Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

But they don't tell you how many died on a particular day.

4 died of Covid yesterday in our local hospital and 25 during week. So can't see only 117 deaths across whole of England yesterday! Think Government should tell truth then perhaps peeps will stay indoors!

Agree that FT has some of the best factual stories. Also some interesting articles in the spectator

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.spectator.co.uk/article/dont-be-deceived-by-covid-stats-we-know-a-lot-less-than-the-numbers-suggest/amp

www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-to-understand-and-report-figures-for-covid-19-deaths-

The virus had a toehold in London much earlier than elsewhere, which explains the earlier rise in infections and deaths. It’s anecdata, but we had people from work sent to self isolate in early/mid February as they had been at a conference in Central London where someone was diagnosed with Covid19. So I know both that the virus was here then, and that attempts were made to track and trace contacts at that early stage. I believe other areas are some weeks behind that. I might fire up my laptop and try to find the exact date.

Just blantantly marking my place before I go back and read everyone's amazing insights.

Bird im really pleased it sounds like Spain has turned a corner.

There was another good 'more or less' programme on the way the statistics work this week - radio 4.

Personally I would try to ignore the daily deaths as reported. The reality comes with the weekly ONS data, which is sweeping up all deaths for everything, including care home and community deaths, and picking out the deaths from Covid, or where Covid was present, which are two different things, and comparing them with the rolling average for the last 5 years.

I think the most reliable indicator, bearing in mind our lack of testing, is the actual hospital admissions, and numbers in ICU. These are being reported, but don't make the headlines. A few doctors on TV and I think in a couple of news conferences have indicated that those figures are falling in London, so that may be a positive indicator if it continues.

These threads are a daily read for me, so informative. Thanks so much to all of you that are contributing data and information. It’s much appreciated.

Baa I've heard these referenced in the press conferences but not seen any data. It would be great as HSJ now maps at a hospital level if that data could have been released at that level of granularity too

The reality comes with the weekly ONS data

Where is that found, please?

The figures have been backlogged from the start. At no time have the official announced figures come anywhere near reality.

That's why Barracker's volcano is so important. We need something similar for non-hospital deaths, possibly worked out from the ONS statistics, but they are at least 2 weeks behind.

Nearly 1000 deaths is NEVER a good thing, it's tragic

the actual hospital admissions, and numbers in ICU
Yes, these are the thing to look at. They are on the charts used in the daily update on TV. Looking positive yesterday.

What's FWR?

@BirdandSparrow what is the population in Spain? Could it be percentage of population in the U.K. vs Spain which is less horrendous here maybe?

Personally I think it's going to get a lot worse unfortunately

@itsgettingweird the feminist board.

I lurk extensively on both but don't comment much, I've noticed the crossover too

Baaaahhhhh, where can you find hospital admissions? I really worry about all the people who are being refused admission and I wonder if that is why numbers are dropping. Not because there aren't people ill enough for admission, but because they can't be admitted because ICUs are full.

If people are spending weeks rather than days in ICUs, then more will arrive than leave, and although numbers of places have increased, there were shortages of ICU staff before this all began; even with new staff ratios and rapid upskilling, there aren't enough.

Appuskidu - the link is in the opening post. It has Excel documents showing deaths by trust, both daily, and a running total each day.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Spain's population is 45mil. 21 mil lower than UK.

Italy's is 60mil about 6.5 mil lower than uk.

Spain's is a bit over 46 million. I think Spain has the highest per capita death rate.

Italy's peak number of daily deaths was 971 and Spain's was 950. It will be interesting to see whether the UK's hits 1,000 tomorrow or shortly afterwards, as it was striking that both Spain's and Italy's daily rate never quite hit 1,000 whilst hovering close by for a while.

3 weeks since mothering sunday. Peak largely predicted to be in next 5 days. Cheltenham was 11th- 13th March I think

I thought we'd hit 10k deaths by Sunday, but it looks like that'll be closer to 12k deaths. Shocking and horrific.

Tommorows will be artificially low because of good friday. My finger in the air prediction is Wednesday for the peak.

Ah, OK thanks.

@itsgettingweird FWR = the feminism and women’s rights board.