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West Midlands hotspot

186 replies

middleager · 04/04/2020 13:34

Can anybody help me to unpick reasons as to why the figures for Birmingham and the West Midlands are so high?

I live in Birmingham and understand it's the second largest city, but Manchester, the third largest city 'only' has 224 cases by comparison.

  • the West Midlands accounts for 21 per cent of deaths
  • Birmingham has 984 cases, the highest number of cases outside London

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/coronavirus-uk-how-many-confirmed-cases-in-your-area

  • The University hospitals Birmingham NHS foundation trust has recorded the third highest number of deaths of any trust in the country at 102 deaths.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/coronavirus-hospitals-west-midlands-full-capacity-by-next-weekend

Apart from the size, my theories include

  1. Crufts (50 countries including Italy flying to Birmingham Airport)

  2. Cheltenham - up the road from Birmingham. 20k visitors, many travelling via Birmingham New Street and Birmingham Airport?

  3. Diamond Cruise - 150 infected passengers flown back to Birmingham Airport and not quarantined.

OP posts:
BovaryX · 09/04/2020 07:43

Ever flown out of Birmingham airport? It's utterly chaotic. Also one of the major international hubs after Heathrow and Gatwick. Nowhere else comes close

Empress
That's interesting. I thought LHR was bad! Population density has got to be a key component, I can't believe what another poster has said about passengers from a cruise ship who were not quarantined. The ricochet effect of those 150 people alone....

GreenTulips · 09/04/2020 08:17

I find some of the attitudes on this thread to be borderline a bit racist

Why? To point out there are thousands of Asian families living in over crowded conditions that will lead to many deaths? Many work in low paid vital jobs as carers, cleaners, shop workers, so are still keeping the country running, yet are more exposed than other families?

You could look at America, same thing replicated with the poor still having to work to feed their families and high risk. No health insurance either.

Africa, absolutely awful conditions, many towns don’t have clean running water.

India, slums 1 million people in 1 square mile - 1 million! Whole families in one room with a shared toilet with 140 other homes.

These people will die. They probably won’t be counted in offices figures.

You have to be realistic about people’s chances.

onlinelinda · 09/04/2020 08:45

It isn't just population density though. Some much quieter areas are also badly affected.

BovaryX · 09/04/2020 08:50

It isn't just population density though. Some much quieter areas are also badly affected

On another thread about Cornwall's low rates of infection, a poster made a very interesting point about skiing holidays. The lockdown in China did not happen until January 23rd, but the virus had been seen as far back as November. By December 30th, doctors were warning their colleagues about it, but travel continued as normal. This period coincided with peak ski season in Europe. Eventually, when the trajectory of this from Wuhan to a global pandemic is analysed, it's likely ski season played a part.

Carrotcakeforbreakfast · 09/04/2020 08:51

I don't think it is racist at all.
Facts are facts.

Mosques have been closed for a long time but people are still getting together to worship together. Not everyone but it is still happening.
The same could be said for other religions but grim statistics back up the theory that there are communities who are not abiding by the rules with this. I think a lot of this will boil down to older generations not speaking English and I think it needs to he relayed to these communities asap.

It is a well known fact that the Asian community have more multi-generational living than non-Asian communities.

It is also statistically correct that the Asian demographic are more likely to have cardiovascular disease, diabetes and the hypertension. These comorbidities are very interlinked.

It is also fact that certain areas of Birmingham are more densely populated than others.
Sparkhill, Bordsley Green, Alum rock etc.
Compare the population densities of these areas with other areas such as
Bournville, Castle Bromwich, Northfield etc.

There is absolutely nothing racist in pointing out statistics. Even if it makes for sad reading.

GreenTulips · 09/04/2020 08:54

And there isn’t blame. It’s just sad facts.

abitoflight · 09/04/2020 08:57

I have never thought Birmingham airport chaotic. Busy yes, chaotic no. My DD's are incensed and going on at me now that I've said it to them.
My most stressful airport experience, and only one of my many times there, was at EMA

Carrotcakeforbreakfast · 09/04/2020 08:58

Greentulip

You're right and I didn't add that.
I feel worried that there seems to be a slow burning fire within these communities and something has to he done to help.

No blame at all.

I find it horrifically sad.

ivykaty44 · 09/04/2020 09:00

middleager

A gp told me on 23 March that there was an epicentre in b/ham around a church, unfortunately the congregation had contracted the virus and of course due to the close proximity of congregation had spread this to many other, who again spread this unwittingly into the community.

SquishySquirmy · 09/04/2020 09:02

I think the racism pp is referring to is not the comments on population densities, comorbidities etc (though I obviously can not speak for them).
It is the implication that "they" are all out and breaching lockdown today and that is why they are dying in higher numbers.

Aside from wether or not certain groups are complying more or less with lockdown, it is not a fact that this is why more from that group have died so far.
Ignoring lockdown rules will be responsible for deaths several weeks from now.
It cannot be said to be responsible for all of yesterday's deaths.

You cannot blame people for breaking rules that did not exist at the time their first household member became infected!

ivykaty44 · 09/04/2020 09:03

BovaryX

Interested the WHO released details of Coronavirus on 31 December and immediately Taiwan stopped daily flights and put preventative measure into practice. There contagion rates are far lower

Random18 · 09/04/2020 09:09

I think Birmingham Airport is better than many. I flew out Luton last year and never again!!

We should have been at Birmingham airport this week Sad

BovaryX · 09/04/2020 09:10

and immediately Taiwan stopped daily flights and put preventative measure into practice. There contagion rates are far lower

Precisely. Meanwhile, flights to the rest of the world continued. There is a great New York Times article about the chronology of this virus. I will post a link.

Gin96 · 09/04/2020 09:11

This is interesting

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52219070

Carrotcakeforbreakfast · 09/04/2020 09:29

Thing with incubation and how long it takes for someone to recover/die is variable.
Average incubation is 5 days.

And older person with diabetes are more likely to die sooner than a healthy 22 year old.
So I do believe we are seeing people who have contracted this after lockdown and unfortunately some of those may have already died.

HoffiCoffi13 · 09/04/2020 09:34

Interesting discussion. My closest hospital is Derby (although I live out in the countryside) which is also pretty hard hit. DH and I were discussing last night why that might be, and I think a lot of the same reasons may apply.

middleager · 09/04/2020 09:53

Derby was the area first Midlands area to be hit I think. It had cases before Birmingham.

Bovary here is the piece on the passengers who were flown back.

www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/brits-quarantined-coronavirus-cruise-ship-17907449

To the pp who mentioned racism.
I'm sorry if you feel some posts have come across that way, it was never the intention of the thread.

However, according to some preliminary research, BAME communities are being hit hardest (for various suggested reasons) and I think all of us should be concerned about that.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52219070

You also mentioned Bradford not experiencing issues with CV (unless I am mistaken?) Sadly figures do seem to be rising there too with 39 deaths and 204 cases, although you are right that it's not a hotspot:

www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18365008.coronavirus-bradford-cases-18-reaching-200-yesterday/

www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18363973.coronavirus-bradford-death-toll-virus-jumps-six/

OP posts:
middleager · 09/04/2020 09:54

Gin I see you beat me to it!

OP posts:
ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 09/04/2020 09:56

Diabetes and related conditions are much more prevalent in South Asian communities so that alone will increase the risk of a poor outcome from CV.
www.diabetes.org.uk/about_us/news/young-south-asian-people-at-higher-risk-of-diabetes-and-associated-heart-disease

I do think communication is a major issue. My DH is North African and there are plenty of reports from North African doctors, in Arabic, who are working in places like Italy and France. If you have a doctor speaking your mother tongue talking about how bad it really is then it is much more hard hitting.

Clavinova · 09/04/2020 10:28

So what's the explanation for the hotspot around Gwent/Aneurin Bevan Health Trust? Is that a half-term holiday influx too?
Actually a quick google answers my own questions about why Gwent's a hotspot

A couple of things the link didn't consider:

Newport is an international port (described as a major port) - cargo (and crew?) back and forth from Italy, France, Spain and China listed...
Also a UK cruise port since 2017 - although mainly Baltic cruises/Ireland crew may be interchangeable - there may have been an unlucky exposure/super spreader;

www.fredolsentravelagents.co.uk/cruises-from/newport

www.walesonline.co.uk/whats-on/whats-on-news/giant-cruise-ship-arrived-newport-13127100

Also, in the 2017 report from Gwent Regional Partnership Board/Aneurin Bevan University Health Board;

"Newport City is the third largest urban centre in Wales with a population of 146,84.The city has the second largest number of people from minority ethnic communities of all the Welsh counties (after Cardiff) and has continued to increase since 2009 when the figure was estimated at 6.6% of the population." Ethnic minorities are apparently more susceptible to coronavirus.

EmpressMcSchnozzle · 09/04/2020 15:00

@abitoflight Maybe I was just unlucky with my Birmingham "cattle crate" experiences then. ;) (I do hate Heathrow even more. That really is like one of the inner circles of hell. Mostly I'd fly from small regional airports like Bristol, Exeter, Newcastle or Belfast, deliberately. But there've been a few times when Birmingham was the only choice. As insanely large airports go - if we're ever able to fly anywhere again - Schipol would be my airport of choice. When I first started flying anywhere, about 30 years ago now, it was still a pleasant experience. It has got worse and worse since, and although I enjoy travel and seeing other countries - or I did - flying is now the worst bit. Ever since 9/11.)

Changing the subject to accusations of racism, Leicester Uni/Hospital have literally just released (in the last 2 days) some initial research based on recent UK critical care figures that seem to indicate those from a BAME background are more at risk. And I can't be the only one who has noticed how many healthcare workers who've lost their lives early on in this pandemic have been BAME. There is also some information from the USA which is suggesting similar findings although it's hampered as not everyone is collecting the same statistics. New Orleans and, I think, Detroit or other Michigan locations are high up the "pay attention" list.

This isn't racist. It's trying to find out whether those groups genuinely are more at risk, and if so, why; once you know the 'whys' you can then see if there is anything that can be done to help.

Diabetes has been mentioned as a potential risk factor and some BAME groups are known to be very much at risk of that; obviously respiratory issues also (I'm from the generation that got the BCG as standard but not everyone does now; I still remember my war generation parents talking about TB in hushed tones); renal; and cardio.

This is a novel virus, so at the moment little is known, still, about how it behaves, but medics and scientists from around the world are contributing to the knowledge out there at a rate I've never seen before. There is masses in the public domain via sites like Pubmed and some parts of the NHS, but a lot of the mainstream media isn't heading for those science, evidence-based sites, but for sensationalism.

I also agree on the "mother tongue" mention above - since English is the main language of communication for science and medicine it's rare to see things translated into anything else (maybe Spanish, French, German, Arabic and Chinese, if you're lucky) but I've come across a site recently where the basic NHS information was translated, by medics, into 34 languages. It really pulled me up short. My first degree was foreign languages so I've always had an interest.

On a separate note, there is unlikely to be a quick fix for this, however much President Trump and the rest of us might wish it. It took 10 years for very experienced scientists to work out the probable origin of SARS (in a bat-cave in China); it took centuries for people to work out what it was that caused the Black Death (I don't mean the rats and/or the carpet and/or the fleas, plus travel, plus lack of hygiene, plus weather, plus health levels & knowledge, I mean Yersinia Pestis itself) so I'd be surprised if we know the real truth about where this came from in the very near future, for all our technology. But if you want to look at how it's likely to spread, the transport links and/or large gatherings are probably as good a place to start as any.

Now that many aircraft are finally grounded, the shipping trade routes would probably be a good place to look for the likely global pattern. Within the UK, look at the motorways, A roads, and trains. The trade and transport routes, after all, were how the Black Death and other pandemics spread. Well, with a bit of help in the early stages from people fleeing the cities too. In England, the village of Eyam was a bit of an outlier and their actions probably saved many lives. It was the medieval equivalent of that little match animation on Facebook, where the match steps out and the rest don't catch fire.

At the moment we're concentrating on getting through day to day, maintain good hygiene, eating sensibly, and keeping our immune systems in as good condition as possible. We obey the sensible bits of the advice we're being given, check the facts, and support the healthcare workers and the others helping to keep the country going.

ivykaty44 · 09/04/2020 15:19

Gin96

It’s largely due to the minorities having lower paid jobs where face to face interactions are far greater, many bus drivers for example have died- they cant work from home, cleaners, HCP, Shopkeeprs, store stackers. Better paid jobs often are more adaptable to working from home - not always.
Consequently the key workers are often low paid and more at risk

DGRossetti · 09/04/2020 15:50

@EmpressMcSchnozzle

Far too much sense in that post for the internet. Well, the UK internet leastways.

Here's some interesting science ...

www.nature.com/news/neanderthal-dna-affects-ethnic-differences-in-immune-response-1.20854

Two gene-expression studies could explain why people of African descent respond more strongly to infection, and are more prone to autoimmune diseases.

EmpressMcSchnozzle · 10/04/2020 01:47

@DGRossetti Thank you, I can think of a couple of people who would be interested in that article (including me) so I'll forward the link.

Thank you for the nice comment about "sense" by the way - I usually get threatened with being burned at the stake, metaphorically speaking, when I raise my head above the parapet on forums!! (Or is it fora?!) (And I think it's metaphorical, anyway...better have a fire blanket ready just in case though. And maybe a bucket of water on top of the door...)

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