West Midlands hotspot

[middleager]

Can anybody help me to unpick reasons as to why the figures for Birmingham and the West Midlands are so high?

I live in Birmingham and understand it's the second largest city, but Manchester, the third largest city 'only' has 224 cases by comparison.

• the West Midlands accounts for 21 per cent of deaths

• Birmingham has 984 cases, the highest number of cases outside London

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/coronavirus-uk-how-many-confirmed-cases-in-your-area

• The University hospitals Birmingham NHS foundation trust has recorded the third highest number of deaths of any trust in the country at 102 deaths.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/coronavirus-hospitals-west-midlands-full-capacity-by-next-weekend

Apart from the size, my theories include

1. Crufts (50 countries including Italy flying to Birmingham Airport)

2. Cheltenham - up the road from Birmingham. 20k visitors, many travelling via Birmingham New Street and Birmingham Airport?

3. Diamond Cruise - 150 infected passengers flown back to Birmingham Airport and not quarantined.

Birmingham has a Chinatown too - could that be a connection

Of course it isn't and even if it was it doesn't really matter.

All that matters is slowing the spread so that the hospitals do not exceed capacity and people die as a result.

All the universities in Birmingham have lots of international students, particularly from China. And many students would have gone home over Christmas break. However none of the universities really reported on cases of covid so I doubt it was much of an issue.

Our church has an online sermon on You tube and a zoom in chat session s well. We are all staying home as required.

Oooo the hare and hounds in Kings Heath. Takes me back to my student days!

Cheltenham racecourse is 50 miles away from Birmingham.

Birmingham is part of the second largest conurbation in the UK. So you’d expect large numbers of infections.

Birmingham has a Chinatown too - could that be a connection

China is a massive country of course but we know that the virus originated in Wuhan - you can pretend the outbreak started in Covent Garden Market if it makes you feel better. Interesting that it's Wuhan Textile University - the textile industry is Italy's connection to China as well.

The orthodox Jewish population in Israel have also been hard hit; they ignored the rules re social distancing and continued gathering in the yeshivas to study. Lockdown is pretty strict now though.

Birningham did indeed make a slow start. I was watching closely at the time and the first figures hit East Mids (Derby) first, then Dudley.

PP mentioned the pictures of Tesco Dudley in the media. My relatives in Bristol have been gobsmacked at the situation in supermarkets here as they could get all food (even flour!) without mass queues.

I remember in Birmingham that the first case was a man who'd been at a conference in another part of the country.

Earlier (in Jan) we also heard of a man in Harborne who thought he had CV and had returned from travelling in Wuhan. He reported flu like symptoms but his test was negative

www.itv.com/news/central/2020-01-30/birmingham-man-told-he-is-clear-of-coronavirus/

At the start of February there was a parent at a local school who was returning from Hubei (neighbouring Wuhan). He deliberately flew out of there via another airport to avoid quarantine in the UK. He sent his daughter to school.
The parents knew he'd been and told the school as he had a 4 year old and a baby. Back then, the school asked the daughter to isolate just in case.
All was ok in the end, but guess there are other examples of this everywhere, so we won't know if it was where cases started, community trasmission or both.

But agree with Kings that our slow start could mean that it is our community transmission that saw our figures rise quickly.

Just thinking about Tesco Dudley. It's not an excuse but probably the layout caused in to be worse than other stores.

When I used to go I would park underground and then you would get an escalator up to the store. I think there were maybe only a couple of these?

If it has been the old Tesco before it had been rebuilt it would have been outside and there may have been more space.

I live in Walsall too and I'm terrified. Can't believe how many deaths there have been here.

Kingsheathen - I think we could all do with a gig in the Hare and Hounds right now. I also agree with you about all the demographics that will be causing us issues in Birmingham.

One thing I haven't worked out yet is how they are disentangling the cases from City and Sandwell hospitals which make up a single nhs Trust area. There is some patient movement between the two hospitals, so I'm not sure it's as simple as considering all City cases to be Birmingham patients.

As for Cumbria, WingedHarpy, sorry not to have got back sooner with a response. I am not entirely sure. I seem to remember - and someone please correct me - that Cumbria started reporting cases early, so it might be linked to a longer phase of community transmission? Also there is of course that rush of visitors to the Lakes.

Manchester’s figures are a bit misleading as Salford and Trafford include large areas that would be considered Manchester so if you add those in the numbers are much higher

The region's Trust figures are listed in this article:

www.expressandstar.com/news/health/coronavirus-covid19/2020/04/05/black-country-and-birmingham-coronavirus-death-toll-passes-500/

middle that is pretty scary! Seeing the numbers like that

Sorry, I know.

Yet I hear of regions with a handful of cases and a couple of deaths, hence my OP wondering why it's so high here.

And Birmingham has now made it to #1 hotspot

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8199363/UKs-coronavirus-crisis-kills-Briton-TWO-MINUTES-Birmingham-Englands-hotspot.html

And Birmingham has now made it to #1 hotspot

I guess a celebration parade is out of the question ? There must be a way to demonstrate civic pride, surely ? Any suggestions ?

So what's the explanation for the hotspot around Gwent/Aneurin Bevan Health Trust? Is that a half-term holiday influx too?

I'm honestly not surprised at all.

Well the city council only cancelled the St Patrick's Day parade last minute, way after Ireland cancelled....

Actually a quick google answers my own questions about why Gwent's a hotspot

That was for DG
We do love a big show bab, like Crufts. We welcome all international travellers to our station and airport mid pandemic.

I live about a mile from a huge Sikh community, and there are loads of multi generation families in the area. It's also been in our local paper that a lot of older people in Asian families haven't got their heads round social distancing. An Indian lady posted in a local Facebook group yesterday that she'd lost her brother and sister to COVID-19, and was urging people to obey the lockdown.

DGR You could all go outside and clap

There is a pattern in more than one country that suggests BAME populations are disproportionately affected. This may be because of poverty, overcrowding, higher risk of relevant diseases like diabetes, vitamin D deficiency etc. It’s very unclear at the moment but I suspect there will be a lot of research later.

I am in a London borough with a lot of cases. DH is North African and Muslim and neither he nor his friends have been meeting up to pray.

On the beat in Birmingham. While I'm sure every city centre still has those out and about, this won't be helping.

DH and DS go to work and school in the heart of the city and I am in no rush for them to go back.

DH was working in the middle of Birmingham until quite late in the day and I was relieved his bosses finally said he could wfh.

www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/shocking-truth-birmingham-city-centre-18057191