Worried About Coronavirus- thread 37

[TheStarryNight]

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Interesting Scientist on sky news

One thing he said was that we were arguably to slow to take interventions and the economy vs lives in not an either or. He said in the flu pandemic in USA those areas that locked down longer actually bounced back quicker than those that rushed it.

It is clear the governments strategy is still for us all to get it.

Honestly, I don't think the govt has much of a strategy at all. It was slow to react at the outset, it's still being slow now. I think it is well and truly out of its depth. There is still much that is unknown about this virus, so any 'strategy' could be just plain wrong.

If their strategy is for us all to get it, then there will be a huge wave of sick people, and the economy will take a huge hit, the NHS won't cope at all, it will be chaos. They can't possibly want that. I think they are pinning their hopes on either a vaccine or a good anti-viral treatment.

Honestly think people havent switched mindset from the initial
It's only old or vulnerable people
Seeing it as they dont need to avoid it because they are young.
But that second peak is so high even if you only need oxygen you will not get it.

But i appreciate some people do just want to take their chances so they can get bacl to normal.
I think the focus on death is unhelpful there though as it is also the numbers of young in hospital and icu. If they are in hospital they are more likely to have the lung damage.

Tbh im not sure i want to survive in a world if i need to worry all the time it will flare up and kill me.

The UK cabinet is apparently split between the 'Hawks' (Rishi, Patel, Raab, Johnson) who want to lift lockdown around the first bank holiday in May versus the 'Doves' who think it should be more like the second bank holiday in May (Hancock and Gove). The latter are better know for their attention to detail and not being as far to the hard right (eugenics sympathisers).

So, not really 'following the science' as they keep banging on about?

So, not really 'following the science' as they keep banging on about?

They want to prioritise the economy. Except that's not really how interconnected stuff works.

We know that the government in general have a limited grasp of how things interconnect.

It's not reassuring.

New figures apparently released showing deaths up to April 3rd were 15% higher (extra 400 odd) due to care home and community deaths. I've a feeling the last 10 days would add a lot to that. Heard on radio so no link yet...

From the Office of National Statistics:

We have published our figures for deaths registered in the week ending 3 April 2020.

The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 3 April 2020 was 16,387.

This is an increase of 5,246 deaths registered compared with the previous week and 6,082 more than the five-year average for this week in the year.

Of the deaths registered in week ending 3 April 2020, 3,475 mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19)" on the death certificate, which is 21.2% of all deaths. This compares with 539 (4.8% of all deaths) in the previous week.

In London nearly half (46.6%) of deaths registered in week ending 3 April 2020 involved COVID-19.

The West Midlands also had a high proportion of COVID-19 deaths, accounting for 22.1% of deaths registered in this region.

Of deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to week ending 3 April 2020, 90.2% (3,716 deaths) occurred in hospital, with the remainder occurring in hospices, care homes and private homes.

Tbh im not sure i want to survive in a world if i need to worry all the time it will flare up and kill me.

Remember, in this day and age we have not had to worry about fatal infections the way our ancestors did - even recent ancestors. We are given vaccines to avoid killers like polio, cholera, diptheria, etc. We have antibiotics and antivirals to help us. We do not expect to die of viruses. However it was the norm for the human race until very recently. And not just viruses, of course, but things like animal attacks, accidents, and so on. They were all capable of killing or maiming, with not a lot that could be done. Families regularly lost children before adulthood. Check your family tree, there are likely many early child deaths in there going back through the generations.

So now people worry about other things, like losing their jobs, social stigma, Brexit, etc.

Personally I am not going to devote a lot of time to worrying about Covid-19. I might have a wobble now and then, but basically I have resolved to live life to the best of my ability and do the things I enjoy whilst I still can. We have never known what tomorrow may bring, nothing has changed in that respect. Worrying has never achieved anything.

Six thousand excess deaths in a week would be over 300k excess deaths this year if this pattern continues

@CrunchyCarrot

And in other parts of the world, it's remained the case that people could be at risk of dying of fatal viruses and other illnesses. In Africa, millions die of malaria every year. (A very good friend from The Gambia died of cerebral malaria leaving a young wife and children behind.) It kills millions of children every year.

Millions still die of AIDS as well. I spent 2 months in Uganda back in 1994, and learned that there were villages where there was no one older than 15 who was still alive.

So yes, COVID-18 is likely to be a serious right up to when a vaccine is available, but there's no point in allowing your lives to be dominated by fear.

6,082 more than the five-year average for the week ending 3rd April

We officially reached the 10000 hospital deaths on 12th I think it was. That's 9 days later than that total. On the 3rd the cumulative official hospital deaths was 3605. The weekly figure for England and Wales was nearly DOUBLE that (to get the cumulative total you have to add it to the previous weeks). I looked at the excess mortality for the week before the other day and it was about 1200. Previous weeks werent showing on the data. That puts us on 7200. That's double the weekly hospital figure.

The data from the EU has suggested that around 50% of deaths have been outside hospital.

It's fairly reasonable to suggest at this points that deaths are more likely to be around the 20000 mark already.

Six thousand excess deaths in a week would be over 300k excess deaths this year if this pattern continues

I'd caution on that, because there are a finite pool of people liable to die from covid-19 this year and as more people do get it and even a limited immunity does build up, that rate will slow.

However the numbers are still not good.

Oh and 6 thousand excess deaths for week ending 3rd April WILL be lower than the total for this week.

Red. I think you may be wrong in your analysis of Nightingale hospitals (although sadly you may be right about other stuff). The Nightingales will be needed for this wave of the virus because of the length of time people need to stay in hospital. We are possibly just seeing the peak of hospital admissions for this wave but this level of admission will go on for quite a few weeks. Peak hospital " occupancy" will not be until after that. Also not all the Nightingales are for ICU beds. In Manchester they are for recovery nursing following ICU. I think they will use it to help the main hospitals get back to more "business as usual" and to be able to treat non-Covid patients who have currently had treatment put on hold.

Ffs.

DM called me this morning. Bil and nephew are round there fitting a new bloody floor in the bedroom (nothing wrong with the old one, could easily have waited). Nephew is still visiting all his mates as normal (pics on fb).

And my 'shielding' 82 year old father, with bloody leukaemia, has popped down the town to the shops.

I give up. I've stayed up past 1am on a variety of sites to get them delivery slots sorted for the next couple of weeks. This was aftrr my DM called me panicking that they couldn't go out.
What was the point if they are going to keep exposing themselves anyway.

They are fucked if they catch it but still aren't taking it seriously at all.

Sorry rant over, I'm worried/angry.

not so long ago, until post ww2 really families expected deaths and disabilities in almost every family.

we looked at our family tree over christmas and it was humbling. out of 4 children one usually died of illness in childhood and one other ended up disabled due to birth complications or illness.

And?

I sincerely hope I'm wrong tbh!

The latter are better know for their attention to detail and not being as far to the hard right (eugenics sympathisers).

This kind of rubbish discredits the rest of your otherwise sensible analysis. If the holders of the four great offices of states were far-right eugenicists, then they’d be letting the disease rip right now, not locking down the economy at the cost of untold hundreds of billions of pounds - they have all the political power necessary to do it, if they wanted to.

Unless you think they’re just really soft-hearted and generous far-right eugenicists? Because that’s not a thing.

And in other parts of the world, it's remained the case that people could be at risk of dying of fatal viruses and other illnesses. In Africa, millions die of malaria every year. (A very good friend from The Gambia died of cerebral malaria leaving a young wife and children behind.) It kills millions of children every year.

Yes, we hear precious little about that in the West except when it's Comic Relief. It's like they are on another planet.

we looked at our family tree over christmas and it was humbling. out of 4 children one usually died of illness in childhood and one other ended up disabled due to birth complications or illness.

Yes it's very sad. We take far too much for granted now. Human beings are survivors, and we are stronger than we think.

Do you think that after what has happened to him Boris Johnson might change his approach?

Do you think that after what has happened to him Boris Johnson might change his approach?

I doubt it tbh.
plus he received different nhs care to what 'regular' service users receive, so he doesn't even get an insight on how bad the situation is in 'normal' circumstances, let alone now.

@woodencoffeetable what evidence is there that BJ received different care to others?

admittedly no evidence, but I have a strong suspicion that he actually got more care and food (that he could actually reach) and 1 on 1 observation...

My opinion is Boris received the excellent standard of ICU care that we would all ordinarily receive if we weren't in this current crisis. He was extremely fortunate to have constant care from experienced ICU trained nurses. Unfortunately hospitals are now suffering with staff absence due illness/isolating and there is a shortfall of experienced ICU nurses. If we were to end up in ICU at this time we may not be so fortunate.

I hope to hell this has changed his attitude towards health and social care.

The ONS stats are sobering and should put an end to the comments that lockdowns were unnecessary and it's no worse than flu.

@CendrillonSings It is clear their plan is still for most people to get it. Which means elderly and ill people dying. That is not the plan in countries like Germany. We are being told it is inevitable that lots of elderly and ill people die. As if having the worst mortality rate in Europe is not bad enough. We are going to accept killing more people.