3 week plateau, 3 week falling, then schools open?

[AlmostThereKeepMoving]

The figures being released are promising.

I’ve said all along that there is absolutely no chance the schools will keep closed until the end of July!

I think it’s looking like they will reopen after May half term.

[GoldenOmber]

This whole mindset is costing lives and risks turning difficulty weeks into difficult months.

Realistically we are looking at a difficult 12-18 months, until there's a vaccine. We can't expect the entire world to stay in lockdown for that time. So at some point we are going to have to start asking questions about what that 12-18 month period will look like, including things like "when do schools go back/people go back to work/shops open again".

Every option is a bit shit right now but we do have to be thinking about how we manage the virus until there's a vaccine. Lockdown won't make it go away.

[Cam77]

@duffeldaisy
I think the UK will end up the hardest hit in Europe. The American research team hopefully way overshot the mark but they are clearly not idiots.

[Delatron]

Why will it be safer in September than say July? So much focus on September being this is magical month where we’ll all be safe and the virus will have gone.

Maybe in June we’ll be on a downward trend with less and less cases. Maybe we’ll start a second wave in August and cases will be back on the up in September.

[Goatymcgoaty]

September could be a disaster though. Cases start rising again, and boom! Groundhog Day - we’re in lockdown by October half term til Easter. To cover the cold weather and flu season.

Hate to say it, but a few weeks in July to see if cases rise, might be a better strategy.

Schools and the people in them won’t really be “safe” until there is a vaccine or effective treatment.

[IdblowJonSnow]

Oh sod off rabbit nose. I adore my kids but will still look forward to them going back to school because they miss it and their friends.
Of course we all want them to be safe.

[ChickLitLover]

they want life back to normal, for people to not be dying in the hundreds day on day, for businesses to survive, to see their loved ones. Why, exactly, is it so hard to understand that people want this to be done?

Well we all want this but it’s just not possible at the moment. Some of the people I know that keep whinging about schools being closed, and they are whinging, just can’t seem to be bothered with their kids. Having to put a bit of time and effort into their kids seems too much for some. Sad, but true. It’s really difficult but the priority is that they’re alive, I can only presume that some people just don’t seem to believe that their child is at risk.

[Maryann1975]

I started a thread similar to this last night. A month ago, people were furious that schools went shutting, going mad that everything was still open. Week three of everywhere being closed and everyone is calling for schools to reopen and life to return to normal.
Yes it’s bloody hard work not being able to go out and live our lives as we want to, but I’d rather have this than have to tell my dc that someone they love has died.
If schools have to stay closed till September, so be it (and I say that as a childminder who is loosing so much money from not working- the government scheme for the self employed won’t cover 80% of what I was expecting to earn while I’m off, so I’m financially quite a lot worse off through all of this).

[Voice0fReason]

Not a chance of them going back before September.
Without an effective treatment or vaccine, a return to school would send that curve back up. It would put too many people at risk.

[GoldenOmber]

If schools have to be closed until the virus has gone away then they won't be open in September. June 2021, maybe.

[Matildathehun77]

“Can I still go on my holiday? Can I still go to this concert? Can I still go to friends for Barbeque? When can kids go back to school? Can kids go to sleepover? Can we go to our picnic in the park”

This whole mindset is costing lives and risks turning difficulty weeks into difficult months

I disagree with this completely, why wouldn't people want this to be over? Why can't we speculate about when life will return to "normal" and why the hell are people not allowed any faint glimmer of positivity?

Staying positive and looking forward to this ending are in no way the same as being stupid and disregarding the rules.

I completely get that the accepted mindset of Mumsnet is to look only at the bleakest picture then multiply it by 100, but not everybody finds that helpful and not everybody can live like that.

At the end of the day it's not up to anybody here to decide when schools open or when lockdown lifts, but surely if people want to be positive and hope for the best, they're entitled to do that without being accused of single handedly being responsible for spreading the virus?

[Cam77]

@GoldenOmber
Lockdown will make it go away if we can do it properly for a few weeks. Already new cases are dropping. Of course the big challenge will be managing borders after the summer/autumn, but all countries will face this challenge. Tens of millions of children in China are restarting school. But you can’t take those measures until likely numbers are right down at zero or just a tiny handful.

[SleepingStandingUp]

Some of the people I know that keep whinging about schools being closed, and they are whinging, just can’t seem to be bothered with their kids. there's a difference between that and saying they don't care if going back gets their kids or other people killed tho

[Delatron]

Yep @Goatymcgoaty absolute madness to send all the kids back to school in September and subsequently all the parents back to work. Just as we hit flu season.

We want the second wave in August when the NHS has more capacity. That is why I think the schools will go back mid to end of June. Lots of noise in the media today about schools closures not having much impact on the spread of the virus. I know most on here disagree but it’s being reported.

[WestWasnt]

Of course I want my family and the school staff to be safe! There are studies to say that schools being closed aren’t reducing cases by more than 2-4%. So surely that has to be balanced against the impact it’s having on families, some who are unable to work, kids being neglected, kids mental health issues etc. etc.
Exams being cancelled was only fair whenever they go back in my view, when they’ve missed weeks at least of classes, and have been under a lot of stress.
If my DC Dad wasn’t a dickhead and was actually being supportive, and/or I could have support from Grandparents and other family as we normally do, I’d probably be having a lovely time at home with the kids.
As it is, they are suffering as they’re not getting anywhere near enough one to one attention, or getting out for long enough walks often enough. I don’t know why people find it so hard to work out everyone’s situation is different.
As has been said multiple times, none of us know when they’ll be going back, not even the government at this stage.

[Delatron]

Lockdown will not make this virus go away. Unless you plan on staying in lockdown for years and also banning air travel for years?

[MedSchoolRat]

That Viner study is annoying me... from the review article (no quality assessment, why not?!)

"Schools were also closed in Hong Kong during the SARS epidemic; however, the extent to which this was at a city-wide or local level is unclear."

From wikipedia

" On 27 March, Arthur K. C. Li, head of the Hong Kong Education and Manpower Bureau, announced cancellation of all classes in educational institutions. " and later "Hong Kong school closures were extended by two weeks to 21 April"

I can't be arsed to find the real dates of the closures, but if the authors say "Oh we're not really sure ... " without checking the real facts of the closure dates, That is Pants.

They may be lucky I didn't get asked to review that. Have a feeling I would have found evidence to slam it.

[snidgetowl]

As a teacher I really hope we get back before the summer just to get back to some normality but realistically I can't see it happening before September. Social distancing would be an absolute nightmare. I teach secondary, and with such overcrowded classrooms I currently have three children per desk in some classes. If they had to sit two metres apart I maybe could fit in around 9 children at a push, instead of the 35 I usually have? Anyone who thinks secondary pupils will do as they're told and keep a distance didn't see the chaos in the a few weeks before the schools shut - pupils deliberately coughing on each other, squashing to get through overcrowded corridors etc

[Toothsil]

I'm desperately hoping they're sensible and keep them closed long enough to be safe. I don't want to send my child back when there is still a risk, I want her safe at home with me.

[GoldenOmber]

Lockdown will make it go away if we can do it properly for a few weeks.

No, no it really won't. It'll make cases drop and it'll give us chance to put something else in place like China and S Korea have done. But the virus will still be there, there'll still be cases, we'll still need to be constantly testing for it and tracking it. That's what I'm saying - at some point we have to work out how to get schools back when the virus is still around, and 'September' isn't automatically a better time than 'June' for that.

China and South Korea still have cases and as you say yourself, they're sending schools back after a couple of months off (which would put ours as going back around May/June if we follow the same timetable).

[beebijobes]

Why will it be safer in September than say July? So much focus on September being this is magical month where we’ll all be safe and the virus will have gone.

A parent who wants kids to go back in June is bad but a parent who hopes for Sept is good? Will the virus be gone in Sept?

[duffeldaisy]

@Cam77
Yes, that's what I feared. I'm not even sure if things will be able to settle enough by September for any full going back, and am worried that there will be so much pressure to 'get back to normal' that parents will have to travel to work again, instead of having options to work from home, and it'll start the spread all over again.

I suppose we can only take it a few days at a time and see what happens, rather than get sick with worry now, when things might happen, like something to reduce the symptoms a lot, which makes it all a lot less dangerous.

[beebijobes]

Do people think we can all hide in our homes until a vaccine & the gov will just keep paying our wages?

[OldLace]

I am physically disabled and have sleep apnea so use a CPAP.
I am still very tired and .have a chronic pain condition.
Also, I am a single parent and both my kids have autism.
One is missing school and cant get out of bed (and is under a Psychiatrist for anxiety anyway) and wants to KNOW when school goes back.
One was already only on a 50% timetable due to ASD/anxiety and I suspect may never go back (but also needs to KNOW when that might be)
It's a bit of a perfect storm in my house!
BUT... they cant return until it is safe enough for them to do so.
and that depends on when the curve flattens etc and whether there is decent testing and PPE for NHS and all sorts of things.
We simply cannot know yet, but my guess would be September?

[ChickLitLover]

there's a difference between that and saying they don't care if going back gets their kids or other people killed tho

I agree. And I didn’t say that. But by sending kids back to early, unfortunately the reality is that it does increase the chances of their children and other people dying. I think people think their kids will be fine and are maybe not understanding the knock on effects.

My kids are year 6 and year 11 so have been quite badly impacted. I don’t think I’ll be sending either of them back until there’s a vaccine to be honest.

[Confuddledtown]

It's not that I want my kids back ASAP - I'm a SAHM with only one in school anyway, so I'd still have the other at home. It's just hard seeing the mental effect it's having on her. She is really struggling, and no matter how much structure and routine I put into our day, and the amount of fun stuff, crafting, facetiming, online classes we've been doing - its just not enough. She is really suffering mentally. I know its for the greater good, and protects her as well as others. But she doesn't understand that. I do think the kids are getting this very hard. I know it has to be done, but I don't think the negative impact on children should be swept under the carpet either.