Covid-19 UK Vs India fatalities, I don't understand

[Thubten]

Dear All,
I'm finding the figures all very difficult to discern. Why are some countries infections/death figures so horrendous? Africa and India's figures are nowhere near as scary. Many people in India are living close together with no running water. You'd think the perfect grounds for spread but as of yesterday only 199 people had died in India. I just don't get it. What's going on?
(to be clear, long may the low death rates continue in those places).
Can NZ avoid it or will they just be infected once they open their borders? Is it as simple as closing till the worst of it is over? The virus will still exist, is it possible to avoid?

I’ve seen videos from Goa where police are beating people with canes if there yew out and in groups.
Can’t imagine that getting much traction here tbh.

It’s all well and good saying that they’re better at policing a lockdown, but would you find that acceptable?

One thing about India is lots people don’t survive into old age or with pre- existing medical issues. The population as a whole is likely younger and thinner too. I don’t know how it works TBH but hopefully this helps and they don’t get hit as hard.

NZ has handled things well but it really is also very different to most European countries.

The South Island has a few million people living in land as big as England. Outside of Christchurch and maybe Dunedin there isnt many places with significant amounts of people so it's a lot easier to isolate any cases.

The Telegraph (I think) ran a report on this a couple of weeks ago. In India, there is a religious culture of a a lot of ritual washing, which they attributed to reducing the speed of passing on the infection.

I dont think any amount of ritual washing will be able to stop it spreading via breath plumes where people live in such large households and at high density.

Half of all deaths in the UK are in the over 85s. India has a lower proportion of elderly. They probably also have fewer people living with serious underlying conditions. This should mean a lower mortality rate.

On the other hand, the lockdown in India could cause many deaths as people have no income.

Hot as in temperature?
I'm in southern Italy and have got 2 wool cardies on and the heating.
Won't be hot here until another month or so.

A strong immune system as there's a lot more viruses and bacteria around at the best of time?

Realistically though they are a few weeks behind.

This virus has not spread through the regular channels of dirty water and the like. It's been spread via ski trips, foreign holidays, air travel and conferences so it will take a little time to percolate down to the slums.

I only hope that the peak summer 40 plus degrees will slow it down then.

I was wondering about -not heat- but UV light

@redbushtea

• Mark Twain: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'"

I think there is a lot of manipulation of figures going on.* can I ask what you mean by this and by who? I’m interested

NZ will approach bankruptcy as a nation and be forced to reopen. NZ will then suffer the pandemic as well as deep, deep financial trouble. NZ never properly recovered from the loss of the UK as a major market (when the UK joined the EU) or the crash of 1987. Unless a vaccine turns up...basically now...I fear for them.

Indian states and many countries in Africa simply don't have the testing and monitoring capabilities and central governance necessary to accurately collate and report figures at this point. Sadly, their "excess deaths" will tell the story later.

Some posts seem to imply that if It is bad in the UK, it must be worse for other countries!!

Only time will tell but a few reasons:

1. Test and treat
2. Contact tracing
3. Universal BCG vaccination which has shown to have a protective effect in some studies ( early days though)
4. Less bureaucracy and frontline workers getting good PPE. Also experience of making do with lesser resources on average and more willingness to work in innovative ways
5. Experience of working through TB programmes and similar mean good public health networks in place.
6. Believe it or not, better concept of’ not touching your face and washing your hands’
7. Younger population
8. Technology already being harnessed to develop new IT and other equipment

Remember just four weeks ago, people in the UK were still being encouraged by the government to keep attending mass sporting events, pop concerts, attend race meetings and run city marathons. Common sense, never mind lockdown, came into play a good 3-4 weeks too late. Did Britain think it would be different somehow?

@GetTheSprinkles so same as the Uk then?
We’re not testing and not counting deaths in the community or care homes.

There is a theory that bcg vaccines might help and potentially ARV drugs.

Also places in Africa (like South Africa) shut down far before the Uk did.

just lack of testing. New Zealand is in a position where their throughput of international travellers is way down on a world scale. Their prime minister did the right thing, by shutting borders quite early and she seems to be quite a good leader. Smaller more spread out population. They haven't done anything better than anyone else however, their testing isn't high, just it's easier to close borders there than in the eu or the us.

Seriously hate the ignorant generalisations about Africa. Africa is a huge continent with many different countries. Not all Africans are living in tin huts with poor sanitation. Fucking hell!

@lookingformybrain each to their own. Personally I find the denial of the vast amount if poverty and inequality in sub-Saharan Africa really offensive.

@FiveShelties
amp-rnz-co-nz.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.rnz.co.nz/article/fb7292e9-f381-4876-b5b5-0b83f683d2d2?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15865999567073&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rnz.co.nz%2Fnews%2Fnational%2F412117%2Fcoronavirus-control-measures-for-covid-19-needed-until-we-ve-got-a-vaccine

The uk are well known for being sticklers for rules ( queuing, taking turns, health and safety etc) we are probably seeing far more accurate representation of what is happening even if we don’t believe it.
We have seen a great deal of cover up around the world. Our government don’t appear to have covered up the severity of the situation and by allowing accurate, and transparent reporting of figures, maybe even manipulating them to reinforce the message rather than underplay it they may ultimately end up with a better outcome.

Watching Trump yesterday underplay the figures was embarrassing. He tried to convince the US that they were on the downward slope. It was a garbled message delivered by an idiot.

The quote re statistics is the mantra of statisticians because you can prove or disprove anything using statistics. They are used to calculate probability. And can be incredibly accurate but at the same time cannot be relied on due to the multiple factors they are based on.
The uk may see a relatively high death rate because we are very good at keeping our sick elderly alive. The result of a free healthcare system. In most countries where healthcare is paid for at point of use geriatric medicine is dependent on funds/insurance so the healthy elderly outlive the unhealthy elderly.

Many people in India live in the countryside and probably have little access to medical treatment. Many have probably died but not counted. The cities are huge and have millions of really poor people who also will not be counted

@Porcupineinwaiting
Africa is majority world

@TheCanterburyWhales
Looks like S. Italy is in low 20s. That's quite warm if you live in Scotland ;-)

@Thubten

Many thanks for link, I am very pleased to read that is not official guidance.

Thubten

Exactly. Completely unaffordable.
I just hope that at the end of this NZ doesn't find itself in a position where it needs to take development loans from China. Other Pacific Island nations have been severely compromised by these loans.

Lookingformybrain. We have visited many African countries, many millions do live in shacks in the countryside and do not have access to medical treatment. South Africa has huge shanty towns all over, including close to places like Cape Town. Deaths are unlikely to be recorded in such places