West Midlands hotspot

[middleager]

Can anybody help me to unpick reasons as to why the figures for Birmingham and the West Midlands are so high?

I live in Birmingham and understand it's the second largest city, but Manchester, the third largest city 'only' has 224 cases by comparison.

• the West Midlands accounts for 21 per cent of deaths

• Birmingham has 984 cases, the highest number of cases outside London

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/coronavirus-uk-how-many-confirmed-cases-in-your-area

• The University hospitals Birmingham NHS foundation trust has recorded the third highest number of deaths of any trust in the country at 102 deaths.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/coronavirus-hospitals-west-midlands-full-capacity-by-next-weekend

Apart from the size, my theories include

1. Crufts (50 countries including Italy flying to Birmingham Airport)

2. Cheltenham - up the road from Birmingham. 20k visitors, many travelling via Birmingham New Street and Birmingham Airport?

3. Diamond Cruise - 150 infected passengers flown back to Birmingham Airport and not quarantined.

I dont think Wolves attracts many fans

Don't let my husband hear you say that VeganVeal.

@Gingernaut

-* Poor levels of health to begin with

• Chronic industrial respiratory diseases from heavy industry*

You do know that Birmingham isn't some industrial hell hole where we all live in back to backs amongst the smog don't you?

Anecdotally, a lot of my service users who are older males, are not observing social distancing. Places of worship have been closed. So people go to worship around someone's house Instead. I've been told they're doing this by 5 people last week and all I can do is repeat government guidelines

The theory around BAME communities is interesting. I wonder if it is due to poverty and overcrowding, which is rife in the west mids.

I do think there's still an attitude of its not important. I spoke to a friend from na the other day. He says coronavirus is bollocks, that it only affects the elderly and I'm being paranoid by staying at home as much as I can. Not only is social distancing rubbish apparently, but it's also impossible to do. He proudly told me he was spending all day out of his flat. He's still meeting people for walks and didn't know it was against the rules because he doesn't listen to the news because it's all scaremongering and political shite apparently. When I told him you weren't allowed to meet friends for walks he said isolation makes his MH bad. I offered different ways of caring for your MH but he brushed them away - if he gets it he's certain he will be fine and is carrying on as normal. He puts his recovery above coronavirus apparently and cannot not see people. I told him about the really good and supportive wattaapp groups and online meetings we have but he doesn't want to do those. Apparently the government are over egging it because addiction kills more. Yes it does but there's also some element of choice, or at least a decision with addiction. Not that it's easy of course, but ultimately you decide to put a needle in your arm or take a pill or a drink etc. No one chooses to get csrona ffs. He was seriously telling me I'm paranoid and ocd for being concerned and following government guidelines. And I'm not someone who wears a mask to the supermarket! This is an intelligent person and yes it was only one - but I imagine his friends who are meeting up are putting themselves at risk. They're all still going to the shop to buy food and cigarettes and beer. The cashier will serve so many people and each of those have families to pass it onto. Its easy to see how my friend could quite easily infect hundreds and I'm actually very cross with him because despite knowing the risks he still ignores it. He's not oblivious. He knows the risk, but his ego tells him he knows best.

I've also, on online meetings seen members driving a car with another person in and I know for a fact those people don't live together. I've heard members say they went to the shop to buy some cigarattes and how that's justified. I've heard members say they met their friend at the park or had their mum over for dinner. I've heard people say that their friends are downstairs drinking, they're at a house party socialising but they aren't drinking so it's all good. And I do get really judgy and cross and angry. Because this isn't taking fido for a long walk on a field 5miles from your home. This isn't nipping to the shop for milk that while it isn't actually essential, your toddler won't sleep without it. This isn't insisting on going to see your dad after his wife passed away. The last 3 are breaking the rules but understandable too in a way. The rest though aren't. And these meetings are online meetings in the west mids.

Maybe the sea air depressed Covid activity ? After all Birmingham is probably as far as it is possible to be from the sea in Britain.

A couple of thoughts, apart from the fact it's the 2nd biggest city.

1. Ever flown out of Birmingham airport? It's utterly chaotic. Also one of the major international hubs after Heathrow and Gatwick. Nowhere else comes close.

1. Cheltenham. See 1.

1. It's smack bang in the middle of the country, pretty much. Major, major transport hubs. NEC, motorway network, Birmingham New Street....huge universities, large hospitals, large factories....

1. Population density. If you look at the hotspots, people are generally all packed in together, like sardines. It's probably not that the more rural parts of the UK/less densely packed cities will get it, it'll just take a bit longer. If you watch how ideas and fashions and everything else generally spreads through the UK - starts in London, heads up to Brum, over to Manchester, maybe up to Glasgow, possibly over to Edinburgh then down to Newcastle/up into the less populated parts of Newcastle, in some ways this seems to be following a similar sort of pattern.

There will obviously be other factors too, but I'm bemused that no one seems to have even mentioned population density yet. (Though I could have missed it. I've been a bit preoccupied watching the highlights from the US Barney Rubble Comedy Show every night.)

Edited to add, when I say nowhere else comes close in terms of size, airport wise, I mean in England. Obviously somewhere like Dublin is a major, major hub.

Yes, population density and bad air quality due to horrendous traffic. DH and I both work in Birmingham and probably caught it there. I've decided not to go back after this. It's a great city with fabulous people, but every day is too much now.

We are now lucky enough to live out of the city - I have many fond memories of our old inner-city neighbourhood but I really wouldn't fancy being in lockdown there. It's genuinely difficult to keep 2m apart with so many people living in close proximity, and remembering how some of our neighbours behaved in ordinary times makes me really glad I am not stuck next to them right now with nowhere to go!

I'm not sure we can blame certain communities "not adhering to lockdown" for the deaths so far...

Many (most?) of those who died today we're infected BEFORE lockdown surely?

Which is not to say that ignoring lockdown isn't stupid... It is and it will cost lives.
But I don't think it is accurate to say that lack of adherence to lockdown rules is to blame for today's deaths.

The thing is, before lockdown was officially announced the general consensus was that people should stay home and no go out unnecessarily. For example my bank employer had already told all of us to work from home. And I distinctly remember people being shamed on social media for going clubbing etc.

I think someone should study the spread of viruses vs the spread of fashion as per Empress above (serious).

Just watching the local news.

They were saying that the peak will be later than thought but don't think it will be as bad as initially feared.

And they do not they will run out of ventilators.

The NEC will be for recovering patients. Sickest will be in hospitals.

Lots of theories here thanks. It is making me wonder long time if, after 46 years here, it is time to move when my children finish school.

As I get older I want access to better healthcare, cleaner air etc. and this is highlighting that that's missing.

I say this with a heavy heart as my mother and father's families are Brummies for as far back as we can trace (technically Astonians).

Somebody died on a friend's road in Walsall. About 20 people gathered at the terraced house on the morning of the funeral.
Unfortunately, this was an Asian family and this demographic are being hit hard.

Another cause?

www.expressandstar.com/news/crime/2020/04/08/reports-of-pubs-and-restaurants-being-open-across-walsall-despite-lockdown/

Thanks Random I was wondering about The Nightingale and whether that would have the very sick in.

I must admit to not having looke at the detail as it feels very close to home.

Re adhering to social distancing, I was embarrassed to see Walsall in the national news yesterday after a teenager was caught repeatedly flouting the rules:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-birmingham-52200369

After all Birmingham is probably as far as it is possible to be from the sea in Britain

Aye, @DGRossetti, this is one of the main things I hate about it!

but I'm bemused that no one seems to have even mentioned population density yet

I did, @EmpressMcSchnozzle, but tbf, I'm not giving press conferences each evening

Population density and poverty. 46% of children in maintained secondary schools Birmingham are on FSM. 46%
That's a shocking figure.
Poverty leads to the health conditions that put people at most risk from this virus. It creates the housing conditions that prevent families from isolating a member that was exposed to the virus. It puts people at risk because they're in the types of job that cannot be done WFH.

And Birmingham has now made it to #1 hotspot

I guess a celebration parade is out of the question ? There must be a way to demonstrate civic pride, surely ? Any suggestions ?

@DGRossetti

I find some of the attitudes on this thread to be borderline a bit racist. If the Asian community are to blame for high numbers why isn't that replication seen in other Asian areas like Bradford?
All mosques are closed btw but carry on spreading far right bullshit.

browzingz the advice to wfh etc only came shortly before the full lockdown.
It really was not that long ago at all that we were being told to just wash our hands more.

The time from catching the disease, to then developing the first symptoms, to those symptoms becoming severe enough to be hospitalised, to then eventually dying (often after being in hospital for some time) varies case to case. But many of those dead so far will have contracted the disease during that period of early March when there were no rules to break!
Yes, many people were already taking precautions based on their own judgement of the situation but I can't blame those who weren't. The risk was downplayed until very recently really - it seems like an age ago because so much has happened since then!
Check news stories from 1 month ago.

Certainly my employer would not have entertained the idea of us WFH 1 month ago... It was "not much worse than flu" (according to them when I raised the possibility that we should ensure all employees had laptops with VPNs on just in case.)
I appreciate that certain big banks etc had a different approach and moved sooner. But most people and employers followed the lead and general tone of the government etc.

Indeed, @flashbac, my colleagues said their mosques were closed a week before schools even closed!

I think the amount of travel between London and the West Midlands, both daily and weekly, is a major contributor.

Another argument against HS2 then.

Diamond Cruise - 150 infected passengers flown back to Birmingham Airport and not quarantined

Good grief, is that true? When did that happen? How completely insane.