West Midlands hotspot

[middleager]

Can anybody help me to unpick reasons as to why the figures for Birmingham and the West Midlands are so high?

I live in Birmingham and understand it's the second largest city, but Manchester, the third largest city 'only' has 224 cases by comparison.

• the West Midlands accounts for 21 per cent of deaths

• Birmingham has 984 cases, the highest number of cases outside London

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/coronavirus-uk-how-many-confirmed-cases-in-your-area

• The University hospitals Birmingham NHS foundation trust has recorded the third highest number of deaths of any trust in the country at 102 deaths.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/coronavirus-hospitals-west-midlands-full-capacity-by-next-weekend

Apart from the size, my theories include

1. Crufts (50 countries including Italy flying to Birmingham Airport)

2. Cheltenham - up the road from Birmingham. 20k visitors, many travelling via Birmingham New Street and Birmingham Airport?

3. Diamond Cruise - 150 infected passengers flown back to Birmingham Airport and not quarantined.

Slough is also a hot spot which also fits with the multi occupancy / generational housing issue.

With limits on food, bigger house holds will need to shop more for a start.

It can just be chance. Where the first few people to arrive with Covid-19 landed, and how many people they spread it to. In those very early phases of the epidemic it's just happenstance whether somewhere ends up, effectively, a week or two ahead or behind somewhere else.

Thanks for the information.
It seems to vary so much by area (relatives in Bristol where figures are relatively low).

Yes, @midgebabe.
I googled the answer to my own question and came up with that conclusion too.
Apparently, Cumbria has a high elderly population.
The first reported case in Cumbria, I read, was reported on March 3rd which is roughly 2 weeks after the February half term holiday.
That first case was reported when there were only 24 reported cases in the country.
Cumbria seems to have been affected very early.

I’m in the Black Country too and work for a local authority so currently involved in our response to the pandemic. Some of the theories I’ve heard discussed are the high numbers living in poverty which add to overall poor health/lower life expectancy plus high unemployment and lower standards of living as a result. The high BAME population, and I’ve also interestingly heard that Wolves played a big European match just before many of the lockdowns and thousands flew over to Spain (I think) to watch then brought it back.

We also had so much negative press about fights and stockpilers swarming the shops right up to lockdown, with many of the tabloids using local pictures of crowds, so I’m ashamed to say the adherence and h understanding of many round here seems poor to say the least. As a key worker having to go in every day I despair at the selfishness of so many.

I was at RHH last week. It was quiet. A couple of the nurses actually commented how nice it was because it was quiet.

I think there are several reasons

1. General over crowding in the BAME communities.
2. Lack of adherence to “lockdown” particularly in the Muslim community. I drove past a mosque on Friday and there were large numbers of men coming out after praying.
3. Areas of derivation.
4. Due to its industrial past many people have lung disease.
5. Superspreaders. Due to where I work and information I have access to, I could pinpoint the places of worship and areas that will/have been affected.

It’s worth noting that Birmingham local authority area has about double the population to Manchester. Much of Manchester is actually comprises Salford, Trafford and other boroughs....

I agree with Crufts and New St being a transport hub but I think people are writing off the significance of the Wolves-Espanyol game. It may not be the world’s biggest stadium but thousands of people travelled from Barcelona to watch it and probably brought it over. Likewise, the following week thousands of wolves fans (and it’s a team with heavily localised support) went to Barcelona to watch the return leg. It absolutely contributed to the spread.

Liverpool played Atletico Madrid about 3 weeks later, and Liverpool is predicted to be one of the next hot spots. Absolute madness to cart 3000 people over to Liverpool from Madrid when Madrid was reporting such high numbers.

Bergamo has been horribly hit - about a third of the population of Bergamo travelled to Milan to play a football match against a Spanish team a few weeks before it all exploded there.

Sporting events should have been shut down much sooner, and I really think it’s played its part in why the West Midlands is ruined, though I agree that the other factors such as multi generational households play a role as well.

I think there are a number of factors.
Population density in the West Midlands authorities is high, particularly Birmingham, Walsall, Sandwell, Dudley, Coventry.
There are many areas with high deprivation, and even those that aren't "deprived" have lower levels of income than many other areas of England. As a consequence of these general living conditions, along with highly polluted air in most urban West Midlands areas, the general health of people in this area is poor, certainly below national averages- there are high levels of obesity, of acquired diabetes, of heart disease, lung/respiratory conditions inc. asthma, all of which are indicated as underlying conditions that exacerbate Covid-19.

That's without looking at any behavioural factors.

One thing of note- in the early stages of the pandemic in Britain, Birmingham was right near the bottom for numbers of cases, when Devon, Hampshire, London we're at the top. Well- there aren't many families in Birmingham that ski, that's for sure!

Now, later along the curve, when we're seeing the effects of the virus passed within the population, now Birmingham is up at the top.

But remember- Birmingham authority is a mega-authority. It has a higher population than other authorities (Greater Manchester as was is divided between ten authorities, London also divided into small authorities)
You would expect Birmingham to have more cases than other authorities.

I fear the death rates will be higher here than other areas due to the variables I have detailed above.

It should also be noted that the new QE2 hospital (who knew it was based on a US prison design ?) is massive and might skew the figures if they aren't taking account of exactly where in the region they are being collected.

Also the Childrens hospital receives patients from all over the country - or world, if you remember Malala.

The Birmingham water is amazing carrot cake it comes from the Elan valley in Wales.

The Birmingham water is amazing carrot cake it comes from the Elan valley in Wales.

I've reported your post and asked for it to be deleted . Otherwise news of (SW) Birminghams immunity to water shortages might become public knowledge and people think it's some sort of black magic, as the real truth that it was carefully planned for over 100 years ago would never be believed. Nobody in Britain could ever believe that it's possible to plan for the future. Or so we are being told ....

DGR not sure about the water Shropshire and Worcestershire received in February

not sure about the water Shropshire and Worcestershire received in February

If it's not already gone, it will be by June .

We need to be more strict. If people refuse to comply and continue to gather in groups then the doors to religious buildings should be welded shut to stop them from entering.

Sleeping (waves from up the road). That's deeply worrying.

Please pass on my thanks to your nurse friend, who's on the frontline of this.

We can only hope local community leaders can get the word out. But stable door and bolted spring to mind.

Kingsheathen
Interesting read.

I wish I were in Kings Heath tonight watching live music at The Hare & Hounds

Birmingham City University has an exchange partnership with Wuhan Textile University - has anyone checked that connection?

www.bcu.ac.uk/international/bifca/our-partnership/wuhan-textile-university

@DGRossetti - About The QE design - I knew - After it was finished it suddenly occurred to the planners that it had been built without a Morgue & the roof wasn't actually strong enough to take the weight of an air ambulance !