Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

@chazsbrilliant
Yes, sorry I worded that wrongly. I know it won't get rid of cv, it seems terrifying that with so many people losing their lives, the possibility of 'going back to normal', with no cure is unreal. Until a vaccine has been tried and tested and that could take ages. I work in a school, but off because of asthma, so scary to think that at some point everyone will be expected to go back to normal - whatever that is.

Lockdown is not going to get rid of CV it is just stopping the NHS drowning. There is a real concern about a second wave

Yes and it would be good to get a sense of how many have already had it. Still lagging on this info.

I can’t see the way out atm. We will use the extra NHS capacity and push through the numbers after this restriction ends. Maybe slowed a bit with some restriction hopefully.

I'm not sure they are, Barracker. Trusts used to email their staff with daily updates, but that stopped around ten days ago (according to anyone I know).

Shoots, I'm not sure it'll be the 8th. Weren't the 9th and 10th higher, and higher again looking at the "volcano".

coronade, it is good news if they only need 21 beds. It's less good news if they can only staff 21 beds; I hope it's the former.

I am wondering if the 31st March is a year end. It’s similar to the tax year. Did they close the accounts at midnight?

The only way out that I can see before vaccine is testing and contact tracing. The testing capacity absolutely needs to be massively increased.

@IamHyouweegobshite
Yes you are right. Normal might be a way off.

@Sostenueto

You said the same yesterday that there was a cover up and the number would be definitely be over 20,000 now. We asked for your source on this and you didn’t provide. Do you have one today seeing as you have said again that there is over 20,000 deaths in the UK? As that does not tie in with anything even including the ONS data?

@Al1Langdownthecleghole the lag is there but it always has been - there are deaths reported every day after death for 10 days, and some beyond that (though no longer daily)

You get about 15% of the deaths reported day 1, 40% day 2, then a bigger number to day 1 on day 3, but that will vary either way depending on the day of the week of day 1, so day 2 will be smaller if the day of death was Saturday and then day 3 bigger. But day 2 is always peak day for reports.

If we look at Good Friday's deaths, the daily reports were

Friday 115
Saturday 308
Sunday 93
Monday 63
Tuesday 27

It's likely that Wednesday will be well below Tuesday and then you get a fairly long tail of 2to 5 daily reports relating to last Friday

At any rate it's clear that Wednesday is not going to come back with say 50 more deaths from Friday

@Barracker
NHS stats run from April - March
www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/01/Proposed-12-month-plan-for-2019-20-14-January-2020-1.pdf

I wonder if that is why 31st March is out of line

We get current number of patients with C-19 (daily) and deaths every week. So far it has tallied with official reports but that is weekly and numbers here are relatively low (single figures each day)

Here's some good facts/figures from Scotland: there's clarity about data, nursing home deaths & individual health boards.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52214177

@loobyloo1234 I think it is abundantly clear that with over 12k NHS deaths then the ONS stats will reflect more than 20k to this point. So saying we have more than 20k deaths already is more like stating the obvious than anything controversial.

There were 6k 'excess deaths' in latest weekly ONS deaths report, of which around 3100 (just over half) appeared in the official covid-19 death reports, the rest presumably care homes, and possibly a small element not getting necessary medical care for other conditions and dying.

So with over 12k official deaths then 20k is a very low estimate for actual deaths.

@Barracker I found this for Addenbrookes

www.cuh.nhs.uk/news/communcations/covid-19-weekly-update-7-april-2020

I'll check the other hospitals in the East of England & update you.

I am very sorry for your loss @AI1Langdownthecleghole

I’m also still interested in this initial study on how long we see a positive test after initial infection.

Are hospitals reporting deaths based on likelihood of CV19 or do you need that positive test?

Also the govt are very quiet re the small antibody test run.

Feel like we are struggling to know enough, still.

Just a final note on Germany v. England (UK). I have a lot of German friends. The Germans are very proactive with their health. They go for regular checks up, whether needed or not, and are always well ahead of the curve on getting treatment. I would say the British are rather more reticent about "bothering" with health issues, and I do therefore wonder if we are, as someone upthread mentioned, just seeing a marked difference in people presenting too late with symptoms here, whereas in Germany they would present at a much earlier phase. All my German friends go back to Germany every year to get full check ups/MOT's for example.

In contrast, and another health anomoly between countries, in Italy, the health service was overwhelmed by very old people being admitted from care homes, and intubated, with no prospect of survival. Here we seem to be allowing/encouraging the very old to remain at home or in their care homes, to pass away. This is not necessarily a bad thing, depending on you point of view, but many will have decided they don't want to go into hospital and receive aggressive treatment with little prospect of survival. All four of my elderly relatives have decided on "no heroic measures".

@NewAccountForCorona do you mean this one www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports? It goes up to 10 April, not sure if it's new since the one you have already seen.

I looked on my local hospital's website, no data whatsoever, but I did find a floor plan, it looks as though all purple areas are for covid-19 patients. This is a large hospital which includes a & e, maternity, cancer and heart units. It's seriously worrying to see so many wards and areas of the hospital coloured purple.

Sorry, link didn't work.

What are everyone's thoughts on 'exit strategy' options?

South Korea seem to be doing really well - cases down to 27 today, and 3 deaths. This is in a population of similar size to the UK. Could the UK achieve the same with similar aggressive testing regime / track and trace? Or are there other fundamental features of SK that account for this success, which we could not hope to emulate here?

I've been keeping an eye on Sweden too. I want to say (very tentatively) that they are plateauing - at the very least they don't seem to be getting exponential growth. So, a similar pattern to UK, albeit with much lower numbers. Presumably, having done so very little in the way of social distancing, they are not now at risk of a second peak...? Or am I missing something?

Yes, I think that's the same source thanks azaleanth; the one I had was up to the 4th of April.

I will have a really good look at that tonight, thank you.

South Korea has an app on everyone's phone showing where they are going, who they are meeting. Anyone who shows symptoms hands over their phones so everyone who has been anywhere near them in the previous ten days is contacted, isolated and tested.

I simply can't see people in the UK, or other European countries, putting up with the level of surveillance South Korea is using.

Sweden's numbers don't look so good compared to Norway; in addition they have better healthcare so "protecting" their UCU beds wasn't as important.

@clarexbp I’ve been wondering the same.

Is it too late to try and emulate S.Korea? We should definitely be testing more and I’m all for contact tracing but on another thread many people were worried about privacy. I’d quite happily be tracked and traced but we’d need the population to be willing:

Sweden is interesting. I guess we’ll only know when all this is over whether they went for the short sharp hit as their healthcare system could cope. Then they may avoid second and third waves of this with their economy (and therefore healthcare system) in tact. They’ll be through it and we’ll be dealing with future lockdowns and more peaks?

@Baaaahhhhh I think you have a point in that in Germany people go to the dr sooner, but I don't think it is limited to individuals.
As @BigChocFrenzy pointed out we have heard from a lot of mumsnetters (including me) who have tried to seek medical help early ish and been actively turned away as not being critical yet and therefore deemed not in need of help. It's not just individuals choosing to do this, it's that our entire NHS coronavirus response has been set up on the basic principle that you shouldnt seek/get help until you're seriously unwell.
I hope they change this or we will see the damage in the statistics. Or maybe we won't, because people impacted by this system will be dying at home so not counted in the daily toll.

Coronavirus/ COVID-19 updates
09 April 2020
Update 15 April

Sadly, we can confirm that five patients who were being cared for at the James Paget University Hospital, and had tested positive for COVID-19, have died. The patients who died were four men in their 80s, two of whom had underlying health conditions; and a man in his 70s, who had underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed and our thoughts and condolences are with them at this difficult and distressing time.

Update 14 April

Sadly, we can confirm that three patients who were being cared for at the James Paget University Hospital, and had tested positive for COVID-19, have died. All three were men – two in their 70s and one in his 80s – and had underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed and our thoughts and condolences are with them at this difficult and distressing time.

Update 13 April

Sadly, we can confirm that three patients who were being cared for at the James Paget University Hospital, and had tested positive for COVID-19, have died. One was a man in his 80s and a man and a woman in their 70s, all with underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed and our thoughts and condolences are with them at this difficult and distressing time.

Update 12 April

Sadly, we can confirm that two patients who were being cared for at the James Paget University Hospital, and had tested positive for COVID-19, have died. One was a woman in 90s and the other was a man in his 50s, both with underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed and our thoughts and condolences are with them at this difficult and distressing time.

Update 11 April

Sadly, we can confirm that a woman who was being cared for at the James Paget University Hospital, and had tested positive for COVID-19, has died. The patient was in her 70s and had underlying health conditions. Their family has been informed and our thoughts and condolences are with them at this difficult and distressing time.

Update 10 April

Sadly, we can confirm that six patients who were being cared for at the James Paget University Hospital, and had tested positive for COVID-19, have died. The patients who died were a woman in her 80s; a woman in her 70s; a woman in her 60s; a man in his 80s; a man in his 70s; and a man in his 50s. All six patients had underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed and our thoughts and condolences are with them at this difficult and distressing time.

Update 9 April

Sadly, we can confirm that two patients who were being cared for at the James Paget University Hospital, and had tested positive for COVID-19, have died. The patients who died were a woman in her 90s and a man in his 80s. Both had underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed and our thoughts and condolences are with them at this difficult and distressing time.

Update 7 April

Sadly, we can confirm that four patients who were being cared for at the James Paget University Hospital, and had tested positive for COVID-19, have died. The patients who died were a woman in her 90s; a man in his 90s; a man in his 80s and a man in his 50s. All four patients had underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed and our thoughts and condolences are with them at this difficult and distressing time.

Update 6 April

Sadly, we can confirm that four patients who were being cared for at the James Paget University Hospital, and had tested positive for COVID-19, have died. The patients who died were a woman in her 90s; a woman in her 80s; a woman in her 50s and a man in his 80s. All four patients had underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed and our thoughts and condolences are with them at this difficult and distressing time.

Update 5 April

Sadly, we can confirm that one patient who was being cared for at the James Paget University Hospital, and had tested positive for COVID-19, has died. The patient who died was a woman in her 70s with underlying health conditions. Their family has been informed and our thoughts and condolences are with them at this difficult and distressing time.

Update 4 April

Sadly, we can confirm that three patients who were being cared for at the James Paget University Hospital, and had tested positive for COVID-19, have died. The patients who died were a man in his 60s and a man and woman in their 70s. All three patients had underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed and our thoughts and condolences are with them at this difficult and distressing time.

Update 3 April

Sadly, we can confirm that three patients who were being cared for at the James Paget University Hospital, and had tested positive for COVID-19, have died. The patients who died were a man in his 90s; a woman in her 80s; and a man in his 70s. All three patients had underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed and our thoughts and condolences are with them at this difficult and distressing time.

Update 2 April

Sadly, we can confirm that a woman who was being cared for at the James Paget University Hospital, and had tested positive for COVID-19, has died. The patient was in her 80s and had underlying health conditions. Her family has been informed and our thoughts and condolences are with them at this difficult and distressing time.

Update 1 April

Sadly, we can confirm that two patients who were being cared for at the James Paget University Hospital, and had tested positive for COVID-19, have died. The patients who died were a woman in her 80s and a man in his 70s. Both had underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed and our thoughts and condolences are with them at this difficult and distressing time.

Update 31 March

Sadly, we can confirm that two patients who were being cared for at the James Paget University Hospital, and had tested positive for COVID-19, have died. The patients who died were a woman in her 90s and a man in his 70s. Both had underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed and our thoughts and condolences are with them at this difficult and distressing time.

Update 29 March

Sadly, we can confirm that a man who was being cared for at the James Paget University Hospital, and had tested positive for COVID-19, has died. The patient was in his 80s and had underlying health conditions. His family has been informed and our thoughts and condolences are with them at this difficult and distressing time.

The trust will not be giving out any further information on this patient

The media are asked to respect the wishes of the family and the interests of staff at the hospital to avoid any disruption to operational services.