West Midlands hotspot

[middleager]

Can anybody help me to unpick reasons as to why the figures for Birmingham and the West Midlands are so high?

I live in Birmingham and understand it's the second largest city, but Manchester, the third largest city 'only' has 224 cases by comparison.

• the West Midlands accounts for 21 per cent of deaths

• Birmingham has 984 cases, the highest number of cases outside London

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/coronavirus-uk-how-many-confirmed-cases-in-your-area

• The University hospitals Birmingham NHS foundation trust has recorded the third highest number of deaths of any trust in the country at 102 deaths.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/coronavirus-hospitals-west-midlands-full-capacity-by-next-weekend

Apart from the size, my theories include

1. Crufts (50 countries including Italy flying to Birmingham Airport)

2. Cheltenham - up the road from Birmingham. 20k visitors, many travelling via Birmingham New Street and Birmingham Airport?

3. Diamond Cruise - 150 infected passengers flown back to Birmingham Airport and not quarantined.

God reading this thread makes me realise measures that haven't been implemented in the UK. No wonder the number of cases are so high.

I live in Australia and all crossing between states is banned. Pretty much all non-resident travel into the country is banned. All residents returning are put into government isolation for 14 days.

From this thread, it is apparent that international travel and a lot of internal travel is still happening. The government are relying on telling people what to do and basically appealing to their better nature.

It is obviously not working. I think the lack of action by the government is bordering on criminal.

Thinking there is not much travel happening. Residents are returning but hotels are closed so there are no tourists.

People are told no unnecessary travel. Some are ignoring it but the vast majority are complying.

UK has made mistakes but so has Austrailia but we are also 2 different countries in 2 completely different parts of the world and geography is important here.

I am not really sure how much benefit quarantine new arrivals would have? We are pretty much told to stay at home anyway.

You cannot compare the West Midlands with Austrailia.

I think that the UK absolutely should be looking at places in which the transmission is lowering and thinking about if it is possible to introduce some of those measures in the UK.

There is one aspect of geography that UK and Australia do share - they are islands!

My point is that the UK is relying on compliance, whereas Australia has rules and laws. Like you say some are ignoring the guidance in the UK. I've just been reading in other threads about how people are still going on holiday.

In Australia there is apparently only 10% local community transmission which is probably why shutting international travel has made so much of a difference, while we have a bit more freedom.

Australia has made mistakes. The huge one being the cruise fiasco, which is responsible for 25% of cases. Another cruise ship has resulted in 135 passengers returning through Birmingham with no checks. Although I understand they have been asked to self-isolate. The american passengers were taken for testing and then placed in 14-day quarantine. Again why not learn from another country - this time in terms of its mistakes!

The UK is on lockdown. There have been laws put in place for the lockdown. So I don't understand your point.

The UK is an Island yes, but we are also a manor transport hub and have very close relations with our neighbours (even if some would rather that was not the case).

The passengers returning from the cruise through Birmingham Airport are not the reason for the explosion in cases in the West Midlands. They only returned on 13th March and CV would already have been circulating in the community long before then. They may have contributed to cases however.

Whilst I live in the WM I do not live in Birmingham or the Black Country which is worst affected. There are far fewer cases here. The demographics are different. Our population density is different.

I do hope the UK controls our borders more actively once we have it under control and they need to test and contact trace.

As of yesterday the UK was still letting people in ...

Andy Brown
@VoteAndyBrown
Flight IB3166 from Madrid has just landed at Heathrow - the passengers will shortly be walking out of the airport without any meaningful checks and travelling across the UK. Heathrow says it is following government guidelines. We must therefore blame the government.

It is true that some of the population will be at slightly higher risk due to increased prevalence of diabetes and perhaps intergenerational living but it will be mostly be because it is a huge city and the largest outside of London. Whilst there was no underground trains and buses are used heavily and Birmingham new Street is always very busy.

I don't see that it will be anything to do with people not observing lockdown as the current deaths will be due to people getting infected before the lockdown.

Flight IB3166 from Madrid has just landed at Heathrow - the passengers will shortly be walking out of the airport without any meaningful checks and travelling across the UK. Heathrow says it is following government guidelines. We must therefore blame the government.

The horse has long since bolted on that one. CV is endemic here now, the UK is as bad as anywhere including Spain. Letting the few people that are still travelling here in (who will be few and far between) as long as they subsequently abide by the lockdown, isn’t going to make matters worse.

Insisting on quarantine at airport hotels would be an unnecessary expense and arguably require more people to be working out in the community servicing these arrangements than is necessary.

Flight IB3166 from Madrid has just landed at Heathrow - the passengers will shortly be walking out of the airport without any meaningful checks and travelling across the UK. Heathrow says it is following government guidelines

That is insane. Functioning countries have closed their borders and impose quarantine on citizens who are returning. Temperature checks mandatory. What possible point is there in social isolation if travelers are allowed to return home without any checks on whether they are carrying the virus?

What possible point is there in social isolation if travelers are allowed to return home without any checks on whether they are carrying the virus?

Given we are where we are, it makes no more sense to temperature check arrivals at airports than it does temperature checking everyone who leaves the house. An arrival at a UK airport is no more likely to be infected with CV than the person in the queue in front of you at Tesco....In fact, given the current situation they are probably less likely.

Getting irate over this is like getting cross over dropping a teaspoon of dirty water into a bucket of already dirty water, saying the teaspoon of water will make the water dirty!

What possible point is there in social isolation if travelers are allowed to return home without any checks on whether they are carrying the virus?

Considering that there are no checks on people living here despite it being endemic what is the point on checking people coming in?

an arrival at a UK airport is no more likely to be infected with CV

I am not in the UK. Allowing passengers to arrive at UK airports and enter the UK with zero temperature checks? And travel to wherever they live, potentially setting off a chain reaction of infection? Functioning countries have shut down their borders and families are separated because of the necessity of trying to control the spread of this virus. The paradigm the UK has adopted is peculiar.

I do hope the UK controls our borders more actively once we have it under control and they need to test and contact trace.

Why wait?

The horse has long since bolted on that one. CV is endemic here now, the UK is as bad as anywhere including Spain.

That is very probably true - but action is still possible.

Letting the few people that are still travelling here in (who will be few and far between) as long as they subsequently abide by the lockdown, isn’t going to make matters worse.

They only let 4 passengers into Australia from the cruise ship with CV. All the other passengers were asked to self-isolate. That caused 25% of cases. If you consider that was 2000 passengers from one ship - there must be at least 2000 entering the UK every day, scattered all over the country. With a transmission rate of 2.5 even a few people with CV can cause thousands of cases within 5 days.

Insisting on quarantine at airport hotels would be an unnecessary expense and arguably require more people to be working out in the community servicing these arrangements than is necessary.

It is possible to do with relatively low contact. Many governments have decided that it is possible and will foot the bill - compare the response of the USA and UK governments to the return of passengers from the cruise ship in Oregon.

There seems to an attitude of acceptance and inevitably that this virus needs to run its course. That is rubbish. None of this is inevitable and countries can make decisions that can have an effect. I have a relative in their 90s in a nursing home in the south west and am very scared for her. It is reported in the guardian today that deaths are increasing in care homes and underreported.

The transmission and death rate in the UK is much high than it could have been. I don't get the complacency. And if we are going to compare Australia and the UK. People here were fucking angry with the lack of action by the government until they stepped up a couple of weeks ago. Look at the effect - cases reducing in Australia and approximately 50 deaths compared to nearly 8000 for the UK. Consider as well that China is the largest trading partner for Australia, there is a very large Asian population here and a huge european tourist economy.

I am not saying that Australia has managed this perfectly. I am saying that the UK government has handled it badly.

I do hope the UK controls our borders more actively once we have it under control and they need to test and contact trace.

But ... but ... think of the economy. Surely it's better to risk a few dead Britons than Richard Bransons dividends ?

In reality, it might be other countries that force the UK to wise up. As that start putting up signs that end "...no Brits"

( Richard Bransons Dividends has a vaguely iambic feel to it. Could easily form a line in a pop sing. Or a haiku.)

@Thinkinghappythoughts

If the people arriving here (and they would only be doing so for very good reasons currently - no holidaymakers or non-essential travel) abided by the rules, they are no different to anyone else.

Australia is different as it doesn’t seem to be endemic there, and if I were Australia I’d definitely be looking to quarantine new arrivals.

But the 100 or so arrivals on a plane are no more likely to be infected than the 60,000,000 who are already here. It really is like worrying about putting a teaspoon of dirty water in a swimming pool of dirty water. Effectively managing the current lockdown is the way to suppress CV.

Worrying about airport arrivals is completely the wrong focus, though we should be ensuring they are arriving for bona fide reasons (ie essential work etc.)

Well the economy is kind of critical................

Branson's dividends not quite so much

In reality, it might be other countries that force the UK to wise up. As that start putting up signs that end "...no Brits"

They already are and have been for weeks... It’s like you’re living in a world of a month ago. Outsiders coming here aren’t really a threat. We’re now the threat to countries where it is not endemic!

Thinking maybe Austrailia can sit it out until a vaccine is found? 18 months or so until your borders are open again?

I don't think the UK can afford to do that. Once the cases are under control the UK will need to start opening up again and community transmission will start again.

I don't know what they will do with regards to borders long term.

Butni would be interested to know how many people fly in/ out UK daily(normally) compared to Australia?

Well the economy is kind of critical................

It's also a man made construct. Unlike human lives. Maybe it needs reconstructing ?

Well since economy is being deconsrructed at the moment maybe it can be rebuilt differently.

I do think there is a balance though. And economic impacts do need to be considered as well as health consequences of the lockdown.

Ultimately though we are not anywhere near the end of the pandemic so we don't know of the success of any countries policy.

And i don't see how you can compare the fate of the West Midlands and the reason why it is bad here with the massive country that is Australia

And i don't see how you can compare the fate of the West Midlands and the reason why it is bad here with the massive country that is Australia

Well you can compare and maybe glean something useful from the similarities/differences ?

At the end of the day, I would hazard a guess that the average Brits travelling around the UK will turn out to be a significant - and unique - factor in the spread of C-19. I bet the average Brit commutes further and more often than in France, Germany ... pretty much guaranteeing we all get equally exposed that much quicker.

The absence of such data alone raises my spidey senses ....

I would have guessed the airport. Isnt it one of the UKs biggest? Surely people are not going around to others houses to prey in groups? Thats the height of arrogance.

DGR ageee with you there. If it were now for lockdown/ CV I would have travelled pretty extensively in the UK in March / April. And I would have used the airport.

Instead my Google timeline says I went to Birmingham (beginning of March) and stayed local the rest of the time.

Shit. Walsall is officially the worse place to be right now in the UK if you have CV.

A new report, 'Covid-19 local area risk rating:
Which local authorities face the greatest health risk from COVID-19?' has been published.

www.progressive-policy.net/publications/covid-19-local-area-risk-rating

Key finding:

The West Midlands is the new immediate battleground against COVID-19. It has a relatively high number of cases and an even higher level of systemic vulnerability.

I've started another thread about this report:

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3878191-Covid-19-local-area-risk-rating-Which-local-authorities-face-the-greatest-health-risk-from-COVID-19

www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/west-midlands-residents-face-highest-18077667

Shit. Walsall is officially the worse place to be right now in the UK if you have CV

Which suggests it wasn't too bad without CV, so goes to show you can only do so much with raw data