3 week plateau, 3 week falling, then schools open?

[AlmostThereKeepMoving]

The figures being released are promising.

I’ve said all along that there is absolutely no chance the schools will keep closed until the end of July!

I think it’s looking like they will reopen after May half term.

Teachers aren’t going to risk their lives going back too early and it isn’t safe for kids to be back until this is over. Or at least the first wave is. You can’t put a price on human life.

@beebijobes I agree. I don’t understand why everyone is saying September. We won’t have a vaccine and we will be heading into flu season 2 months later. Surely that’s the worst time to reopen schools?

Life will have to go on at some point, and it will go on with C19 a risk. Lockdown is only sustainable for probably another 3-4 weeks before other risks increase (suicide, death from other courses, mental health crisis, increase in crime, lower adherence). They have painted us into a corner, many of us are too terrified to set foot outside but at some point they are going to have to encourage us to when there is still a risk.

It will end up with the shield group remaining in shield and the rest of us having to muddle through. I suspect there will be localised lockdowns, social distancing remaining, masks being required and anyone entering the country straight to quarantine.

We have to keep in mind that 99% of people who get this will be fine and that sensible precautions really can reduce the risk of getting it.

We will find a new normal, we won't remain like this for months on end, it just isn't viable.

I can't see why kids can't go back on a rota, 1 week in 2 or 3 to aide social distancing if necessary, it is probably better for them than months of this.

Why don’t we just focus on surviving the next couple of months. From what I’ve heard working in FE schools will not be opening any time soon.

Ok, so wanting my kids back at school is not about wanting to see the back of them. It's about being deeply anxious about the amount of education that they're missing, mainly my DS16 who is in Yr12 and missing a huge proportion of his A level courses. I am in no position to teach him these subjects, and he really struggles with self-study. He was just about keeping going with lessons, but doing it all at home is potentially the end of his A level hopes.
Secondly, exams have been cancelled for many reasons, but none of them to do with when they thought schools would be back. There is a huge question about fairness - if they had waited, can you imagine the stress it would have caused and then potential accusations of unfairness? Plus the boards needed a decision in order to put alternative systems in place in good time.

My understanding is still that schools won't be going back until September, at the earliest.

Exam grades will depend on mock results and predicted grades as there is no other way.

They won't open now because it will look like cancelling ZGCSEs nd A levels was a mistake.

I don't want rid of my children as soon as possible, I am enjoying having them at home but I want them back at school as soon as it is safe which I am hoping is sooner rather than later. Much as the family time is great they are missing their friends, their education and their extra curricular activities. My daughter (year 7) has a full programme of lessons but it is not the same as being in the classroom, the labs etc, and my son's (year 5) teachers are doing a brilliant job but all of the work set is consolidation not new learning. Our children are safe but they are missing out. I hope they can go back after May half term, but only if it is safe of course.

I personally dont think they will be back till September

I agree with the comments about the government possibly aiming for another shallow peak in the summer rather than September, which may mean relaxing social distancing for a time in early summer. Not sure what this would look like though.

For everyone saying teachers wouldn’t risk their health going back, unless they are shielding they might not have a choice. Many other public and private key/essential workers can’t work from home and many teachers are in at the moment working with key worker children. Not everyone is at home.

I understand parents are concerned but I don’t understand why they don’t get it that people are going to die because of this virus. Sorry but that’s more important than your child missing a few months of school.

I've always thought may half term as well.

Scottish schools close end of June and open mid August - so about 3 weeks difference to England. Even 3 weeks in July to get used to the routine again would be welcome

I am on 12 week down with my son so that brings him to 26 th of June school have told me September at the earliest

I understand parents are concerned but I don’t understand why they don’t get it that people are going to die because of this virus. Sorry but that’s more important than your child missing a few months of school.

We do understand that the virus is killing people.

We also understand that the virus isn't going to go away in 'a few months'.

Either we close schools for 18 months, or we use the current lockdown to find a manageable way to get life somewhat back to normal - including for children - in the interim period until there's a vaccine.

@CKBJ
Why did the government cancel the GCSES and A’levels if they thought there was a possibility of schools reopening in this academic year? Surely they could have just adjusted them to be taken in June and early July.
No, they couldn't. It would be a huge logistical nightmare and the whole process of marking, standardisation, grade boundary setting etc would not be completed in time. UCAS depends on getting the grades through for offers, clearing, etc. A decision like this had to be made early and clearly in order for the system to adapt in good time. As it is, Ofqual is working like crazy to try to get things sorted out.

China was in lockdown for 59 days. I'm not sure if their schools are open yet.

Thing is, nobody knows, there isn't anyone with an actual answer to this. Scotland is in a different position slightly as their holidays are a month earlier.

There are studies going on to try and establish whether people have got antibodies in the community to try and model the likely numbers, but that takes time. The app for recording symptoms / no symptoms is really important to help them track it.

Exam season finishes mid June and the students were going to miss weeks of f2f teaching with no idea if they'd be sitting their exams. The only fair thing to do was call them off early so that a solution to grades could be found.

The other thing is there was talk of a second spike and a second lockdown, they will want to get people back to normal so that doesn't hit at the worst point of the flu season.

But no one knows, they will be working hard on an exit strategy and a media campaign to go with it.

There is no “manageable way” to get kids back in school at least not for the foreseeable future. Again, we can’t risk lives.

I think the fact OP that they told vulnerable people to shield for 12 weeks is a good indicator. I think there's not a cat in hells chance that any of this will end any time soon, we're not even at the peak yet.

*I disagree with this completely, why wouldn't people want this to be over? Why can't we speculate about when life will return to "normal" and why the hell are people not allowed any faint glimmer of positivity?

Staying positive and looking forward to this ending are in no way the same as being stupid and disregarding the rules*

I agree. It’s bizarre isn’t it? If you dare hope for something positive you get attacked for “not taking it seriously” or wishing people dead or some other such nonsense. Apparently unless you are predicting 3 years of lockdown and no end in sight to this misery you don’t care if people die! It’s absolutely ridiculous.

As for this magical month of September- that’s a horrendous idea to let the second wave happen then- just as winter and flu season is on us again?! What a dangerous proposition. They’ve already said they want the next peak to happen in summer when there is less pressure on the NHS

If they open before January mine won’t be going in. Would consider sending them back in Jan pending what’s going on but certainly not before, nor can I imagine many teachers risking their own families.

Why January?! They won’t have a vaccine by then and January will be mid winter in the middle of flu season. I’d never want my kids to catch it then. How dangerous

Why did the government cancel the GCSES and A’levels if they thought there was a possibility of schools reopening in this academic year?

I'm pretty sure peak learning/revision time for exams is March/April