Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

I wonder why the press (to my knowledge) haven’t picked up on the fact that the UK’s 980 deaths today is a higher daily toll than that if any day in Italy or Spain?

Might make the idiots out there who are flouting the rules take stock.

@ChazsBrilliantAttitude both say they are rolling averages, 3 days for briefing graph and 7 for ft?

Yes, I'm surprised by that, seeing as there was so much talk about how terrible it was in Spain and Italy.

Gato,

I suspect our higher death toll is a function of population demographic and baseline health plus the desire to keep public transport running in cities. In addition I suspect the City of London is still staffing trading floors at 25-50%, still enough to spread disease within the community and beyond it.

I really doubt there is much transmission going on through people popping out to the supermarket too often or the odd sit down on a park bench.

Do you think peak will come before April 17th?

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * Good Friday, APRIL 10th

Total UK cases: 73,758
New UK cases: 5,706
Total UK Deaths: 8,958
New UK Deaths: 980

Larry I agree that - tragic though the UK numbers are - they are not as bad as some predictions, e.g. IHME, where the UK has been below their curve for a few days now

The original Imperial estimate for lockdown was 20,000 deaths, but PHE have since said 50,000 is worst case

If we end up with 25,000 - 40,000 then that is "acceptable" / "manageable" as a country
< my apologies to everyone if I sound callous and horrible >

But.... managing COVID is a long process, not an event

What is concerning is that avoiding a far far greater death toll - in nearly all developed countries - was only achieved via a lockdown that is not sustainable economically or psychologically until the vaccine

We have to hope that cases do indeed drop to near-zero over summer, so that schools & the economy can be restarted and people can get out to relax & enjoy themselves

The 2nd wave may last 6 months through Autumn & winter, needing restrictions again of some kind, maybe cycles of them

• IF we have some effective anti-virals etc for CV by then, that would be a game-changer, but no real signs yet

Then of course the concerns raised that mild cases are not producing sufficient antibodies,
which may cause problems in developing the vaccine,
as well as herd immunity maybe being very short-term

The Uk, France, Germany are predicted to have GDP falls of 6-15% this year,
even without any additional lockdown in a 2nd winter wave

That makes it very difficult to have a 2nd lockdown

• probably many governments will be examining Sweden's results with limited measures and deciding whether that is thinkable after all in their own countries

Ah, IHME have updated the UK forecast to "only" 37,000 deaths now, with peak still around 17 April, which is the date on other foreacsts

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

Just poking my nose in from Iceland - it looks like we are probably just getting over our peak, a little earlier than predicted. Which is brilliant and I'm so happy with the response here.

I think that widespread testing and contact tracing is really the most effective way to slow down the spread of the virus, better than a really harsh lockdown.

The current restrictions are in place until 4 May, by which point I'm really optimistic the worst will be well and truly behind us.

www.covid.is/data

.

Thanks for the new thread

Place marking. Thanks all for your stats and graphs

Marking place....

This article does compare the UK figures to Italy and Spain Coronavirus: 980 dead in UK hospitals in deadliest day of pandemic yet

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/coronavirus-uk-deadliest-day-deaths-announced?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copiar_en_el_portapapeles

Has anyone done a comparison with Italy recently? Was it FATE doing them before?

Also placemarking, sorry it's annoying.

Did I just hear on R2 news that our total deaths today is higher than any single day recorded by Italy or Spain? .

Does anyone know when the care home deaths are added? They aren't included in today's figures so I'd guess we are well over 1000 already.

Tuesdays I read

In addition I suspect the City of London is still staffing trading floors at 25-50%

No, I wouldn’t assume that at all. The household name investment bank I work for has less than 5% staff left on the trading floor. There are a number of options for many (obviously not all) kinds of trading jobs to be done from secondary, smaller, non city based disaster recovery sites and from home. The culture and technology shifts I’ve seen in the last month are quite unbelievable.

Today's volcano chart:

For those who are new to this chart, the blue volcano is deaths from NHS England allocated to the actual timestamped day they occurred.
The orange bars are the announced data we are used to receiving each day for the UK; these deaths mostly did not occur all in the previous 24 hours, rather, this tally is comprised of data that is spread over several weeks.
The blue bars relate to the England portion of the daily announcements.

Each day, more data is retrospectively allocated to the correct day, until we have the full picture.
For example, the data for March is now pretty reliably complete. This part of the volcano, to the left of the marker, will not change, and represents the true trajectory.
Data from April continues to build day on day, and is not yet the final picture.

@BearSoFair

Not sure if it's what you want but the bbc website has corona figures by area, so if you put a postcode in it will give you a choice of the local councils then when you submit it'll tell you how many deaths in that area and what the population is.

Not sure if the link will work but;

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

In addition I suspect the City of London is still staffing trading floors at 25-50%, still enough to spread disease within the community and beyond it.

Really? Are some non-essential workers in the UK still going to work?

@AbsentmindedWoman

I know a couple of family members who work in industries which are certainly not essential but can apparently maintain social distancing.

Influenza season is pretty much over in the US, earlier than usual, thanks to the lockdown