Do you think lockdown will end next week?

[spinthebottle]

just musing really, my DP is adamant it will end next week

No, They are going to extend it
Do you have a link, a source?
This is what gets me.
People spouting things as fact but not actually backing it up.

Not a cat in hell’s.

No, definitely not. I hope.

No, of course not.

But I'm very glad they're only officially announcing lockdown for a few weeks at a time, as it's far easier and on everyone, and especially children, psychologically to take this a few weeks at a time.

It doesn't matter how long lockdown lasts. Or if a few people flout it. The virus will still be there waiting when we finish. We can't 'stay safe' indefinitely.

So I think once the extra NHS capacity is there we will be out of lockdown, unless you're a shielded person. This may not be as early as next week tho.

If cases spike too much, other lockdowns may follow, but they will be relatively short.

Once the majority of the population have had it, then the shielded group can re enter as it will no longer bre circulating at a high rate.

Nope

We dont know that herd immunity will be the case though. This could he something you can catch multiple times. Its surely equally possible the virus could mutate and be even more dangerous .

We have so little to go on..

Weeks yet. 3 weeks nope.

No, They are going to extend it. BBC is preparing kids educational programs to cover 12 weeks. This gave me the hint that kids wont be going to school any time sooner

The BBC have no idea how long it will last either! They aren’t privy to insider information.

Nope, more chance of biting your arse!

I reckon it will be mid June and then it will be a staggered return to 'normal'.

I assuming the plan is for at least 3 months as the scheme to help self employed people is for 3 months. They wouldn't do that if we were all going to be able to get back to work in April.

No because despite warnings people still went out yesterday for a mess around

No . Covid cases will peak around Easter so lockdown will be extended .

No because despite warnings people still went out yesterday for a mess around

That obviously doesn’t help, but it’s not because of that. Even if none of us had left the house at all for the past 2 weeks, it’s still extremely likely that lockdown would have to be longer than 3 weeks to be effective. China had a much stricter lockdown (and far better compliance i imagine, due to the nature of the regime) and they were still under complete lockdown for 7 weeks.
Due to the nature of the virus, it takes around 3 weeks from contracting it for someone to die. So a 3 week lockdown would always mean that we were still seeing an extremely number of deaths at the end of it. No other country (so far) has had only a 3 week lockdown, most are 6-8 weeks.

slipperywhensparticus

People are allowed out for walks and so on.

@slipperywhensparticus the modelling also factors in non-compliance.

The modelling factors in 50% non compliance, which is pretty shameful really. The government assumes 50% of us won’t do as we’re told for the safety of others.

No.
due to people ignoring the Rules it will be tightened, prob on Monday teatime,but certainly before Easter weekend - for the next 3 weeks.
then another 3 back to this current lockdown
the economy will force furloughed workers back end of May whatever is happening in the NHS / death stats.

No, as far we know it will be reviewed around or on the 13th (?) April. We won’t see the benefits of this current lockdown for another 3 weeks. I think we’ll be in lockdown for another 3 weeks, at least, possibly with tighter restrictions if some people continue to ignore gov guidelines.

Pish, if it takes 2 years to develop a vaccine then so be it, it might be selfish of me, but I still want to have my children at the end of all this. If my dc catch this they will not survive it, it won’t just be the “flu” to either of them.

I know we are in a fortunate position, no DV, no real financial worries, so it’s fairly easy for me to say this, but If we have to self isolate for that long then we will.

Nope I reckon at least another 4 weeks and probably longer.

Can I just ask the people who think the lockdown will go on for 3 months plus, how do the key workers fit in this? This isn’t just the NHS, it’s all the medical industry, all the food industry, carers, supermarket workers and the list goes on. Do they just throw themselves to the wolves while the rest of the population stay safe? I’m not looking for an argument here, I am just interested to see how people think this will work going forward.

Very true Smithy and let's not forget that many of these essential workers are people who are working for minimum wage, I'm not sure if I'd be willing to risk my life for minimum wage, I wouldn't want to be 'virus fodder'
If I was expected to risk my life I would want proper protection and a level of renumeration which reflected the risk

NO - and it will get more restricted as people seem unable to grasp what we have been asked to do.

Actually yes I agree - I think it will get more restricted (no outdoor exercise) so they can then lift the extra restrictions shortly after back to how they are now and make people feel a bit “free-er”