Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

I too would like more accuate info on admissions and icu rates. They show the graph on the updates quickly but I cant find them after and more detail would be useful. I track these in france and find them very useful.

Ahhhh thanks. I'm not on that board but I'm very vocal where necessary about feminism and womans rights and also disability rights!

Place marking. This thread is my little piece of sanity. Thank you to everyone who is researching and a big thanks to Barracker for the volcano chart and updates in particular!

@Humphriescushion

This looks like it
www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-9-april-2020

Thanks for those Chaz, I can never see enough with the quick glance at the telly.

I worry that the number of admissions and the number of patients in critical care are going up daily, and few seem to be leaving. I know Boris was only in CCU for 2 nights, but he wasn't intubated (apparently) - those who are, seem to stay for a long time.

ICUs are full (we know they are in London, hence opening Nightingale). Extensions to the extensions are full in some hospitals. People are no longer admitted from care homes, people are sent home if their symptoms aren't "bad enough" so I don't think we can say that admissions going down is necessarily a good sign.

Thanks Chaz sometimes they even forget to put them on the screen for viewers.

I think the reported mortalities will be affected by the Easter weekend.

And sadly, I think we will see more deaths amongst NHS staff, and social care workweeks.

We don't seem to be moving forward significantly with testing - it's very limited where I work (only if you are deemed critical within your team, your manager authorises it & you are within 72hrs of starting symptoms). So effectively, we are not being tested & I can't see that changing any time soon.

It looks like we will end up with more than 1000 deaths for the 8th of April death date. Probable peak?!

The reporting system mean the reports and deaths don't peak at the same time.

Spreadsheet: gofile.io/?c=iQOXmq

@Humphriescushion

I can't copy this fully but this
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview#
has inpatient nos as a graph and by region .

@BearSoFair

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

has some stats by nos ( 1 million ) of population

That is one hell of a spreadsheet perdito. I think I need a glass of for that one.

Thanks @ChazsBrilliantAttitude

I understand that admissions from care homes are being accepted, but only by those who wish to be taken in. I know from many sets of elderly relatives, that they all have advance directives, and none of them would choose to die in hospital. I think perhaps, sadly, or perhaps it is better, depending on your views, that if prognosis is bad, more people are deciding to die at home.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/coronavirus-mutates-three-types-experts-21845957

This is interesting.

It may help explain why the response and controls aren't having the same impact elsewhere and variants in death related etc.

980!

Thanks as well @peridito

Newaccount it is isn't it ?

I started checking it when it didn't have quite so many entries but it'd been expanded .

It's not updated as fast as it used to be - I guess because there is now so muchto gather and enter .But I'm a bit worried that the person doing it is unwell with the virus

It's laughable me looking at it as I have -0 numeracy skills .But I do find percentages helpful .

The briefing graphs differ greatly from the recent ft analysis.

we have now moved up into 7th place on the worldometer page. Overtaken Iran.

Place marking

Haplap - I think the briefing graphs are now counting from when each country passed 50 deaths, cos it looks better...

They were using 10 until about 10 days ago when we shot up over Italy's line.

If you look at the below, it does seem that the U.K. is testing more each day. The latest date I can see is 5th April. If anyone knows a more up-to-date record I would be curiouS.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.statista.com/chart/amp/21316/people-tested-covid-19-uk/

Given that the absolute number of positive tests has been stable, I would have thought we should have peaked in new case numbers.

If you believe the lockdown was a success (as I do) the peak of new administrations should have been 4th April (incubation mean 5 days, hospital admission and testing day 7 of disease). The peak death would be about 15 th April (admission +11 days).

It will be messy but this, to me, broadly squares with what we are seeing. There is no mechanistic reason for a much later peak and I suspect the data, when viewed retrospectively, will support these types of peaks.

Larry that's a good analysis and has been supported largely some some models. They have said peak will be in next week and then we should start to see some decrease.

Haplap
The briefing graph is cumulative deaths and the FT is daily deaths.

Hopefully numbers will start to drop after next week. 980 is dreadful. There's something about it being so close to 1000. I was really shocked when we hit 950 in Spain.