

If a call centre job was that easy to do at home, there would be no massive call centres. The phone systems alone would be a nightmare to sort out. I don’t think it’s a case of the workers just using their landline or personal mobiles.

Don’t really see why Hinkley comes to mind as a contributing factor. Somerset hasn’t seen a significant number of cases or deaths.

There are less than a quarter of staff normally on site and huge precautions are being taken - 95% of the staff go to site by bus and each bus is less than a third full. All have temperatures checked before boarding and then before entering site. They have temperatures checked a further 2-3 times per day.

It’s probably safer going to work to ensure critical infrastructure continues than it is going to Tesco

I'm not sure lockdown is effective anyway. I think strict social distancing is effective and its a shame people wouldn't stick to that originally.

Lot of people are still working in factories, warehouses, supermarkets, power companies etc. Lots of people are still visiting supermarkets. Some people are flouting lockdown. Just imagine how many cases there would be if lockdown hadn't happened.