Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 4

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Welcome to thread 4 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Wow, I make that 953 for the UK as a whole? That's worse than Spain's highest of 950 in one day. Although, as always, I'm not really surprised. If you look at the graphs, the UK always seemed set to reach those kinds of numbers.

If peak is 3 weeks away surely we are going to have more than 20,000 deaths? It’s getting on for a thousand a day now and would be climbing until the peak.

So likely at least an average of a thousand a day for the next 21 days, which is upwards of 20,000 in itself?

They may add community Care homes total by 5 pm. Oh it's awful really. I know on average a 1000 die daily in UK in normal circumstances but if you add Covid AND those who usually pass PLUS those who treatments have stopped due to Covid and unreported deaths in the community as yet it's simply awful, awful😭

Bird,

But is it so bad? In the last 7 days deaths have gone up by 50%. If they peak at 1,500 a day in a week and come down at the same rate of going up, the total will be around 35,000 (the way we are counting them, which I know could be an underestimate).

I would much prefer not to have seen a pandemic at all in my lifetime but, given that we have one, 35,000 would only be an extra 5% than a normal year, and many of the dead would have died this year anyway.

I think the numbers are reasonable cause for mild optimism.

I see the FT charts now exclude the nursing home deaths in France "to maintain cross-national comparability". Does that mean that all the deaths recorded in all other countries are hospital only?

France apparently had 3237 nursing home deaths up until a couple of days ago - I don't think all of these have been backdated in any way, and I presume they don't include community-but-not-nursing-home deaths, so the final count in France will be very high. Is it the same in Italy and Spain - outside hospital deaths still not being included?

The same would apply to the US - are the New York deaths hospital only?

4 ambulances in my village yesterday. My village majority over 65.

Place making

Well they keep saying % if deaths has dropped and is cause for positivity but they are not telling the truth. I was lucky where my cancer treatment was completed mid March but I know several where because of high number of Covid patients in Local hospital their treatment has stopped. Also I believe there may be lots of people suffering heart attacks and strokes due to overloaded 111 and 999.

Awful as the number is, it's a lot lower than the covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom IHME projections that were being quoted a few days ago - their projections were over 1700 for today.

It isn't increasing as much as was feared.

It may not be a continual rise tho from here - just a high sustained figure as it works through the rest of the country from London then drops?
Some reports here of HCP's being told their peak in May when London will peak long before that.

I believe rate of 'normal' expected deaths will increase by 40% due to hospitals being overwhelmed with Covid patients.

I still don't understand why different areas of the country peak at different times if we all locked down at the same time. It hurts my brain.

Yes I can see that rate is less than expected but has the Cheltenham races and football matches lot gone through system yet? Or will that be end of April given it takes about a month for serious cases to pass away?

@NewAccountForCorona It’s not clear of the comparability of the issues daily total with those projections though. The projections are probably for actual daily deaths on that day, while the data we’ve got is hospital based deaths reported that day (with huge time lags, one death included today was from March 5th). It’s totally possible the actual deaths today match those projections (and also that they don’t, the data is so far from accurate we won’t know for months really).

@Sostenueto yes 866 for England only.

We here in Suffolk didn't get our first cases till a good fortnight after other areas started like London. Think London ahead by 2 weeks? Not sure just thinking out loud.

I don't see how almost 1000 deaths in a day (when that doesn't take into account all CV deaths) is in anyway a positive. People were saying Spain and Italy were suffering so terribly and all the reports of overwhelmed health systems and temporary morgues. Well, you're past the highest figure so far in Spain now. And you haven't even taken as extreme measures as Spain to slow contagion.

First time posting on one of these threads but you seem to be the people to come to for all the charts and graphs! I'm not sure if there's a better way to word this but is there any site showing cases by population? So (pulling numbers from the air) 1 case per 500 people in Area A with population 50,000 but 1 per 800 in Area B with 40,000 total. I've been curious since DH realised that although our area has approx a quarter the cases of Birmingham we're also roughly a quarter the population so occurence as a percentage is similar.

The Guardian and some other news outlets are reporting that:

Of the 866 new deaths announced today, 117 occurred on 9 April while 720 took place between 1 April and 8 April.

The remaining 29 deaths occurred in March, including one on March 5.

Only 117 occurred yesterday. WTF?! Or am I being really dense?

Those figures remember are probably still not including most recent deaths are they? Or have the govt confirmed they've caught up with the reporting backlog? Only yesterday it seemed to be saying that almost (if any at all) of the deaths reported at the press release yesterday were from days ago.

The backlog is a permanent state, that's why the day to day statistics are comparable (ish).

Cross post.
That's what I meant. It was the same yesterday.

So the daily totals are basically meaningless then?

I'd noticed the same SophocIestheFox. Maybe a common interest in reliable data, reality-based facts, and the scientific method.

Not meaningless, because they are counted the same way each day so they show change over time.