Uk coronavirus deaths predicted to be 66,000 the worst in Europe, 2nd worse in world.

[HerstoryInTheMaking]

Why does this not surprise me. We were appalling slow to allow lockdown. Govt u-turn on herd immunity. Allowing Cheltenham and other events to go ahead. Those in charge need to be held accountable when this is over.

metro.co.uk/2020/04/07/uk-set-66000-coronavirus-deaths-becoming-worst-hit-europe-12521377/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Just reading about a study just out that predicts the UK will be the worst affected country in Europe by corona virus

Can you post the study, @alloutoffucks

Thanks

@alloutoffucks
I agree with you. The UK tried to take a different view because the models were based on the wrong disease and they thought we could ride it out, develop immunity and save the economy. Those of us who were watching this from January knew this was most definitely not the flu, would overwhelm the NHS and crash the economy anyway.
Because the UK was so slow (some might say, criminally slow) to act, we will be hit harder because with exponential growth in an epidemic, every day you delay in breaking the transmission chain adds up massively more infections and death. It's a mathematical reality.

And people citing annual death rates for the UK, should remember these deaths from Covid-19 are not instead of those deaths but in addition to those. And that's not even counting the increased mortality as a result of an overwhelmed health service and cancelled cancer treatments, delayed diagnoses etc.

This is what i dont understand....Isnt the end game ultimately still herd immunity?The whole point of the lockdown is to space out the spread of the virus so that those who are really badly affected dont get it at once and overwhelm the nhs. So once restrictions are loosened the virus is still there and people will still get infected as before. I dont see how the virus can be eradicated from the UK at this point (until a vaccine but we cant lockdown till then) so it's more just accepting that we'll all get it at some point?

Agreed that if better precautions had been taken earlier (ie not allowing flights from italy/wuhan to continue flying into the UK) then we wouldn't have to be using herd immunity as a strategy.

828 in England Alone today

There is so much we could have done to prevent this car crash. The time to hit the brakes isn't when there's widespread community transmission but before. You get ahead of this thing and keep the numbers low enough so that effective testing, tracing and quarantine of infected cases and their close contacts stops community spread. That buys you time to get in the testing capacity, PPE, ventilators and health capacity to cope when cases do build.

@alloutoffucks I suggest that you do what I do and go to the original research. It is still highly speculative, but it is, at least, rather more reliable a source than MN!

And I explained where I get my figures from. The Office of National Statistics. It's the body responsible for accurate data about the UK. However, here's a useful round up of the facts from a reliable news source www.independent.co.uk/news/health/flu-vaccine-deaths-nhs-ineffective-crisis-bad-weather-illness-2017-a8660496.html

Those of us who were watching this from January knew this was most definitely not the flu, would overwhelm the NHS and crash the economy anyway

It would take 10 years to get herd immunity without overwhelming the nhs, assuming we keep nightingales etc and can recruit a lot more nurses and doctors to staff the covid facilities so that we can treat other things as well

So herd immunity is a naff strategy

Isnt the end game ultimately still herd immunity?The whole point of the lockdown is to space out the spread of the virus so that those who are really badly affected dont get it at once and overwhelm the nhs. So once restrictions are loosened the virus is still there and people will still get infected as before. I dont see how the virus can be eradicated from the UK at this point (until a vaccine but we cant lockdown till then) so it's more just accepting that we'll all get it at some point?

Quite. Whatever the strategy everyone is aiming simply to not have an overwhelmed health service. As Flu vaccines have shown, even a vaccine won't stop a virus. Some people will get the disease anyway, and viruses are very effective at evolving anyway. A virus is a Pandora's box. Once it is out, there is no stuffing it back in. The hope is that as with other viruses we do develop herd immunity. But that's just another form of guesswork based on what generally happens.

The IHME data which the report is based on is wrong.

Apart from the error over the number of ICU beds and the numbers of hospital beds generally, they were predicting the following numbers of deaths per day:

6/4 1258 (547-2508) actual 439
7/4 1223 (480 - 2614) actual 786
8/4 1433 (550 - 3276) actual 936

The exponential growth figures are going to be completely out if the information they're using as a starting point is almost double the actual position.

@Moondust1
The WHO urged countries to push back and not let it take root in their populations. It was never inevitable - after all SARS & MERS were two coronaviruses that were effectively eradicated. Yet in Europe, the reaction was to sit back.
And now we don't know what we have allowed into our populations. We do not know if it's biphasic, what long term health impacts may be and evidence is mounting that there's very limited immunity (the antibody studies in China are not promising).
And yes, saw this coming in January @Tonyaster and knew that if what was happening in Wuhan came here we would be overwhelmed - it wasn't difficult to make that connection. In first half of Feb, we were lobbying our MP about this.

It doesn't help that the numbers that are currently being published are so very inaccurate.

If you look at the NHS data they have so far registered 6482 CV deaths in England alone. That is just counting the people who died whilst in hospital, and is not a complete count - every day they add more people retrospectively (for example today they were still adding people for 5th March).

The ONS are also releasing figures, but they are about 2 weeks behind, and are still subject to being updated. They cover England and Wales and seem to add around 25% to the number released.

I don't think that it unrealistic to think we are already at around 10,000 deaths.

@sorrel - we know the data for the 6th and 7th is inaccurate though - it always is after the weekend.

As I understand it the govt strategy has always been to try to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed ie flatten the curve.
Very early days, as Chris Whitty said yesterday, but there are signs that this may have started to happen.

oak but that is the same with any country.

It's also why I wonder what value people endlessly comparing death rates actually has.

I don't think any countries death rates are fully up to date and there are valid reasons why this is the case.

If someone goes to hospital and dies soon after testing, there will be a time delay getting the test back. Other valid reasons too.

We know that italy has had many more deaths than they have recorded.

It's also why I wonder what value people endlessly comparing death rates actually has

It doesn't have much value at all! Infection rates must be more informative. I'd like more testing, for sure.

oak but that is the same with any country.

Probably.

But you can't help wondering why it is so difficult to collate information about what is actually happening in hospitals. Community deaths I can understand, as there may not be an obvious cause of death until it is investigated, but it is strange to me that hospitals are finding it so hard the data is a month behind in some cases....

Yes, testing is definitely key to any route out of this.

And people citing annual death rates for the UK, should remember these deaths from Covid-19 are not instead of those deaths but in addition to those

There is no real way of knowing how many coronavirus deaths will be in addition to usual death stats at the current time. We will have a clearer idea in 12 months time when able to compare like for like numbers over that time period. Given that by far the majority of people dying with coronavirus are aged over 80, it is reasonable to assume that at least some of these are people who would die in the next 12 months anyway. In other words, it is not impossible that current deaths represent something of a bunching up of the stats into a few months rather than spreading them out over a longer period of time.

I do agree that there is likely going to be a rise in unnecessary deaths due to cancelled operations, delayed cancer treatments etc. I suspect deaths as a result of domestic violence are going to increase and there may be some tragic DIY related death increases and suicides related to isolation. But at the same time, fewer road accidents and accidents at work.

So whilst it feels utterly horrendous at the current time, I think it's a suck it and see situation in relation to deaths over time. I don't think it will look anywhere near as bad over 12 months and even less so over 24 months.

I do hope that once we flatten the curve that we start properly testing and contact tracing. Its the only way to manage it until we get a vaccine.

Time since first death

Interesting, pocketem, I have seen a similar chart but starting from day of third death. I'm not sure why. It didn't have all those countries on, but showed pretty much the same thing for those that are.

Also, we are still not at the point of ICU capacity. Nationwide, there are still beds free, and that doesn't include the Nightingale hospitals, which of course are also not included in this report.

I am really impressed by these hospitals. These Nightingale hospitals are in real buildings, with proper hospital beds, electricity, tech, ventilators, within bays, and built in a couple of weeks. Many other countries seem to just have tents in a field with camp beds.

@Lostmyshityear9 I thought the average age of death was 60?

And other causes of death will go down during the lock down such as car accidents.

WHO has average age of death as 78.