West Midlands hotspot

[middleager]

Can anybody help me to unpick reasons as to why the figures for Birmingham and the West Midlands are so high?

I live in Birmingham and understand it's the second largest city, but Manchester, the third largest city 'only' has 224 cases by comparison.

• the West Midlands accounts for 21 per cent of deaths

• Birmingham has 984 cases, the highest number of cases outside London

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/coronavirus-uk-how-many-confirmed-cases-in-your-area

• The University hospitals Birmingham NHS foundation trust has recorded the third highest number of deaths of any trust in the country at 102 deaths.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/coronavirus-hospitals-west-midlands-full-capacity-by-next-weekend

Apart from the size, my theories include

1. Crufts (50 countries including Italy flying to Birmingham Airport)

2. Cheltenham - up the road from Birmingham. 20k visitors, many travelling via Birmingham New Street and Birmingham Airport?

3. Diamond Cruise - 150 infected passengers flown back to Birmingham Airport and not quarantined.

Sorry DG, that's gone right over my head.

Is Walsall going to be worse because people are unhealthier, or because they won't get as good quality care? Would a healthy person still have the same risk living in Walsall than somewhere else?
Basically can someone reassure me as I currently live in Walsall and am currently terrified.

@Beebityboo if you're healthy, your chances of severe illness are the same wherever you are. If you become seriously ill and are in a place that is struggling for ICU beds, then there's a chance someone "weaker" loses out on a ventilator slot that is given to you. I think that is what it would come down to, were we in the same situation that parts of Italy found themselves in.
Now the Bham Nightingale is open though, then it's likely there'll be enough ventilator beds. I think that was the whole point of it- to ease the load on the other local hospitals.

Beebity I think it's a case of both in the town.

But like KH said, we have the Nightingale now.

And, if you look at the percentages, 3-400 with CV, around 80 I think who have had fatal cases, in a town of 280,000, it is still very low.

Tbh, if I lived in Walsall, I think I'd be more concerned about the life expectancy figures quoted in that link @middleager!
Healthy life expectancy of 57

Tbh this has cemented my decision to finally leave here. DH is on board with a longer commute and I don't want my children growing up somewhere where the life expectancy is so low. Its really opened my eyes and it seems to have gotten worse and worse since we moved here nine years ago.
When this is all over I think we're going to move to Lichfield.

Your personal life expectancy won't change by moving to Lichfield,though it's a nice place. Life expectancy calculations for a region are made on statistics for the wider population. So factors such as health status including neo natal mortality,deprivation, housing eg overcrowding, educational outcomes, employment or otherwise,nutrition etc etc are all part of the picture. So socio-economic factors, existing health problems /lifestyle plus available services all matter.

If you're not at risk in any of those categories then your life expectancy is going to be the same wherever you live. Lichfield house prices are higher as it's perceived as a pleasant place to live but,as you know,there are plenty of happy, healthy people living in Walsall.

Yeah I do know that on a personal level it won't make much difference. It's just cemented the decision in my mind to leave. I always felt that Walsall had a bit of a bad rap and with the arboretum etc it wasn't as bad as people made out, but with the police station closing and crime rising etc it's time to move somewhere we would have a better future as a family and I completely fell in love with Lichfield after visiting last year.
Also on a personal level, I've experienced some trauma here over the years and feel like a fresh start is exactly what is needed.

Well I can see why you'd choose Lichfield over Walsall. I would too. There's a Waitrose there

Beeb I don't know Walsall that well. Bit we did live in an area of the Black Country and I'll be honest its not where I wanted to bring up the kids.

I wasn't originally from there so I did not have the connections that others did. So it was easier to make the decision.

We moved when my eldest was a baby to the South Midlands and I don't ever regret it.

Just the easy access to green spaces we have is so much more pleasant.

I do miss the closeness to Merry Hill though

Although I used to like going on an evening so it would be different now anyway with DC.

Beebity I completely understand why you want to leave.

My mother (74) lived opposite the Arboretum up until recently. I'm glad she's in lockdown now in a completely different part of the country with minimal cases and great healthcare.

The life expectancy age is indeed a shocker. I think this situation has highlighted that, whereas previously you might bury your head in the sand.

That said, my dear old nan lived her whole life in Kingstanding (similar levels of socio economic factors) working some pretty tough jobs in factories and lived to be 99...