Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

We couldn't emulate SK with the phone tracking and still reopen schools surely? Entire schools of staff and pupils would be constantly quarantined whenever one person came down with it.

The 30 the appears to be missing. This is local hospital nearest to me.

This is an interesting article about Sweden www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/sweden-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-1000

It suggests that they have been actually doing a lot of social distancing (50% of people working from home, traffic down by 70%) and that their demographic with high numbers of single person households and low population density may have slowed cases.

The fact that they haven't closed restaurants, shops or their equivalent of primary schools may suggest that these things have a limited impact on transmission. Or possibly that a decrease in usage has had similar effects to mandatory closures.

Their economy certainly has not escaped unscathed and I think it's very unlikely that if they've got relatively low levels of infection that enough people will have caught the virus to prevent later waves if they go back to 'normal'.

I think some of the telephone triage is patchy at the moment. I've heard of young people who are blue and can't speak in sentences being sent to a primary care hub for assessment instead of being blue lighted in.

I find it frustrating because i'm an ex-medic and have volunteered as a returner and would be happy to telephone triage but I've not heard anything for weeks, since I filled in the forms.

These are figures from nearest city to me

Update on 15 April

We can confirm that sadly, two patients who were being cared for at the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital, and had tested positive for COVID-19, have died.
The patients who died were a man and a woman, both were in their late 80s and had underlying health conditions.

Update on 14 April

We can confirm that sadly, five patients who were being cared for at the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital, and had tested positive for COVID-19, have died.
The patients who died were two women in their 90s, another woman in her 80s and two men, one in his 40s and one in his 60s. All of these patients had underlying health conditions.

Update on 13 April

We can confirm that sadly, four patients who were being cared for at the Norfolk and Norwich University, and had tested positive for COVID-19, have passed away.
The patients were a man and two women in their 90’s, and a woman in her 70’s. All had underlying conditions. Our thoughts and condolences go out to their families and loved ones at this difficult time.

Update on 12 April

We can confirm that sadly, one patient who was being cared for at the Norfolk and Norwich University, and had tested positive for COVID-19, has passed away. The patient was a man in his 40s with underlying conditions.

Update on 11 April

We can confirm that sadly, three patients who were being cared for at the Norfolk and Norwich University, and had tested positive for COVID-19, have passed away. The patients were two men in the 70s and one man in his 80s. All had underlying conditions.

Update on 9 April

We can confirm that four patients have sadly died at the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital who had tested positive for Covid-19. A woman in her 90s, man in his 80s, woman in her 70s and man in his 60s with underlying conditions have passed away.

Update on 8 April

We can confirm that sadly, a woman in her 70s with underlying health conditions has passed away at the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital. She had tested positive for Covid-19

Update on 7 April

We can confirm that sadly, a woman in her 80s, who had underlying conditions, has passed away at the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital. She had tested positive for Covid-19.

Update on 6 April

We can confirm that sadly, five patients who were being cared for at the Norfolk and Norwich University, and had tested positive for COVID-19, have passed away.

The patients were a man in his 90s, a woman in her 90s, two men in their 80s and a woman in her 70s, who all had underlying conditions.

Update on 5 April
Sadly we can confirm that four patients who were being cared for at the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital, and had tested positive for COVID-19, have died.

The patients were a female in her 70s, a male in his 80s, a female in her 90s and a patient aged over 100 years. All the patients had underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed.

Update on 4 April
Sadly we can confirm that two patients who were being cared for at the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital, and had tested positive for COVID-19, have died.

The patients who died were two men, both in their 70s. Both had underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed.

Update on 3 April
Sadly we can confirm that four patients who were being cared for at the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital, and had tested positive for Covid-19, have died.

The patients who died were two men in their 80s with underlying health conditions, another man in his late 60s, also with underlying health conditions and a woman in her late 60s, with underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed.

Update on 2 April
Sadly we can confirm that three patients who were being cared for at the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital, and had tested positive for Covid-19, have died.

The patients who died were a man in his 50s with no underlying health conditions. The other two patients who died were both male; one in his 90s and one in their 70s. Both had underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed.

Update on 1 April
Sadly we can confirm that two patients who were being cared for at the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital, and had tested positive for Covid-19, have died.

The patients who died were a man in his 70s and a woman in her 80s. Both had underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed.

Update on 31 March
Sadly we can confirm that two patients who were being cared for at the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital, and had tested positive for Covid-19, have died.

The patients who died were both male, one in his 80s and one in their 90s. Both had underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed.

Update on 31 March
Sadly we can confirm that a patient who was being cared for at the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital, and had tested positive for Covid-19, has died.

The patient who died was a man in his mid 80s with no underlying health conditions. His family has been informed.

Update on 28 March
Sadly we can confirm that two patients who were being cared for at the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital, and had tested positive for Covid-19, have died.

The patients who died were a woman in her 90s and a man in his 80s. Both had underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed.

Update on 27 March
Sadly we can confirm that two patients who were being cared for at the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital, and had tested positive for Covid-19 have died.

The patients who died were a woman in her 90s and a man in his 80s. Both had underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed.

Update on 24 March
We can confirm that sadly, a man in their 50s, who had underlying health conditions, has passed away at the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital. They had tested positive for Covid-19.

Our thoughts and sincere condolences are with all the families at this difficult and distressing time.

You cam only emulate South Korea if you get the number of actual cases low enough so that you can test anyone who might possibly need it

And yes, that would mean sometimes whole schools closing until all pupils and staff could be tested

Again no 30th march. Hope these figures are useful.

I've tried to gather the data for the acute trusts in the East of England, this doesn;t include community hospitals or mental health units. Some data is from trust websites and some from local press.

According to today's data, hospitalised numbers are down 1% across the UK and 5% in London in the last 24 hours. Sadly this will be partly due to patients dying, however it does also suggest that new cases are starting to fall. That's got to be good news.

To clarify, by hospitalised numbers I mean the number of covid patients in hospital.

German hospital doctors interviewed keep banging on about how important it is to bring in cases as soon as there are breathing problems, to avoid ever needing ICU.

Interestingly, the Italian experience of early hospitalisations shows something different:

www.ft.com/content/9c75d47f-49ee-4613-add1-a692b97d95d3

In summary, Italian virologists believe that Veneto was much more successful at managing COVID-19 outbreak than the nearby Lombardy by trying to minimise hospital admissions. Italian hospitals in Lombardy became main sources of COVID-19 transmission while the outbreak in Veneto remained under control.

It appears that Germany is extremely efficient at both providing timely hospital care and minimising/eliminating the risk of hospital transmissions but hospitalising more patients on its own does not come risk free.

If we don't need the Nightingale ICU capacity currently, can it not be easily repurposed to have, for example, these Mercedes F1/UCL 10,000 new CPAP machines in them instead so more people can have early oxygen treatment there? Like Boris got. Rather than keeping people at home until they are critically ill and needing a ventilator. Might significantly help survival rates, and keep people away from hospitals.

That's a good idea. I was encouraged that the govt delayed commissioning the newly designed ventilators because of the experience of people working in ITUs snd the move towards less invasive respiratory support.

Obviously it could be disorganisation- but I'm going to look on the bright side!

If we don't need the Nightingale ICU capacity currently, can it not be easily repurposed to have, for example, these Mercedes F1/UCL 10,000 new CPAP machines in them instead so more people can have early oxygen treatment there? Like Boris got. Rather than keeping people at home until they are critically ill and needing a ventilator. Might significantly help survival rates, and keep people away from hospitals.

Yes, I think this would potentially be a gamechanger.

Having read about German experience I’d feel much more comfortable with that too.

BigChoc I’ve found your insights really good, do you know how they measure when to intervene? Is it symptom based or do they do an oxygen reading? Or other

Because we’d need a way to know too.

@PearPickingPorky if only someone somewhere was reading this & could do something about it

It does seem an obvious use for the extra beds. All the people who are meant to be self-treating at home but are bloody sick. And surely better to have them there, keep a close eye, move the ones who need it to ICU in a controlled way rather than doing nothing then bluelighting.

Where's barracker, we need a new thread

.

Didn't the BBC have a news item that the F1 maclaren cpaps were unsuitable for Covid patients though, so would not be followed up on?

I don’t think they would want to bring together lots of covid patients to give early care as they might become iller if exposed to each other. I know they already have covid but would be breathing in each other’s germs and might become worse as a result.

Will they not start using the Nightingale and start treating the cancelled ops. I know my ex is still in a lot of pain with his kidneys but had his op cancelled.

So it's taken
4w to grow,
4w of lockdown to grown further and peak
But there will still i imagine be a lot of people ventilated or on oxygen.

I imagine they are not ventilating the 80/90yo due to frailty. But anyway only 50/50 at most of recovery.

Surely we wont go straight back to normal after about 3w?. As the cases will rocket again surely surpress for a while so the next peak isnt so soon.
I find it hard to believe they didnt use all icu they had. Tbh with such high comparative deaths the definitely need to look at this. A more gradual peak wouldnt have lost as many - some died at home through lack of oxygen - young people who statistically should have survived

WhyNot what a shame

I believe that F1 were involved with developing a number of different devices - the Red Bull/F1 ventilators were unsuitable but the Maclaren/F1 CPAP machines were approved.

I think it was always the plan that the Nightingale hospitals wouldn't get the very sickest patients, because the rest of the hospital infrastructure that you need with these patients would not be there.