Covid-19 UK Vs India fatalities, I don't understand

[Thubten]

Dear All,
I'm finding the figures all very difficult to discern. Why are some countries infections/death figures so horrendous? Africa and India's figures are nowhere near as scary. Many people in India are living close together with no running water. You'd think the perfect grounds for spread but as of yesterday only 199 people had died in India. I just don't get it. What's going on?
(to be clear, long may the low death rates continue in those places).
Can NZ avoid it or will they just be infected once they open their borders? Is it as simple as closing till the worst of it is over? The virus will still exist, is it possible to avoid?

Maybe it’s a lack of testing in some countries?
I have heard it spreads less in hot countries also but not sure how true that is.

NZ are different they are managing the situation very well. Time will tell if they can keep it that way.

Failure to test, failure to report deaths
... statistics can't be trusted, especially from 3rd world countries who are likely struggling to source tests and where many may die at home without ever being seen.

I suspect that in many less developed countries, people will be dying before they can access medical care and their deaths won't be recorded as covid.

I suspect it's lack of testing and reporting, people being being spread out in huge rural areas.
However, there's always the tiny chance that vitamin D does help and they aren't deficient in it.

Thanks for replying.
The thing is Italy, Spain and France are all quite hot now too and have been for a few weeks now. It's baffling.

Yes definitely lack of testing and under-reporting.

I just read that NZ will not be opening up 'til vaccine has been found......

The reason is the virus has really only just arrived there (as well as lack of testing). The copious amounts of travel between China and Europe (and the US) means Africa and India are several weeks behind, in the same way UK is behind Italy by 2 weeks. Unfortunately I fear it will sweep through these India and Africa. I think both are trying to contain it with lockdowns etc, but Covid 19 is so infectious this is just a delaying tactic (though a necessary one).

Mark Twain: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'"

I think there is a lot of manipulation of figures going on.

The UK always has a bit of a colonialist attitude towards India and other similar countries, as exemplified by Oxbridge Jenny Harries' comment that the WHO advice was only for poor countries, not for Proper Countries like ours.
In fact India has a lot of experience in tackling epidemics, having eradicated polio, countered SARS, bird flu, swine flu etc. They never pursued a disastrous herd immunity plan and the had to do a 180 like the super smart UK government. They put into place a robust pandemic response early, going into lockdown at a stage when the superior British government was still encouraging people to go about their lives as normal, allowing Cheltenham festival and Champions League matches to go on as usual etc. In India they don't have doctors begging for PPE on Facebook unlike in the UK.
They've handled this much better than the British.

As I understand it in some of these places there’s very little to no medical care
It’s so very sad that people will die with no medical intervention at all.

I’m not even sure how deaths normally would get registered in such remote communities
Such a tragedy

Surely somewhere like Delhi would be horrendous. They have a huge pollution problem there too which apparently affects how you react to virus

Also travel? If you are poor you won't have travelled abroad and caught it, so in a poor area/country you are less likely to see it (I was wondering this recently about Ebola, whether it would have spread much worse if it had come from a developed country). Of course many in India are well off and do travel.

I wonder why more Indian doctors have died in the UK than in India...🙄

@Thubten

Where did you read about NZ not opening until Vaccine available? I am in NZ and have not heard that.

Populations in developing countries tend to have a younger demographic, which will give some protection. But balanced against this are the effects of undernourisment and underlying disease.

I guess no one in rural India is testing or will be counting deaths when it comes to it. And in many parts of Africa people live their whole lives without access to medical care, so will ever know what they die of. Also, I bet coronavirus makes you more vulnerable to malaria etc - it was very common in Nigeria for people with HIV to actually die of malaria, which marked HIV numbers in the official stats.

Anyway, dont think you need to envy them.

masked HIV numbers

The thing is Italy, Spain and France are all quite hot now too and have been for a few weeks now. It's baffling.

Deaths in those countries will be from people who contracted Coronavirus around mid-March... so even if temperature were a factor, it will take a while to work through in the figures.

Also travel? If you are poor you won't have travelled abroad and caught it, so in a poor area/country you are less likely to see it

It just means it happens less quickly, not that it won’t happen. People were generally far less mobile in the 14th century than the average person is in India today, but that didn’t stop
the Black Death.... it took a few years to spread from Asia and across Europe though.

India are testing people who have come into contact with known Covid-19 patients, and those with symptoms. They have a strict lockdown that is being enforced by police. They also have their finest young minds developing a 600 dollar ventilator which when successful will transform healthcare in developing countries

Under reporting 100%. The most at risk in slums in India have potentially never seen the inside of a hospital. As well as the huge rural population.

Same with Africa.

It's tragic, but this will be a reporting issue.

And India has just seen a mass exodus from the cities to the countryside as day labourers who cant work during shutdown were forced to return
to their home villages. Believe me the virus will reach every corner of the country.

I have heard it spreads less in hot countries also but not sure how true that is.

I really hope that’s true. It would also give respite here over the summer. (Perhaps this is one time we can be thankful for Global Warming!)