Do you think lockdown will end next week?

[spinthebottle]

just musing really, my DP is adamant it will end next week

May at the earliest I reckon, potentially longer, especially if fuckwits keep going to beaches and parks etc

What is the alternative here though? Ok lockdown is lifted in 3 months time, The infections shoot back up within weeks

Well no it won't happen exactly like that because they won't lift lockdown all in one go. They'll reopen things gradually and there'll be a steady trickle of cases but then that's what they want. Infections won't shoot back up because by then a few people will have had it and developed antibodies which will slow it down and also because some measures will be kept in place longer than others. At some point the trickle may become a flood again and we might go for number 2 lockdown to manage a second peak...... but they don't need to keep us under full lockdown until a vaccine's developed, all they're trying to do is to control the flow.

No, there's no way it's ending that soon.

Better to face facts than cling to false hopes.

The reality is you're not really in lockdown at all
I'm currently in a place where it has now been implemented. Only food stores open and only from 7am-12pm
Only one person permitted to go
Cops all over stopping cars (not a wealthy country they've drafted in the military) threat of jail or $5k fine
Prior to this we had curfew - limited restaurants still open limits to size of groups etc
People flouted the fuck out of it and the PM on the news last night said this (lockdown enforced) is what happens when you all don't listen !
Same as UK but much much faster to stamp it out - like under a week between curfew not working and lockdown.
Governments obvs don't wish to take away civil liberties but the reality is people don't listen and it becomes necessary

I need to cling to any hope

No. End of My at the earliest. Then it will be back by the autumn.

No. No change until towards the end of May, at the earliest. No change for the most vulnerable groups until there's a vaccine or until it's determined that 70% of the population have had the infection and there's a sufficiently strong immunity firebreak in the community. Get used to it.

The government have put in place a scheme where self employed people won’t even start being paid for having their business until June. So that suggests lockdown will be several months after June at least. There isn’t currently a plan to get us out of it.

'Three weeks and then review' means 'three weeks, then see if we need to be stricter'. Not 'three weeks then back to normal'.

the only way to reduce the 2nd peak is to raise the rate now whilst raising nhs capacity. It was the plan all along. Itll seem unthinkable to some but everyone will be talking about it next week.
Its like how people are now acknowledging the 2nd peak. The govt had planned for that from the start.

In today's press conference there was a strong hint from Gove that it will go on for a long time. You could tell from what he said, his facial expression and body language. Rewatch it. I forget which jouno he was replying to

Matilda I hope your plan works and in an ideal situation it would work, however with so many unknowns with this virus I can not see how easing back to normality will work. We are still in the early stages of discovery, figuring out the true effects of what happens once you have the virus and how it works.

The risk of infection to the shielding group is so high I can not see them being able to return to the outside world until there is a cure available. No government would say it’s fine for you to go out now just wash your hands, especially with the risk of droplet transmission and prolonged time periods of surface contamination.

It makes my head spin when I think about how many facets this problem has.

But how can people survive with no income?

This was linked on another thread I thought it a good overview of how difficult the decisions are Buzzfeed exit strategy

Mascotte the government with HAVE to support people, end of story, it’s not even negotiable because the alternative as I said earlier is absolute chaos and deprivation that would turn us into a third world county.

We are a few weeks in, all this will be revealed as we plod along. The government will have to change the way we function as a society in terms of finances, there will be no other alternative.

No, it won't and we must not let it. The govt yesterday was presented with figures showing a slow down that was likely to lead in economic decline as in the depression of the 30s. The govt advisor whois a maths guy and just looks at nos. Stated that maybe it was a mistake that the govt had a lockdown instead of what they were initially doing that was trying to build herd immunity. His interview showed just a callous disregard for people and more about economics. The govt is now then considering whether they should go back to hear immunity as he suggested that by having a lockdown the young will pay economically so that we save the old. He presumably is young and has a big shareholding. News to him is the average person doesn't have a massive portfolio of shares and would like to keep their family members alive at whatever the risk to the economy. There was some admission on c4 that the herd immunity theory was flawed but the correct thing to do is to have had a lockdown and containment process in January. Well, the govt again thinking of economics decided against that.

The lockdown is now likely to last for a long time and he himself stated that we have seen 5% of the epidemic and there is 95% to go. So unless they want to try the herd immunity model again then likely we are in for this year at least.

The British public need to be realistic and see there is no likelihood of change unless a treatment is found. The fact that the disease is now starting to affect younger people itself means there will be a greater risk to the population and economy and only accepting the truth and making provision to settle into a safe way of life is likely to change things as it has in S. Korea and other countries. The first step is acceptance of the change and the second step is safe ways to deal with that change and get to at least partial normality by processes and methods of controlled risk avoidance.

In answer to your question OP, nope. It's going to go on for weeks if not months, especially with all the twats not following instructions.

Your DP is living in Cloud Cuckoo Land.

We've only just started.

Wehtamm i have had no work fir a month, none booked, and been told by my work that no support is forthcoming because of the nature of my job. So I’m a single parent with no income... how can that be compatible with more lockdown? And I can’t get benefits as still technically at work

People can’t just be locked up til there’s a cure

No I don’t think they will be.

But Wehttam the individuals you refer to may not have any desire to remain locked up for 2 years. Plenty would rather take their chances with the virus.

“ Given 2020 so far I’m not ruling out martians appearing.” 😂😂😂

A major part of the problem is that in the absence of mass testing, no-one knows how many people in the UK have had or currently have the virus.

Imperial reckon somewhere between 1.8-11%; Oxford reckon 50%. There is a huge difference in the public health measures and restrictions that would be appropriate to respond to either of these scenarios or somewhere inbetween.

I can't see how the UK can even begin to plan an exit strategy for lock down until there is more known about the extent of the virus currently.

OLP “ Only food stores open and only from 7am-12pm”

Is social distancing in operation? Must be really hard with only 5 hours.